When the Broncos and the Patriots meet on Sunday, the under is the best play available. We get it, betting overs is way more fun and so far this year, unders have not been as profitable, but this Broncos vs. Patriots matchup is different.
|Broncos||+10 (-120)||+375||O 45 (-110)|
|Patriots||-10 (-103)||-455||U 45 (-110)|
Broncos vs. Patriots Under Trends
So far this season, overs have hit way more than unders, but the tide is turning. Oddsmakers seem to have readjusted to the craziness of the 2020 season and it’s no longer the smart play to just blindly take the over.
During Week 5, the balance between overs and unders hitting was completely even. Seven unders hit and seven overs hit. Similarly, both the Broncos and the Patriots are 2-2 on over-unders so far this season. So immediately we can determine that the over is not a complete lock in this matchup.
The Broncos (20.5) and Patriots (24.3) are combining to average just under 45 points per game. When it comes to the defensive numbers, the Broncos (24.5) and Patriots (23.0) are combining to go slightly over our total points mark of 45.
Now that we’ve established that the over-under is set to a reasonable number, let’s dive deeper to figure out why the under is the smartest play here.
Quarterbacks Return After Long Layoff
I know what you are thinking: Both teams are getting their quarterbacks back this week. Why would that point to the under?
Well, it’s not just about the quarterbacks returning. The Broncos and Patriots are both coming off of long layoffs with the bye week and that favors Bill Belichick and the Patriots. Under Belichick, New England is 15-5 after the bye week.
Even with Drew Lock coming back for the Broncos, Belichick has had extra time to prepare for the young passer. That is bad news for the Broncos and bad news for over betters.
Add in the fact that Lock struggles on the road and it’s a recipe for a low-scoring game for Denver. Lock’s passer rating is a full 10 points lower on the road in his career and his completion percentage drops from 67.21% at home to 56.94% on the road.
Cam Newton is back after testing positive for COVID-19 and missing Week 4. He’s an obvious upgrade over Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham, but after missing so much practice time, it’s reasonable to expect the Patriots offense to have a little bit of rust.
Broncos vs. Patriots Best Bet
Even if they do come out in a rhythm, ground and pound with Newton in the running game seems to be the gameplan rather than airing it out downfield. New England’s strong defense coupled with a commitment to running the football makes the under the best play here.
Broncos vs. Patriots Pick
So what are you waiting for? This is easily the best play of the week for Broncos vs. Patriots and you should try and get this at 45 before the line moves.