With the potential of a rookie quarterback starting for the Denver Broncos becoming ever more possible, the natural question that arises is: “How have rookie quarterbacks fared in the past?”
In the past five years (going back to the 2011 season), 17 rookie quarterbacks have started more than half of their team’s games. Of those seventeen, four have lead their team to a winning record, two have gone .500 and the other eleven have had a losing record. Before diving further into the numbers, it’s important to look at the Broncos situation, as they are in unprecedented territory.
Although some of the teams that have started a rookie quarterback in the past five years have had talented rosters, none have been reining Super Bowl champions like the Broncos. Typically, Super Bowl champions have an elite quarterback in his prime, or at least an above-average quarterback, and do not have to worry about finding his replacement the next season.
However, as every Broncos fan is well aware, the Broncos quarterback situation with Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler last year and this offseason has been anything but typical. With second-year player Trevor Siemian, veteran Mark Sanchez and rookie first-round pick Paxton Lynch on the team, there is a very good chance that Lynch will be the starter for most, if not all of the season, especially after John Elway and Gary Kubiak’s comments last week.
If this happens to be the case, what does this mean for the Broncos team next year? After breaking down the statistics of the 17 teams that have started rookies in the past five years, as long as the Broncos defense is anywhere close to what they were last year, Lynch would just need to be better than 10 other quarterbacks in the league.
The formula for determining how a team with a rookie quarterback has fared comes down to looking at two factors: The first is ranking the team’s defense, in terms of points given up, over the year, and the second is averaging the ranking of total passing yards and passing touchdowns of that team.
(NOTE: Even though the rookie quarterback may not have played in every game, to obtain the most accurate results, I needed to take the team’s passing yards and touchdowns, not just that specific rookie.)
Theory
For a team to have a winning record, they need to have either 1) above-average play from their rookie quarterback and at least average play from their defensive, or 2) have above-average play from their defense defensive and at least average play from the rookie quarterback. If neither of these is met, the team will not have a winning record.
To figure this out, I used Pro Football Reference statistics and a scale from 1-32 to rank the teams, with 1 being the best and 32 being the worst. Above average is from 1-11, average from 12-22 and below average from 23-32 in terms of ranking.
Results
Above .500 Teams
Above-Average Defense, Average QB Play
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (2012)
-Defense Ranking: 1
-QB Play Ranking Average: 18.5
Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals (2011)
-Defense Ranking: 9
-QB Play Ranking Average: 18.5
Average Defense, Above-Average QB Play
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts (2012)
-Defense Ranking: 21
-QB Play Ranking Average: 11.5
Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins (2012)
-Defense Ranking: 22
-QB Play Ranking Average: 16.5*
.500 Teams
Above-Average Defense, Below-Average QB Play
Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings (2014)
-Defense Ranking: 11
-QB Play Ranking Average: 28.5
Average Defense, Below-Average QB Play
Geno Smith, New York Jets (2013)
-Defense Ranking: 19
-QB Play Ranking Average: 31.5
Below .500 Teams
Below-Average Defense, Above-Average QB Play
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers (2011)
-Defense Ranking: 27
-QB Play Ranking Average: 13.5*
Below-Average Defense, Average QB Play
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2015)
-Defense Ranking: 26
-QB Play Ranking Average: 19.5
Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans (2015)
-Defense Ranking: 27
-QB Play Ranking Average: 22
Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders (2014)
-Defense Ranking: 32
-QB Play Ranking Average: 22.5
Above-Average Defense, Below-Average QB Play
Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins (2012)
-Defense Ranking: 7
-QB Play Ranking Average: 28
Blaine Gabbert, Jacksonville Jaguars (2011)
-Defense Ranking: 11
-QB Play Ranking Average: 31.5
Average Defense, Below-Average QB Play
Brandon Weeden, Cleveland Browns (2012)
-Defense Ranking: 19
-QB Play Ranking Average: 23.5
Mike Glennon, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2013)
-Defense Ranking: 21
-QB Play Ranking Average: 27
EJ Manuel, Buffalo Bills (2013)
-Defense Ranking: 20
-QB Play Ranking Average: 29.5
Below-Average Defense, Below-Average QB Play
Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars (2014)
-Defense Ranking: 26
-QB Play Ranking Average: 31
Christian Ponder, Minnesota Vikings (2011)
-Defense Ranking: 31
-QB Play Ranking Average: 24.5
(*Robert Griffin III and Cam Newton were put in the “Above Average QB Play” due to their additional, exceptional contributions. Griffin — 7 rushing TDs and 102.4 passer rating (third best in entire NFL). Newton — 14 rushing TDs.)
