Forget the Trends, Go All-In On the Over for Broncos vs. Chiefs

Phillip Lindsay. Credit: The Checkdown on Twitter.
Phillip Lindsay. Credit: The Checkdown on Twitter.

The Broncos are looking to pull off a big upset for the second consecutive week, but the Chiefs are going to be a different animal. Last week, we told you to bet the under and that advice paid off, but this week, we’re going with the over on Broncos vs. Chiefs.

Let’s take a look at why the over is the smart play for Colorado bettors. It’s the best play of the week on Broncos vs. Chiefs.

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Broncos +8.5 (-110) +320 O 45 (-110)
Patriots -8.5 (-110) -385 U 45 (-110)


Broncos vs. Chiefs Over Will Buck Betting Trends

Every trend tells us to take the under in this game, but we’re not buying it. The Broncos are 2-3 on over-unders this year while the Chiefs are 2-4. Last season, the Broncos-Chiefs games finished with totals of 36 and 26.

With the total-points mark set to 45, the under seems like the play. Not so fast.

This will be the lowest total points mark on any Chiefs game this season. Patrick Mahomes and company are due for a big week. They leaned on the running game to great success on Monday night against the Buffalo Bills.

If Denver tries to do what the Bills did, the Chiefs will just run the ball down their throats. If they load up against the run, Mahomes will pick them apart through the air. It’s “pick your poison.”

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Le’Veon Bell Adds A New Dynamic

Clyde Edwards-Helaire dominated the Bills on Monday night. Even though he’s shown serious promise in his first six games, he’s no Le’Veon Bell.

After spending a season-plus with the Jets, Bell is coming to an offense that can use him properly. Bell is as versatile as any running back in football and we can expect Andy Reid to take full advantage of his skillset.

If Bell doesn’t have a big game, it’s likely because someone else on the Chiefs had a huge game. That could be Edwards-Helaire or Travis Kelce or Tyreek Hill or Mecole Hardman or another weapon at Reid’s disposal. The Chiefs can put points up on the board in a ton of ways.

Kansas City hasn’t quite hit its stride scoring-wise this season, but it’s only a matter of time before they explode for 40-plus points.

Unfortunately, the Broncos might be the unlucky team that has to deal with that.

Broncos-Chiefs Injury Report

The Broncos have dealt with so many injuries this year, but they are starting to get healthy on offense. Drew Lock wasn’t great in his return to the field last week against the Patriots, but he showed flashes.

Phillip Lindsay was magnificent in his first action since Week 1. He rushed for 100 yards on 23 carries and served as the driving force on Denver’s offense. Melvin Gordon will be back to give the Broncos a two-headed monster in the backfield.

The Broncos had trouble punching the ball into the endzone, but they managed to score 18 points by way of Brandon McManus. The kicker was a perfect 6-for-6 on field goals and while that didn’t result in an over, having a great kicker doesn’t hurt when you’re betting the over.

Broncos vs. Patriots Pick

It might sound crazy given some of the under trends with these two teams, but we still love the over here. The Chiefs are an offensive juggernaut and 45 is a very low number for a team of their caliber.

Broncos vs. Patriots Prediction

Grab this line before it moves any higher. Broncos vs. Chiefs is one of the most intriguing games of the weekend and bettors have the opportunity to cash in on it. DraftKings Sportsbook has the total points at 45 which is the best you’ll find for the over.