Broncos vs. Falcons Betting Update: We Love Denver With The Points

Denver Broncos quarterback Drew Lock (3) attempts a pass in the second quarter against the Tennessee Titans at Empower Field at Mile High.
Sep 14, 2020; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Drew Lock (3) attempts a pass in the second quarter against the Tennessee Titans at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Week 9 of the NFL season is a big one for teams looking to make a playoff positioning and the Denver Broncos are right there in the mix. Let’s dive into our Broncos vs. Falcons betting preview with oddspicks, and predictions.

Broncos vs. Falcons Odds

The Broncos are the underdog for yet another week at +4.5 on most sportsbooks. This is becoming a theme for Denver even though they are winners of three of their last four games.

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The Broncos are +4.5 on the spread line and +180 on the moneyline over at FanDuel Sportsbook Colorado. The total is set to 50.

Here are the current odds on Broncos vs. Falcons.

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Broncos +4.5 (-112) +180 O 50 (-110)
Falcons -4.5 (-108) -215 U 50 (-110)

 

Preview

The Broncos have the NFC South on the schedule this year which means a meeting with the Atlanta Falcons was inevitable. It just so happens that the Falcons are catching the Broncos at a bad time.

Denver has won three of their last four games and Drew Lock is entering this game with a little bit of momentum after his second-half comeback against the Los Angeles Chargers last week.

On the flip side, the Falcons have won their Week 8 game against the Carolina Panthers on Thursday Night Football. They have had an extended week to prepare for this game and they will be the home team. Of course, playing at home is less of an advantage in 2020, but not having to travel is a positive.

Will the Broncos (3-4) continue to build momentum in Week 9 or will the Falcons (2-6) send them home with a loss? Find out in our Broncos vs. Falcons betting preview with odds, picks, and predictions.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook Colorado:

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Broncos +4 (-110) +175 O 50 (-110)
Falcons -4 (-110) -200 U 50 (-110)

 

Win Probability

Judging by the spread and moneyline on this game, Atlanta is the favorite, but only by slim margins. The Broncos’ +175 moneyline implies an approximate 36% chance to win.

However, FiveThirtyEight’s popular ELO model has the Falcons as a much tighter favorite. Instead of a 4.5-point spread, the Broncos are the underdogs by a single point. They also have a 46% chance at victory according to the ELO model.

That’s a significant swing in the numbers. This is the quarterback-adjusted model so it’s possible that Lock’s huge second half has something to do with this close ELO model.

How to Watch Broncos vs. Falcons

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 8
  • Time: 11:05 p.m. MT
  • Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, Georgia)
  • TV: CBS
  • Announcers: Greg Gumbel (play-by-play), Rich Gannon (game analyst), and Jay Feely (sideline reporter)

H2 How To Bet Broncos vs. Falcons

There are a ton of places for Colorado bettors to bet on Broncos vs. Falcons. DraftKings, FanDuel, and William Hill are a few of our favorite places. Each book has very similar odds on this one right now.

Broncos backers can get an extra half-point on FanDuel Sportsbook. Both DraftKings and William Hill have Denver at +4 right now.

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Broncos vs. Falcons Betting Trends

Why Backing The Broncos Makes Sense

Broncos Crush Spreads

The Broncos have dominated oddsmakers so far this year. They are 5-2 against the spread this year despite being an underdog in all eight games they have played. The Falcons are just 3-5 ATS in 2020.

Drew Lock Finally Emerges?

Drew Lock has all the tools of a legitimate NFL quarterback. He has the size, athleticism, and arm talent to be a real force for the Broncos.

Unfortunately, he has not been consistent enough for the world to truly buy in yet. But if last week’s second-half is any indication, he may have figured some things out. The Falcons will be a good test for the second-year quarterback.

Why Backing The Falcons Makes Sense

Long Week Of Preparation

The Falcons have had a long week to prepare for this game. Anytime a veteran quarterback and former MVP like Matt Ryan can have that extra time, it’s bad news for the other team.

That extra time off also gives the Falcons time to rest and recover. At this point in the season, every team is dealing with injuries. Calvin Ridley is questionable, but Julio Jones is good to go after being banged up here and there this year.

Due For A Home Win

This might sound silly, but the Falcons are due for a win at home. They are 0-4 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium this season and two of those losses came in the form of fourth-quarter collapses.

Eventually, the Falcons will break their streak of home losses. Will they win by enough to cover that 4.5-point spread? We shall see.

Total Points

Both of these teams are a mixed bag when it comes to the total. The Broncos are 4-3 while the Falcons are 4-4 on over-unders this year. Atlanta can light it up when Ryan and Jones are connecting.

They are also prone to late-game collapses which seems to bode well for the over. We don’t love taking the total in this game, but the over seems like the right play if we had to choose.

Broncos vs. Falcons Betting Prediction

Now, let’s get down to the nitty-gritty. The Broncos are rolling right now and Drew Lock seems to be turning a corner. However, the Falcons are a much better team than their 2-6 record would suggest. There’s just something about Georgia and failing to protect massive leads.

It’s going to take some faith to invest in Lock in this Week 9 matchup, but this seems like a game that the Broncos can win. If not, we believe that they can keep it close enough to cover that spread.

Atlanta ranks 31st in passing yards allowed per game. If there was ever a team that Drew Lock could take advantage of, it’s the Falcons.

And given what we know about the Falcons playing with a lead, the Broncos will be in this game even if they go down early. Their huge victory against the Chargers showed that we should never count them out.

Broncos vs. Falcons Betting Pick

Take the Broncos getting the points.

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