Broncos vs. Titans Betting Preview: Why the Over Will Hit

Broncos vs. Titans betting preview
Drew Lock throws deep to Courtland Sutton with eight seconds to play. Credit: Ron Chenoy, USA TODAY Sports.

Week 1 of the NFL regular season comes to a close in Denver on Monday night, so let’s jump right into our Broncos vs. Titans betting preview in search of a winner to finish things out on a winning note.

Preview

The Titans and Broncos meet in Denver for the second straight season, and for the second straight season, the Titans are hoping the trip spurs a big run. Despite limping to a 16-0 loss in last season’s matchup, the meeting would serve as the turning point for Tennessee. The team turned to Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, who led a 7-3 finish to the regular season and a pair of improbable postseason wins.

Click here to get $1,000 in free bets and the Broncos or Titans at 100-1 odds with DraftKings Sportsbook.

That memorable run helped spark sky-high expectations for the AFC South favorites, but they’re not the only team that will take the field tonight that is thinking about a big start to the 2020 season. Following the failed Joe Flacco experiment, the Broncos turned things over to Drew Lock, who impressed while leading Denver to a 4-1 finish a season ago. While Kansas City is the unanimous pick to capture the AFC West crown, Denver’s strong finish has many fans thinking playoffs heading into this season.

Will it be Tennessee that opens with a big road win, or will Denver pull the upset and get things rolling from the start? Let’s find out in our Broncos vs. Titans betting preview with odds, picks, and predictions.

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Broncos vs. Titans Odds

Note: Remember, tonight marks the first time Colorado sports bettors can legally wager on a Denver Broncos game.

The Titans were roughly a field goal favorite when the Week 1 lines were released over the summer, and despite significant betting interest on this football game, the line has essentially remained unchanged.

As of Monday morning, the Titans are a three-point and -175 moneyline favorite. Meanwhile, the Broncos check in at +150 on the moneyline, while the total is set at a relatively low 41 points.

Here’s a look at the current Broncos vs. Titans Week 1 odds (as of late Monday morning):

DraftKings Sportsbook Colorado

      Spread     Money        Total
Titans         -3 (-114)       -175   O 41 (-110)
Broncos        +3 (-107)      +150   U 41 (-110)

 

FanDuel Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Titans        -3 (-110)      -166   O 40.5 (-110)
Broncos        +3 (-110)      +140   U 40.5 (-110)

 

It’s worth noting that tonight’s game is the last chance to grab any NFL team in Week 1 at 100-1 odds with DraftKings (get the offer here). That means new players can essentially disregard both the current point spread and moneyline odds. Pick either the Titans or the Broncos to win. Then, bet $1, and if you’re team wins the game outright, get $100 back.

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Win Probability

Let’s take a closer look at how the current Broncos vs. Titans odds compare with FiveThirtyEight’s popular ELO model. According to ELO, the Titans should be a one-point favorite and have a 54% chance of winning the football game. Comparing these two models, it would suggest there’s two full points of point spread value on the Broncos.

Meanwhile, a -175 moneyline price carries with it a 63.6% implied win probability. However, ELO’s 54% probability translates to a -117 moneyline price. In short, the model believes the Titans are significantly overpriced and that the Broncos are the value play in this situation.

Where Is the Money Going?

Let’s take a quick look at the Titans-Broncos betting splits.

As of Monday morning, the Titans are receiving a vast majority of spread bets (70%) and spread money (68%). There was some thought that perhaps this spread could shrink to under a field goal, but it would take substantial Monday money to get this line off the key number of -3.

As for the total, bettors are overwhelmingly on the over. Currently, 64% of all totals wagers are on the over, while an astounding 87% of the money is on the same side.