After exploring this list, you’ll notice that this theory is correct in every instance where it occurred in the past five years.
While this by no means is necessarily causation, it does show an interesting pattern that has been very consistent. During this process I looked at many variables to try to find conclusive data like this, including a teams running game. Surprisingly enough, the success of a team’s running game did not have much of a correlation to a team’s success with a rookie quarterback.
What it means for the Broncos
According to total points allowed, the Broncos were the fourth best defense last year, surrendering 296 in the regular season. Many would argue — rightfully so — that they were the best defense last year, but when boiling down the entire defense to one number, this seems to be the most fair statistic to use.
After losing two defensive starters in free agency, Malik Jackson to Jacksonville and Danny Trevathan to Chicago, and adding potential starter Jared Crick, the Broncos defense should be very similar in ranking to how it was last year. Whether the Broncos defense was No. 1 or No. 4 doesn’t really matter for this, as long as they are in the top 11 next season. As of now, it is very safe to assume that they will be at least a top-11 defense.
If the Broncos are in fact able to maintain a top-third defense, they would then need Lynch to be ranked as a top 22 quarterback, in terms of averaging passing yards rank with touchdowns rank. Of the 17 rookie quarterbacks to have the opportunity in the past five years, only seven have been able to do this: Wilson, Dalton, Luck, Griffin, Mariota, Newton and Winston.
While this is not impossible, the players that have done this in the past have either turned out to be very good quarterbacks in this league — Wilson, Dalton, Luck and Newton — or had a great rookie season — Griffin III, Winston and Mariota.
There certainly are factors that could impact this, such as a very strong running game, which is a very strong possibility, or this defense is even better than what it was last year and carries the team even with poor quarterback play.
However, it is interesting to see how much would have to be asked of Paxton Lynch, even if the Broncos have a great defense, for the Broncos to have a winning record next year.
On the other hand, there is a decent chance that Broncos may not even encounter this situation if they choose to go with Sanchez or Siemian at quarterback.
For complete statistics and data see below:
Above .500 Teams
Above Average Defense, Average QB Play
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (2012)
-Rookie Season Stats: 3,118 yards; 64.1%; 26 TDs; 10 INTs; 100.0 PR
-(Games Started/Games Played) and Record: (16/16); 11-5
-Offense Ranking: 9
-Defense Ranking: 1
-Passing Yards Ranking: 27
-Passing Touchdowns Ranking: 10
-QB Play Ranking Average: 18.5
-Rushing Ranking: 3
Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals (2011)
-3,398 yards; 58.1%; 20 TDs; 13 INTs; 80.4 PR
-(16/16); 9-7
-Offense Ranking: 18
-Defense Ranking: 9
-Passing Yards Ranking: 20
-Passing Touchdowns Ranking: 17
-QB Play Ranking Average: 18.5
-Rushing Ranking: 19
Average Defense, Above Average QB Play
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts (2012)
-4,374 yards; 54.1%; 23 TDs; 18 INTs; 76.5 PR
-(16/16); 11-5
-Offense Ranking: 18
-Defense Ranking: 21
-Passing Yards Ranking: 7
-Passing Touchdowns Ranking: 16
-QB Play Ranking Average: 11.5
-Rushing Ranking: 22
Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins (2012)
-3,200 yards; 65.6%; 20 TDs; 5 INTs; 102.4 PR
-(15/15); 9-6
-Offense Ranking: 4
-Defense Ranking: 22
-Passing Yards Ranking: 20
-Passing Touchdowns Ranking: 13
-QB Play Ranking Average: 16.5
-Rushing Ranking: 1
.500 Teams
