No. 5 seed Colorado and No. 4 seed Florida State square off this evening with a spot in the Sweet 16 on the line. While the remaining field currently consists of a number of Cinderella squads, the Buffaloes and Seminoles are two teams that survived the opening round chaos for a right to go at it in the Round of 32.
Let’s jump into this NCAA Tournament second round matchup between Colorado and Florida State with a look at the odds before providing some picks and predictions.
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Colorado vs. Florida State Betting Odds and Pick
Here is a look at the current Colorado vs. Florida State betting odds, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
|Colorado||+1.5 (-110)||+104||O 141 (-110)|
|Florida State||-1.5 (-110)||-124||U 141 (-110)|
The Seminoles took care of business against a UNC-Greensboro team many believed was in position ahead of that matchup to pull off an upset. Meanwhile, Colorado made an emphatic statement against Big East champ Georgetown, blowing out the Hoyas in what has been a rare tournament laugher.
Ahead of what is expected to be a tightly contested game, there are plenty of reasons to think both teams will move onto the Sweet 16 next weekend.
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Why Colorado Will Win
The Buffaloes enter winners in seven of their last eight games, with six of those victories coming against teams that qualified for the NCAA Tournament.
After heating up down the stretch, Colorado’s offense used a stunning 96-point outburst against an ascending Georgetown squad, putting the rest of the field on notice in regards to its elite offensive potential.
That potential was on full display against UNC-Greensboro as Colorado drained a staggering 16 of 25 attempts from beyond the arc (64%). Facilitating that performance was fantastic ball movement that generated 27 assists.
While that performance was a bit of an outlier, Colorado remains one of the nation’s better three-point shooting teams (54th in the nation) and should be able to find plenty of clean looks against a Florida State team that doesn’t defend the perimeter particularly well (197th in the nation).
While Florida State, which has covered just one of its last six games, does a fine job from the free throw line, Colorado is the nation’s best team from the stripe, connecting on 83.4% of attempts. If oddsmakers sized this one up correctly, this figures to be a one or two-possession game late, and the Buffaloes outstanding work from the free throw line could be the difference.
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Why Florida State Will Win
If we’re going to mention Colorado’s elite offensive capabilities, then it’s worth noting Florida State can be lethal from beyond the arc.
The Seminoles enter as the nation’s 12th-best team from deep at 38.3 percent, and they should be effective against a Colorado squad that also doesn’t excel at defending from long range.
The key for Florida State will be protecting the basketball, something that they have often struggled to do down the stretch, particularly in their ACC Tournament Championship Game loss to Georgia Tech.
In terms of how the Seminoles’ offensive prowess factors into betting angles, it’s worth noting that they went over the total in 16 of 23 contests this season, including in 11 of 15 games when favored.
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Colorado vs. Florida State Prediction
Admittedly, I’ve been a bit down on the PAC-12 this season, but the conference has acquitted itself nicely in this year’s tournament. Colorado finished hot down the stretch, while Florida State has been shaky, including during its most recent win over UNC-Greensboro.
Given the current odds on this game, it’s not exactly a stunner to say these teams match up evenly. That being said, Colorado is playing better basketball right now, and this feels like an opportune spot to keep things going.
One additional note, I’d strongly consider taking a look at the over in this game. Florida State has cashed the over in 11 of 15 games as a favorite this season, while neither team is particularly good at defending its opponent’s strengths.
Finally, it’s worth noting that Florida State closed the season by playing several games over the total, finishing with an 8-2 mark to the over during its last 10 games, while Colorado has hit the over in 8 of 10 games on neutral courts.
Colorado vs. Florida State Pick
Take Colorado +1.5 and OVER 141 points.