How to Watch Broncos vs. Titans

  • Date: Monday, September 14
  • Time: 8:20 p.m. MT
  • Location: Empower Field at Mile High
  • Network: ESPN
  • Announcers: Steve Levy (play-by-play), Brian Griese and Louis Riddick (analysts), Lisa Salters (sideline)

Note: Kirk Herbstreit, Chris Fowler, and Maria Taylor get the Giants-Steelers opener, while the new Monday Night Football booth of Levy, Griese, Riddick, and Salters gets the second game.

How to Bet on Broncos vs. Titans

There’s significant value on the board tonight for those betting on this football game.

As mentioned above, this is the last opportunity for bettors to take advantage of DraftKings’ 100-1 odds on any NFL team to win in Week 1 (along with its $1,000 of free bets). You can get these offers by clicking here.

Meanwhile, FOX Bet Colorado has $1,000 of free bets and a double your money promo on the Broncos to score tonight. That’s a big time deal that lets bettors wager $25 and cash a $50 payout if Denver puts at least one touchdown on the board tonight. Get that offer here.

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Colorado

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Broncos vs. Titans Betting Trends

Note: All trends date back to the start of the 2003 season, unless otherwise indicated.

Why Backing the Broncos Makes Sense

Week 1 Underdogs Bark

Primetime underdogs are 41-31-3 ATS (57%) in Week 1. From a more general perspective, NFL home underdogs are 65-54-2 ATS in primetime, dating back to the 2016 season.

Short Spreads Pay For Dogs

Home underdogs of three points or less are 48-33-7 ATS in primetime since the start of the 2015 season.That’s good for a $1,247 return on investment for the average $100 bettor.

Head-to-head Dominance

Without question, Denver has gotten the better of the head-to-head matchup in recent seasons. In fact, Denver is 5-2 straight up and 6-1 ATS against the Titans in the last seven meetings between the two teams. Meanwhile, the Broncos are also 6-0 in their last six games at Mile High against the Titans.

Why Backing Titans Makes Sense

Finishing Strong

The Titans have significant momentum heading into this one – and that includes against the spread, too. Tennessee finished 7-3 straight up and against the spread to close the 2019 season (including playoffs).

A Note on the Total

A Strong Trend

Denver finished last season by becoming one of the best over teams in the game, which probably explains why such an overwhelming amount of the money is on that side this evening. The Broncos went over the total in 8 of their final 11 games last season.

Broncos vs. Titans Prediction

Last season, the Titans demonstrated just how dangerous they can be in ripping off a 7-3 close to the regular season before going into New England and Baltimore to pull of a pair of shocking upsets.

They play sound defense, Derrick Henry is a nightmare for opposing defenses, and Ryan Tannehill makes enough plays to keep them honest. Certainly, Tennessee found a winning formula late in the season, and most experts believe they’re likely to carry over that success into 2020.

That being said, 2019 momentum meant very little around the league in Week 1, and it’s not as if Denver is without momentum of its own as it finished with a 4-1 record down the stretch.

Typically, I like to side against the public and take the home underdog, simply because the trends overwhelmingly suggest this is the correct play. That said, I have concerns about the availability and/or effectiveness of wide receiver Courtland Sutton. If he doesn’t play, that drastically alters the explosiveness of the Denver offense.

I don’t love either side in this game, and I’m not going to force it – my lean is on the Broncos with the three points, but I’m going to look to the total for my pick.

Tennessee and Denver are both viewed as defense-first teams that are complimented by opportunistic offenses. However, I look at two things here. The first is that the Broncos actually were one of the better over plays last season. After getting shutout on the road in Denver a year ago, I believe Tennessee’s offense can and will bounce back in this spot.

The second part of the equation is that with the total sitting at an attainable 40.5 to 41 points, there should be enough pop plays (on both sides of the ball) that the over hits.

Bets We Like

The Broncos to score at least one touchdown (+100 odds) at FOX Bet (get it here).

New players at DraftKings Sportsbook: Get the Broncos (or any team on Monday night) to win at 100-1 odds (get it here).

Broncos vs. Titans Pick

The official pick is over 41 points.

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