Above Average Defense, Below Average QB Play
Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings (2014)
-2,919 yards; 64.4%; 14 TDs; 12 INTs; 85.2 PR
-(12/13); 6-6
-Offense Ranking: 20
-Defense Ranking: 11
-Passing Yards Ranking: 28
-Passing Touchdowns Ranking: 29
-QB Play Ranking Average: 28.5
-Rushing Ranking: 14
Average Defense, Below Average QB Play
Geno Smith, New York Jets (2013)
-3,046 yards; 55.8%; 12 TDs; 21 INTs; 66.5 PR
-(16/16); 8-8
-Offense Ranking: 29
-Defense Ranking: 19
-Passing Yards Ranking: 31
-Passing Touchdowns Ranking: 32
-QB Play Ranking Average: 31.5
-Rushing Ranking: 6
Below .500 Teams
Below Average Defense, Above Average QB Play
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers (2011)
-4,051 yards; 60.0%; 21 TDs; 17 INTs; 84.5 PR
-(16/16); 6-10
-Offense Ranking: 5
-Defense Ranking: 27
-Passing Yards Ranking: 13
-Passing Touchdowns Ranking: 14
-QB Play Ranking Average: 13.5
-Rushing Ranking: 3
Below Average Defense, Average QB Play
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2015)
-4,042 yards; 58.3%; 22 TDs; 15 INTs; 84.2 PR
-(16/16); 6-10
-Offense Ranking: 20
-Defense Ranking: 26
-Passing Yards Ranking: 17
-Passing Touchdowns Ranking: 22
-QB Play Ranking Average: 19.5
-Rushing Ranking: 5
Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans (2015)
-2,818 yards; 62.2%; 19 TDs; 10 INTs; 91.5 PR
-(12/12); 3-9
-Offense Ranking: 28
-Defense Ranking: 27
-Passing Yards Ranking: 26
-Passing Touchdowns Ranking: 18
-QB Play Ranking Average: 22
-Rushing Ranking: 25
Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders (2014)
-3,270 yards; 58.1%; 21 TDs; 12 INTs; 76.6 PR
-(16/16); 3-13
-Offense Ranking: 31
-Defense Ranking: 32
-Passing Yards Ranking: 26
-Passing Touchdowns Ranking: 19
-QB Play Ranking Average: 22.5
-Rushing Ranking: 32
Above Average Defense, Below Average QB Play
Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins (2012)
-3,294 yards; 58.3%; 12 TDs; 13 INTs; 76.1 PR
-(16/16); 7-9
-Offense Ranking: 27
-Defense Ranking: 7
-Passing Yards Ranking: 26
-Passing Touchdowns Ranking: 30
-QB Play Ranking Average: 28
-Rushing Ranking: 17
Blaine Gabbert, Jacksonville Jaguars (2011)
-2,214 yards; 50.8%; 12 TDs; 11 INTs; 65.4 PR
-(14/14); 4-10
-Offense Ranking: 28
-Defense Ranking: 11
-Passing Yards Ranking: 32
-Passing Touchdowns Ranking: 31
-QB Play Ranking Average: 31.5
-Rushing Ranking: 12
Average Defense, Below Average QB Play
Brandon Weeden, Cleveland Browns (2012)
-3,385 yards; 57.4%; 14 TDs; 17 INTs; 72.6 PR
-(15/15); 5-10
-Offense Ranking: 24
-Defense Ranking: 19
-Passing Yards Ranking: 19
-Passing Touchdowns Ranking: 28
-QB Play Ranking Average: 23.5
-Rushing Ranking: 24
Mike Glennon, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2013)
-2,608 yards; 55.8%; 19 TDs; 9 INTs; 83.9 PR
-(13/13); 4-9
-Offense Ranking: 30
-Defense Ranking: 21
-Passing Yards Ranking: 32
-Passing Touchdowns Ranking: 22
-QB Play Ranking Average: 27
-Rushing Ranking: 22
EJ Manuel, Buffalo Bills (2013)
-1,972 yards; 58.8%; 11 TDs; 9 INTs; 77.7 PR
-(10/10); 4-6
-Offense Ranking: 22
-Defense Ranking: 20
-Passing Yards Ranking: 28
-Passing Touchdowns Ranking: 31
-QB Play Ranking Average: 29.5
-Rushing Ranking: 2
Below Average Defense, Below Average QB Play
Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars (2014)
-2,908 yards; 58.9%; 11 TDs; 17 INTs; 69.5 PR
-(13/14); 3-10
-Offense Ranking: 32
-Defense Ranking: 26
-Passing Yards Ranking: 31
-Passing Touchdowns Ranking: 31
-QB Play Ranking Average: 31
-Rushing Ranking: 21
Christian Ponder, Minnesota Vikings (2011)
-1,853 yards; 54.3%; 13 TDs; 13 INTs; 70.1 PR
-(10/11); 2-8
-Offense Ranking: 19
-Defense Ranking: 31
-Passing Yards Ranking: 28
-Passing Touchdowns Ranking: 21
-QB Play Ranking Average: 24.5
-Rushing Ranking: 4
