Mile High Sports Week 11 NFL Betting Primer

It’s that time of the week once again! Week 11 of the NFL season is here, which means it’s time to run the board with an NFL betting primer presented by SuperBook Sports! If you are looking for a new sportsbook to bet with in Colorado, look no further than our friends at SuperBook Sports!

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The overall goal of this primer is to paint a picture of the weekend NFL betting slate so you can dive into it with your head on straight. Sports betting is here, and if you are going to bet, you might as well get an edge, right?

Morning Slate

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings: GB -1.5, MIN +1.5, o/u 47.5 

This line is deceiving at first glance. How are the Green Bay Packers only the 1.5 favorite against the spread here? The Packers have covered the spread in four of the last six head-to-head matchup‘s with Minnesota. Additionally, the under has cashed in six of the last seven games between the two played in Minnesota. At 4-5, vikings are playing for relevancy in this one. Minnesota has yet to beat a playoff team this season, and I don’t see why that would change this week. I understand this is a divisional matchup, and these games tend to be a little bit tighter. But with Aaron Rodgers now playing his second week removed from the COVID situation, I don’t see a reason why to not play the Packers at the short of a line. Public play but that’s how I see it. 

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets: MIA -3.5, NYJ +3.5: o/u 44.5 

This is a pretty bleh game. Old pal Joe Flacco will start this game for the Jets. The Dolphins are riding high after over a week of rest following their upset victory against the Baltimore ravens on Thursday Night Football. The Jets are the home dog here, but leave a lot to be desired. They have had a couple of sharp upset victories this season although I’m not confident enough to play them in the spot. On the flip, I feel the exact same way about the Dolphins. I’m not thrilled about the laying points on the road, especially coming off their Best win of the season. I’ll pass this game  

New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles: NO +2.5, PHI -2.5, o/u 4

Historically, this is a matchup that the Eagles have owned, covering in 10 of the 15 head-to-head matchup played between the two teams since 1993 in Philly. To put it simply, I’m not sure I trust the Eagles at all coming off their big win last week here in Denver.

New Orleans on the other hand is coming off of a very tough loss to the Tennessee Titans on the road. Sean Payton is one of the best coaches to back as an underdog in the NFL, and even though I am not thrilled about their quarterback situation the Saints should be able to figure out a way to get the job done in Philadelphia. With a total of 43, odds makers are expecting this to be an ugly low-scoring game. Perhaps this is a simple take but the Saints are the better team straight up. They played well on the road last week, there’s no reason they shouldn’t be able to do it again against a vulnerable Eagles team. Alvin Kamara is a huge dynamic of the New Orleans offense,  but after speaking with some of the odds makers at super book last week it’s clear that a running back does not change the opinion of many of these games. Perhaps there is a little bit more of an emphasis here, considering they are rocking with a back up quarterback. At the end of the day I’ll take a chance here with New Orleans.  

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans: HOU +9.5, TEN -9.5, o/u 44.5 

I don’t like playing these big spreads, because every time I’ve played them this year I’ve been burned for the most part. At first glance this looks like a game that Tennessee should absolutely dominate. Maybe they are due for a letdown considering they’ve been on fire the last eight weeks or so, and maybe it comes this week against the division opponents, but I’m not betting on it. I’m gonna pass this game as I like some of the other options on the slate. Titans or pass is my lean.

San Francisco 49ers @ Jacksonville Jaguars: SF -6.5, JAX +6.5, o/u 45

It’s hard for me to have confidence either way here. I was bullish on the Jaguars before the season, and have come to coin the 49ers as the Fraudy Niners. With that, Jacksonville has covered in back to back weeks which seems like a miracle. The 49ers are coming off one of the best performances of the season against the Rams on Monday Night Football. As tempting as the points are with Jacksonville, I have to lean towards San Francisco here. It’s not a strong lean and I’ll probably sprinkle lightly on this one if I do end up getting it at all, but the 49ers our head and shoulders better. Big number for them though so be careful. 

Washington Football Team @ Carolina Panthers: WFT +3.5, CAR -3.5, o/u 43

Both of these teams are coming off of strong showings in Week 10. This feels like a game where the hook can kill you, so definitely tread lightly. I really don’t have much to say about this one other than I like the juice with Carolina now that Cam is back in the saddle. I don’t like the idea of getting on either of these teams considering they both had pretty strong up since last week, but if I had to lean I’ll go with the momentum the Panthers establish last week. Cam is relatively fresh all things considered, and I don’t like the idea of Washington winning two in a row, with this game being on the road. 

Baltimore Ravens @ Chicago Bears: BAL -5, CHI +5, o/u 44.5 

Oh the Bears, the Bears, the Bears. It was so nice not having to talk about them last week. That said, the Ravens aren’t much better at the moment. That performance on Thursday night football against Miami was putrid. I don’t want to cost myself money backing the Bears again, and I’m inclined to believe that Baltimore should be able to figure out a way to get back on track after the dismal performance a week ago. Still, the numbers a little big for me so I don’t have supreme confidence in backing Baltimore. That said, there’s no way in hell I’m backing the Bears right now. Do as you please with this one! 

Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills: IND +7, BUF -7, o/u 50

Buffalo got back on track last week in a big way against the New York Jets. Now they are home against a Colts team that has been on the wrong side of a some tight games. Indy has yet to lose a game by a touchdown this season, and I think that’s a trend that continues this week. These two clashed in the AFC Wild Card game last year and the Colts stuck around with Phillip Rivers under center. Now, Carson Wentz hasn’t been that much better, but the Colts have been a scrappy team this season.

They still have a chance to make a run to the playoffs, but a win here will be critical. I’m not going that far but I do like Indy +7 this week as I think the Bulls are a bit overhyped. The Colts defense should be able to keep the game within striking distance, so this game will fall on the shoulders of Indianapolis’ offense. A big win and cover by the Bills would be a statement, but I’m backing the dog here. 

Detroit Lions @ Cleveland Browns: DET +11, CLE -11, o/u 43.5 

The Browns are still pissing me off from last week. No way I’m touching them laying 11, even if it’s at home and even with Nick Chubb back. Have fun with this one y’all, I’m out. 

Afternoon Delight 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Las Vegas Raiders: CIN -1, LV +1, o/u 50.5

We found out this week that Zac Taylor likes to shoot dice. Hopefully he’s up late into the hours playing the tables this Sunday. The Bengals have won just four road games under Taylor’s command, and I don’t think they’ll get to five this week. The Bengals went on one hell of a run earlier in the season, but have come crashing down and are now back close to the cellar of the AFC North division. The Raiders got destroyed last week by the Chiefs, and while they certainly have their flaws I’m not sure why they are the dog here. It reeks of public perception. Both of these teams are on a relatively even playing field, and I really don’t put much stock into the fact that the Bengals are coming off the bye. I like the Burrow and Chase dynamic but the Raiders have won some quality games this season. I’ll take the home dog here. 

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks: AZ -1.5, SEA +1.5, o/u 48

This could be the last time I consider backing the Seahawks this season, but their backs are against the wall and Russell Wilson is coming off the worst game in his career. Even if Kyler Murray plays for Arizona this week he will be limited at best, and Kyler is a player who certainly plays his best when healthy. His size and dependability on his ability makes even the slightest injury debaliting in my eyes. DeAndre Hopkins is out, and I do like the idea of Seattle as a home dog here. The Cardinals have started to fade here a little bit, and maybe they have a second-half run in them once Kyler is back in action fully, but for this week I’ll take a look at Seattle as the home dog and play them on the Moneyline.

Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs: DAL +2.5, KC -2.5, o/u 56

This is probably the marquee game of the Week 11 slate. My inner Cowboys fan might shine here, but this is only the second time this season Dallas has been considered an underdog against the spread. The other time was Week 1 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This is a biased play for me, but I’m gonna go ahead and ride with my boys. I have to. Dallas managed to bounce back last week in a big way against the Falcons, and now has some momentum heading into Kansas City. That said Kansas City has hit is stride, winning three in a row, including a route of the Raiders last week. Kansas City has been awful at covering spreads, but Patrick Mahomes as a less than a field goal favorite is mighty tempting if you are looking at this with a clean head. Dallas is down both of its top pass rushers, and their defense is susceptible to big players considering how aggressive they are for turnovers.

This is going to be an epic game, and if you think it’ll be one of those classic shoot outs and go ahead and fire off some on the over 56. I’m going to be sticking to my guns and play Dallas on the moneyline myself but it’s a tempting spot for someone looking to back K.C. If Dallas plays like it has in 9 of their 10 games it can get the job done here. That said, Mahomes and Co. are picking up steam and if Dallas can’t force turnovers it could fall into KCs lap. 

Sunday Night Football 

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Chargers: PIT +5.5, LAC -5.5

This line caught me off guard at first glance. Ben Roethlisberger status is still up in the air for this match up, but I think I like Pittsburgh regardless of the quarterback. If it is indeed Mason Rudolph, he would’ve had a full week of preparation leading up to this game. The Chargers have been pretty underwhelming the last few weeks as the league has started to adjust to the play of Justin Herbert. Their defense is suspect, and I think Pittsburgh should be able to score enough to keep it within the margins here.

If you read the past primers you know that I’m a big fan of Mike Tomlin, and I like backing him as an underdog for the most part. This is a spot where I’m gonna trust the coach, and it might not be the cleanest game in the world but I think that the Steelers can do enough to get the job done here. You can only buy so low on the Chargers though. At some point they’re gonna rite the ship and turn things around. I don’t see it being this week against a well-coached and prepared Steelers team, that is sure to be furious after their tie last week. 

Monday Night Football 

New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: NYG +10.5, TB -10.5, o/u 49.5 

Another Monday, another bogus football game. Tom Brady has not been good against the spread in primetime. Part of me likes the idea of taking the Buccaneers despite the fact that they laid an egg last week in Washington, but I’m not trusting it here. And I’m sure as hell not trusting the Giants. I don’t really have any thoughts on this one from a spread perspective, but I do like the under for this game at 49.5. Seems like a lot of points for a Giants team that we know struggles to score, and who’s to say Tampa and Company are going to come out and like the world on fire. Like I said, Brady has historically struggled against the spread in these big games and with a number of 10.5, I am passing that. 

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