Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Betting Prediction, Picks (April 28, 2021)

avalanche golden knights pick
Apr 9, 2021; Anaheim, California, USA; Colorado Avalanche left wing Gabriel Landeskog (92) moves the puck up ice against the Anaheim Ducks during the third period at Honda Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The Colorado Avalanche were brought back to earth their last two times out, losing consecutive games in regulation for the first time since in over two months. In between, the Avalanche were an otherworldly 22-3-3. They will look to bounce back tonight with an important showdown against the Vegas Golden Knights.

Let’s take a look at this matchup, the seventh of eight meetings between Colorado and Vegas, from a betting perspective in our Avalanche vs. Golden Knights betting preview with odds, picks and predictions.

Despite Colorado’s incredible run, it wasn’t enough to catch Vegas. As well as the Avalanche have played for the past two months, the Golden Knights basically said, hold my beer. They have won nine straight games and 10 of their last 11. In the process, the Knights passed Colorado and now lead the West Division by four points, although the Avalanche have a game in-hand.

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Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Betting Pick

The series between arguably the two best teams in the NHL has been nip and tuck all season. Each team has won three times, and the Avalanche have outscored the Golden Knights by a narrow 13-12 margin. That total of 25 goals in six games should also tell you that these teams tend to play low-scoring, defensive affairs against one another, despite being the two teams with the greatest goal differential in the NHL.

Colorado has the highest goals for per game played in the league (3.52) and Vegas is fourth (3.38), yet, against one another, they only average 2.17 and 2.00, respectively.

Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Odds

Here are the lines for Avalanche vs. Golden Knights at DraftKings Sportsbook:

Spread: Spread: Avalanche (+1.5 -235), Golden Knights (-1.5 +190)
Moneyline:
Avalanche (+114); Golden Knights (-132)
Over/Under:
Over 5.5 (-120)/Under 5.5 (-103)

Bets We Like With an Avalanche Win

Nathan MacKinnon OVER 1 points (-146, FanDuel)

Tired of seeing us tell you to bet MacKinnon? Not if you’ve been betting his player props. He has a 14-game point streak going, so as long as he gets one point, you don’t lose. It should also make you feel good that he has points in 21 of his last 22 games. That means it’s almost certain this bet does not lose, but it could push.

You need MacKinnon to have a multi-point game, which he’s done 12 times in his last 22 contests. If the Avalanche are going to snap the Vegas win streak, MacKinnon is going to have to be at his best, so you would think getting two points is a legit possibility.

MacKinnon is -305 on DraftKings to get at least one point. If you’re betting with your head and not worried about the bankroll, then you shouldn’t be scared to lay that much wood.

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Bets We Like With a Blues Win

Max Pacioretty OVER 1 point (+130, Fan Duel) or Pacioretty 1+ points (-195, DraftKings)

Pacioretty has had a resurgent season for the Golden Knights and is in the midst of a hot streak in which he has points in seven straight games (3-9-12). We always believe in riding a hot hand, which is why the -195 doesn’t scare us on him to register at least one point.

But also note that Pacioretty has four multi-point games on this nine-game winning streak for Vegas, which makes the bet at FanDuel so appealing. Get just one point, and it’s a push. Get two or more, and you are cashing at 1.3x your bet — a good deal and good probability, whether Vegas wins or not.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Avalanche to win and OVER 5.5 goals (+290, DraftKings)

We talked about how these teams always seem to play low-scoring games, despite both squads having high-powered offenses. A lot of that though is predicated on good goaltending. It looks like Avalanche goalie Phillip Grubauer will not play in this one despite coming off the COVID-19 protocol Tuesday. Knowing they’ll have a backup goalie in net, Colorado will look to push the pace, and Vegas will likely oblige because they’ve proven they can win games in all kinds of games, including up-tempo, higher-scoring affairs.

As good as the Avalanche are, you rarely see them as an underdog, so simply taking them to win at +114 is a value bet in and of itself.

With a backup goalie in net and two high-powered offenses going head-to-head in a game that means more to Colorado, getting the Avalanche at +290 in a higher-scoring game provides huge value — especially since Colorado hasn’t lost three straight games all season.

Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Prediction

Colorado wants to win the division. To do so, they will need to win this game. Vegas will both skate and score with them, and maybe even beat them in this battle of two of the NHL’s best teams. But Colorado is too good of a team to lose three straight, and Vegas is due for a loss. This is the perfect storm, although we expect a heck of a hockey game.

Pick: Avalanche 4, Golden Knights 3

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