Two weeks ago I detailed a three-step plan to get the Colorado Buffaloes into the College Football Playoffs. So far … not so good.

  • Win out (In Progress)
  • Oklahoma loses to either No. 14 West Virginia or No. 11 Oklahoma State (In Progress)
  • Michigan beats Ohio State or Penn State loses to either Rutgers or Michigan State (Nope)

With Penn State playing in the Big-10 Championship Game, the Buffs’ fate has officially been taken out of their hands. With only championship weekend remaining, Colorado currently sits at No. 8 in the College Football Playoff Rankings, making any hopes of making the playoffs a long shot.

But it’s not impossible.

If the Buffs beat Washington on Friday, there’s still a chance. Why? Well, because putting CU in the playoffs may be the easiest of several difficult choices.

With a Colorado win, the Buffs will knock No. 4 Washington out of the playoffs, opening up a playoff spot for one of four teams (I’m working under the assumption that Clemson wins, because their game is out of the Buffs’ hands):

  • No. 5 Michigan
  • The Big-10 Champion (No. 6 Wisconsin or No. 7 Penn State)
  • The Pac-12 Champion (No. 8 Colorado)
  • The Big-12 Champion (No. 9 Oklahoma or No. 10 Oklahoma State)

Now, the important thing to remember is that the College Football Playoff Committee isn’t the BCS; it’s not a computer. These are real humans, which means they can sometimes make emotional, even irrational, decisions.

And if Washington loses, they’re going to be facing a brutal decision, which, in and of itself, could cause the chaos CU needs to jump four spots and compete for a chance at the national championship.

Let’s break down the reasoning behind each option:

No. 5 Michigan

In: You’re not going to find many college football fans who will argue that Michigan isn’t good enough to play for a national championship, and you might even find a good few that still believe they deserved the win at Ohio State last weekend. At No. 5, if a spot opens up, the only way someone other than the Wolverines is getting in is if they get leapfrogged. And given that the Wolverines beat No. 6 Wisconsin, No. 7 Penn State and No. 8 Colorado this season, that might be hard to do.

Out: Would the committee really put two Big 10 teams in the final four, neither of which are actually the Big-10 champion? That’s a ballsy call.

The Big-10 Champion (No. 6 Wisconsin or No. 7 Penn State)

In: They’d be the highest-ranked conference champs on the board. If the committee values championships, they’re in.

Out: Both teams lost to Michigan this season, and Penn State lost to Michigan by 39 points. What’s more important to the committee? Conference championships or head-to-head matchups? If it’s the latter, how can they, in good conscience, have one of these teams jump Michigan, especially if it’s Penn State?

The Pac-12 Champion (No. 8 Colorado)

In: If the committee wants to avoid the Big-10 controversy — of which there will be plenty — then why not forgo them both and put the Pac-12 champion Colorado Buffaloes in the Playoffs? After all, they’d be the ones who just knocked out the No. 4 Huskies. And really, if it’s close, it makes sense to bring another conference into the equation, as opposed to having half the Playoffs composed of the Big 10.

Out: Michigan … Again, it’s going to be very tough to jump Michigan when the Buffs lost to them head to head. Yes, they were in Ann Arbor. Yes, CU put up a heck of a fight. But those Wolverines are a major roadblock for any one of the three teams behind them.

The Big-12 Champion (No. 9 Oklahoma or No. 10 Oklahoma State)

In: Chaos. Whether it’s Oklahoma or Oklahoma State, it’s going to take a minor miracle for the Big-12 champions to jump both the Big-10 and Pac-12 champion.

Out: A week ago, it looked like Oklahoma had the inside track to the playoffs, at least when compared to CU, as they were ranked one spot above them. But the committee swapped the two teams this week, tipping their hand in the Buffaloes favor. Why else would they move CU above Oklahoma if they didn’t think they were a better playoff candidate? That’s not changing with a Buffaloes win.

If you’re a Buffaloes fan, you’re rooting for chaos. A Clemson loss would definitely help, but all CU controls is the Pac-12 Championship. Win there and the door remains open. Lose and the Rose Bowl might be out of the equation, too.