Winning isn’t just about being good; it’s about capitalizing on opportunities when they present themselves.
Over the last three years, the Denver Nuggets have done everything right — they accumulated assets, they hit on their draft picks, they hired a coach their players could believe in and they built a legitimate buzz around the franchise. The attendance may be abysmal, but basketball heads around the league have been following the Nuggets with an eager eye for over a year now.
This team was close.
No, they weren’t going to win a championship this year or the next, but they had the pieces to grow into something special, especially if they could convert some of those assets into a big-name player, a superstar.
And that all holds true; the upside is still sky high for guys like Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic and even Emmanuel Mudiay, and if a superstar does become available, there aren’t many teams who will be able to offer as large of a haul as Denver can.
But there’s another aspect to this rebuild that many of us have failed to consider: time.
If Danilo Gallinari opts out of his $16.1 million contract this offseason, which most everyone expects him to do, the Denver Nuggets will have nearly $40 million in cap space this offseason — $40 million! That’s nearly enough for two max-contract players.
Great news, right?
Sure, but only if you spend that money wisely. Otherwise, the Denver Nuggets could end up giving out huge sums of money to mediocre players, tying up their cap space for years to come — à la the Portland Trail Blazers.
Coming into this season, Tim Connelly’s No. 1 goal needed to be growing this organization to the point that a top-tier free agent, a guy worthy of upwards of $20 million a year, would consider signing with the Denver Nuggets this offseason. And while teams find plenty of ways to recruit players, there’s only one thing this franchise will ever be able to do to convince stars to come to the Mile High City: win.
If Denver found a way to inch towards 45 victories, with one or two of their young studs developing into true cornerstones, then maybe a guy like Blake Griffin, Chris Paul or Gordon Hayward considers joining the Nuggets. Maybe they would consider it even more if Denver had brought in another star, the “first” star, in a midseason trade; everyone knows the best bait for catching superstars is another superstar.
Instead, the Nuggets sit at 8-15, with potential assets like Kenneth Faried, Mudiay and Jusuf Nurkic losing value every day.
At the rate they’re going, the Nuggets will win 29 games, fall back into the lottery and see the future of their “core” come into question. That’s not the type of season that will entice top-tier free agents to choose Denver over a more high-profile destination.
So where do they go from here?
The way I see it, the Nuggets have two options: capitalize on the assets they do have, or ride out the season as is and hope some superstar (John Wall, Klay Thompson, Paul George, etc.) becomes available in the offseason.
I would strongly advice the Nuggets to go with option No. 1.
Option No. 2 takes the control out of Connelly and the Nuggets’ hands. They can have all the assets in the world, but if nobody is willing to offload their franchise player, the Nuggets are left up the creek without a paddle.
If they capitalize on their assets now, at least they can control the outcome. Whether that means trading for a borderline All Star and hoping that they can improve enough that they can capitalize on free agency this summer, or blowing everything up and attacking the 2017 draft with everything they have, they have to move fast.
The Nuggets can’t be mediocre; they either need to be good or bad, and the longer they wait, the less likely that becomes.
Tim Connelly earns the big bucks for a reason, and it’s time he makes the franchise-defining move we’ve been waiting for.
