Through Week 10, the official record will show that the 3-6 Denver Broncos rank 20th in the NFL in total offense — aka yards per game. With an average of 328.6 yards per contest, Denver is below the league average, but within striking distance of the median.
“Total offense” may sound like a quality, all-encompassing stat, but it’s one of the most misleading statistics in football. It accounts for total yardage produced by an offense, regardless of how and when those yards are produced. A 95-yard touchdown drive will pad the stats in any scenario, but one engineered to win a game in the final 4:00 minutes is quite different than one posted in the fourth quarter against second-unit players when a team is losing by 20+ points and it produces that team’s only touchdown of the game.
The passing game is the primary culprit for Denver’s sub-par season so far, but even the topline numbers are deceptive. The Broncos rank 19th in the NFL with 216 passing yards per game – not great, but not even in the bottom third of the league. They rank 14th in rushing yards per game with 113. By those metrics you’d expect them to be a middle-of-the-road team, not one that would draft sixth in 2018 based on current standings — especially considering the strength of Denver’s defense.
While points per game and points allowed are the two truest stats that can paint a picture of a team’s win-loss record (even those can be misleading at times), there are other stats that when aggregated and ranked against the the rest of the league will explain why a team is where it is in the standings.
Whether it has been Trevor Siemian or Brock Osweiler at quarterback, there are more than a dozen team stats that back up why the Broncos find themselves near the bottom of the NFL standings this season.
Points Per Game: 18.4
Rank: 24th
Although the offense is the primary unit responsible for scoring, “points per game” includes defensive and special teams scoring, as well. Even with their help, the Broncos are still in the bottom 25 percent of the league in points per game.
Offensive Points Per Game (Estimated): 17.0
Rank: 25th
The offense is primarily to blame for Denver’s poor scoring output, with the defense contributing an estimated (by Team Rankings) 1.6 points per game (ninth in the league). None of the seven teams ranked below the Broncos in offensive points per game has a winning record. It’s no surprise the Broncos don’t either.
Points Per Play: 0.279
Rank: 26th
Last year’s team ranked among the worst in the league in third-down efficiency and three-and-outs. This year the offense is staying on the field longer, but they aren’t turning that into points.
Offensive Touchdowns Per Game: 1.7
Rank: t27th (San Francisco, Indianapolis, Miami)
The Broncos have produced just 15 offensive touchdowns this season, 11 passing and four rushing. Eleven teams in the league have as many or more passing touchdowns than the Broncos have total touchdowns this year.
Red Zone Scoring Percentage (TDs Only): 43.33%
Rank: t29th (Arizona)
The most disconcerting thing about this statistic is the fact that Denver is tied for eighth in the league in red zone scoring attempts per game with 3.3. The offense is getting the ball near the end zone, but it can’t find a way in.
Completion Percentage: 52.32%
Rank: 27th
Denver ranks 11th in pass attempts per game with 35.8, meaning only 10 teams in the league throw more frequently than Mike McCoy‘s offense. However, 26 teams connect with more frequency.
Incompletions Per Game: 14.6
Rank: 28th
This goes hand in hand with completion percentage, as Denver’s quarterbacks and receivers are coming up empty far too often. Pair that with their high interception rates (more on that later) and it’s a recipe for disaster.
Pass Yards Per Attempt: 6.0
Rank: 25th
The incompletions and interceptions hurt, but even when the Broncos are connecting they aren’t moving the ball downfield. They rank in the bottom quarter of the league in pass yards per attempt, and just a smidgeon above that (tied for 23rd) in yards per completion.
Passing Touchdowns Per Game: 1.2
Rank: 25th
Seven different Broncos have caught passing touchdowns through 10 games. Although that’s not bad, it’s not great. What is bad? None of those seven players has more than two touchdowns on the season.
QB Sacks Allowed Per Game: 3.1
Rank: 25th
A team that passes more frequently than 21 other teams in the league is putting their quarterbacks at higher risk, but those quarterbacks have to be able to unload the ball. Of the 10 teams that pass more often than Denver, only two (San Francisco and Detroit) see their quarterbacks sacked more often.
Average Team Passer Rating: 73.5
Rank: 30th
The sum total of all these unfortunate passing statistics is a team passer rating that ranks in the bottom three of the NFL. Only the 49ers (1-9) and Browns (0-9) have quarterbacks with worse aggregate passer ratings. That’s inauspicious company. That’s top-three draft pick company.
Rushing Touchdowns Per Game: 0.4
Rank: 25th
Denver ranks in the top half of the league in rushing attempts (16th), rush yards per game (14th), rushing first downs per game (16th) and yards per rush attempt (16th). So, it’s a bit baffling that they rank so low in terms of rushing touchdowns per game. As the stats above have demonstrated, the Broncos aren’t scoring points and their passing game is in the bottom half in the league. Even when they are getting to the red zone, they’re not finding their way in. Keeping the ball on the ground inside the red zone might be their only chance to turn things around.
Fumbles Per Game: 1.8
Rank: 27th
Rookie punt returner Isaiah McKenzie isn’t helping this number with his five muffed punts (two lost) this season, but the offense has done its part by fumbling the ball away another six times on top of that.
Interceptions Thrown Per Game: 1.4
Rank: 31st
Only the Cleveland Browns have thrown more interceptions, both in total and per game, through Week 10. There’s not much more to say about that.
Giveaways Per Game: 2.3
Rank: 31st
Cleveland has more giveaways in total and per game, 23 to 21, but Denver actually has a worse give/take ratio thanks to the defense’s inability to create turnovers this year. When the offense is struggling to put points on the board, giving the ball away as frequently as Denver has will only result in losses. Such has been the case in six of their last seven games.
