Broncos vs. Raiders Betting Pick and Prediction: All-in On the Over

Broncos pick prediction odds

The Broncos and Raiders will meet for the first time all season in Week 10 and this AFC West battle has playoff implications. Let’s jump into our Broncos vs. Raiders betting preview with oddspicks, and predictions.

Broncos vs. Raiders Odds

The Broncos are the road dog yet again and this week they are +4.5 against the Raiders at FOX Bet Colorado. The total is at 50.5 as of November 27, 2020 10:17 AM.

 

Here are the current Broncos vs. Raiders odds.

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Broncos +4.5 (-110) +170 O 50.5 (-118)
Raiders -4.5 (-105) -200 U 50.5 (+100)

 

DraftKings Sportsbook Colorado

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Broncos +4 (-110) +175 O 50.5 (-110)
Raiders -4 (-110) -200 U 50.5 (-110)

How to Bet Broncos vs. Raiders

The best place to bet on the Broncos this weekend is at FOX Bet where they are offering new users the chance to turn $1 into $50 if the Broncos can manage to score one point against the Raiders.

That’s a low-risk, high-ceiling offer for new users who sign up with FOX Bet. You won’t find an easier way to win money on the Broncos this weekend.

Click here to grab this special offer on the Broncos at FOX Bet.

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Broncos-Raiders Betting Preview

The Broncos (3-5) are going to need to right the ship after last week’s loss if they want to stay in the playoff hunt. They are currently two games behind the Raiders (5-3) for the seventh and final spot in the AFC. But keep in mind that the NFL could expand the playoffs to eight teams per conference if there are any more game cancelations due to COVID-19.

Long story short, the Broncos are not out of the playoff picture by any stretch of the imagination. Nonetheless, this is a massive game for Denver.

This is a good opportunity for Drew Lock to continue cementing himself as the franchise quarterback. The Raiders are 31st in the NFL with just nine sacks on the season, so he should have time to make throws. Will he be able to take advantage of that weak pass rush on Sunday?

Find out in our Broncos vs. Raiders betting preview with odds, picks, and predictions.

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Win Probability

Let’s take a look at some popular ways to assess win probability in the NFL. No system is perfect, but the odds and FiveThirtyEight’s ELO model can give us some insight into this game.

According to the +170 moneyline at FOX Bet, the Broncos have about a 37% chance at winning on Sunday. FiveThirtyEight’s quarterback-adjusted ELO model has Denver’s winning percentage at 36%. The odds and the ELO model are on the same page this week.

Where Is The Money Going?

It’s worth noting that this line has seen some up-and-down movement throughout the week. It opened at Raiders -4 on Monday, rose all the way as high as -5.5, but came back down to -4 on Friday. It’s moving multiple times per day, but it’s right back where it started.

The public money is going to the Raiders at a high rate. At DraftKings Sportsbook, Las Vegas is bringing in 85% of the total handle on the spread line and 78% on the moneyline. Not many people are willing to put their faith in the Broncos this week.

How to Watch Broncos vs. Raiders

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 15
  • Time: 2:05 p.m. MT
  • Location: Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas, Nevada)
  • TV: CBS
  • Announcers: Kevin Harlan (play-by-play), Trent Green (game analyst), and Melanie Collins (sideline reporter)

Broncos vs. Raiders Betting Trends

Why Backing the Broncos Makes Sense

Raiders Weak Pass Rush

We alluded to this earlier, but the lack of pass rush from the Raiders could be a huge factor on Sunday. Drew Lock has shown that he can put up big games when he is comfortable in the pocket. If the Denver offensive line can keep him upright, he could go off for another big game.

The Raiders are giving up 267.1 passing yards per game and allowing quarterbacks to put up a passer rating of 97.4 which is bad enough for 21st in the NFL.

Jerry Jeudy is Starting to Emerge

Jerry Jeudy can be a dominant receiver in the NFL. He has too much talent to fail and he put together the best game of his career in Week 9 against the Falcons. Jeudy caught seven balls for 125 yards and a touchdown. He notched his career-high for targets, catches, and reception yards all in one game.

Lock and Jeudy appear to be getting on the same page, but they still have some room for improvement. Jeudy was targeted 14 times (which is a good thing), but only caught 50% of balls thrown his way. As Lock and Jeudy continue to build chemistry, look for that percentage to go up.

Why Backing the Raiders Makes Sense

The Broncos Have a Below-Average Defense

The Broncos are not terrible on defense, but this isn’t the ’85 Bears we’re talking about. They are 22nd in scoring defense (27.1), 17th in rush defense (119.5), and 17th in pass defense (240.9).

The Raiders have a balanced attack offensively with Derek Carr doing a good job holding it all together. The veteran passer has 16 touchdowns against just two interceptions on the season. Meanwhile, Josh Jacobs and Devontae Booker are forming a nice 1-2 punch in the backfield.

Darren Waller Goes Off

Darren Waller is already one of the premier tight ends in the game and if Denver can’t hold him down, they are going to have a tough time hanging with Las Vegas. Waller already has 50 catches for 393 yards and four touchdowns this season. He’s a go-to guy for Carr and a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses.

Waller is one of the most athletic tight ends in the NFL, so he can overpower smaller defensive backs and outrun linebackers. Shutting off Waller is going to be one of the keys to Sunday’s game.

How To Bet The Total

This total is set to 50.5 at FOX Bet and the play is to hammer the over here. The Raiders are 7-1 on the season on the over and the Broncos are a solid 5-3. Las Vegas games tend to turn into shootouts and Denver has shown that they are capable of hanging tough in these types of games.

Broncos vs. Raiders Prediction

If nothing else, this should be a close game that comes down to the wire. With so much familiarity between these two teams and so much on the line in terms of playoff positioning, we expect this to be an exciting game to watch.

What does that mean for bettors? Well, it could go either way, but Lock’s struggles on the road and the Raiders’ ability to score in bunches has us leaning towards Raiders -4 in this game.

This game could go back and forth for three quarters before the Raiders take back control in the fourth for good. They seem to be slightly more consistent than the Broncos this season and we’ll take the veteran quarterback over the second-year guy.

With all that said, don’t forget about the over in this game.

Broncos vs. Raiders Pick

Avoid taking the spread line on this AFC West rivalry game and go with the over on the total at 50.5.

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