Mile High Sports Week 14 NFL Betting Primer

It’s that time of the week once again! Week 14 of the NFL season is here, which means it’s time to run the board with an NFL betting primer presented by SuperBook Sports! If you are looking for a new sportsbook to bet with in Colorado, look no further than our friends at SuperBook Sports!

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The overall goal of this primer is to paint a picture of the weekend NFL betting slate so you can dive into it with your head on straight. Sports betting is here, and if you are going to bet, you might as well get an edge, right?

Early Slate

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers: ATL +2.5, CAR -2.5, o/u 42.5 

A divisional game between two teams going nowhere. A degenerates dream! Both of these teams are 1-3 in their last four games and battling to stay out of the cellar. The Panthers are winless with Cam Newton and are now without Christian McCaffery for the rest of the season. They also just fired their offensive coordinator, so this is sure to be a bit of a different team this week coming off the bye.

The under has cashed in 13 of the last 17 head-to-head meetings between these two. Atlanta hung around against the Bucs last week but now will face a Panthers’ defense that is still one of the stronger units in the league. Cam Newton has looked awful, but the Falcons offense really isn’t much better despite the QB advantage. That said, Atlanta has had success in Carolina lately, covering in four of their last matchups against the Panthers on the road. This is a coin-flip game, and I’ll go with the home team here so long as the line doesn’t balloon over three. I do not expect it to, as the action is pretty even on both sides—slight lean with to the Panthers here.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns: BAL +2.5, CLE -2.5, o/u 42

Usually, I would be riding with the Ravens all day, but the injury bug is really starting to hinder them. With 17 players on IR, the Ravens are getting thin, and even with Lamar Jackson running the show it’s hard to overlook the sheer amount of bodies the team is down right now.

I don’t like backing Clevland as I think Baker Mayfield is a joke this season, but I feel there is no choice looking at the injury report. This is an interesting spot for both teams as they clashed two weeks ago with the Ravens winning 16-10, although the Browns were on a bye last week while Baltimore scrapped by in Pittsburgh. Cleveland was a live team in their previous matchup, and I’m sure the squad has been chomping at the bit for another crack at the division foe. This game is in Cleveland, and the Browns are a team littered with talent that has not played up to their potential this season.

Last time out, the Ravens stacked the box that neutralized the Browns’ run game, putting the world’s weight on Baker’s shoulders. Baltimore will likely follow the same game plan and force the Browns to beat them through the air. If Cleveland can’t get this win at home against a depleted Ravens team, they’ve got some serious problems. John Harbaugh is an exceptional coach, so you know Baltimore will be ready to play… but will they have enough talent? This is on the shoulders of  Mayfield and head coach Kevin Stefanski. I’ll lay the points with the home team.

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Football Team: DAL -4, WFT +4, o/u 48

The Dallas Cowboys got back on track last week against the Saints, and Washington is on a heater, having won four games in a row. This game has a massive implication about the future of the NFC East this season. At 6-6, a win for Washinton would close the gap to the division lead and put pressure on Dallas down the home stretch. Additionally, with the expanded playoffs this season, Washington is still a live team to make the playoffs even if they do not win the division, so wins are essential for them either way. 

Mike McCarthy came out and virtually guaranteed a victory for the Cowboys this week, which makes my skin crawl. There’s no question Dallas has the more talented roster, but Washington has been playing solid as of late, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Dak Prescott has looked off the last few weeks, and I’m not sold that last week’s performance is what will jumpstart the team on offense, even with the offense getting healthier. That said, Dak has played some of his best football against Washington, posting a passer rating of 111.2 to pair with 1,866 yards and 13 touchdowns. Of course, I think the Cowboys can demolish the football team this week, but I’m far from sold, and with this line being over a field goal I’ll take a look at the WFT here. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven head-to-head matchups, and the underdog is 29-13 in the previous 42 meetings. It wouldn’t surprise me if Dallas comes out and wipes the floor, but Ron Rivera has his guys playing tough football, which is usually bad news for the Cowboys, who are one of the softer, more undisciplined teams in the league. 

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans: JAX +8.5, TEN -8.5, o/u 43.5

The Titans return from the bye following their loss to the New England Patriots, and the Jaguars continue to slide under coach Urban Meyer. Having lost two straight games, the Titans need to get right against a division opponent this week. Tennessee opened at the -11 favorite, but that number has come crashing down. I would not have bet Tennessee at -11, but I’ll consider them at -8.5. The Jags have not beat the Titans in Tennessee since the Obama administration. I’ll lay the Titans in a teaser this week, as I have minimal confidence in the Jaguars despite my affinity for Trevor Lawerence.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs: LVR +9.5, KC -9.5, o/u 48

Are the Chiefs back? They have won five in a row and are primed to make it six. Kansas City has been averaging 23 points per game over the last five while allowing an average of 11.2 points per game. Their defense has really shaped up, and they just beat down on the Raiders a few weeks ago, 41-14 in Vegas. The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 h2h matchups, and the Raiders have covered just one time in their previous five trips to Kansas City. It’s a chunk of points, but the Chiefs are hitting their stride. I’ll lay with K.C. this week against a Raiders team whose internal flaws are starting to catch up to them.

New Orleans Saints @ New York Jets: NO -6, NYJ +6, o/u 43

Alvin Kamara is expected to return this week after missing four games, which is a big boost for New Orleans. Rookie Zach Wilson played his best game of the season last week, throwing for 226 yards and two touchdowns, although the Jets still lost to the Eagles. As I said last week, betting the Jets seems to be free money every week. I’ll fade them per usual, especially after Wilson had his best game. Let’s see him do it again. Saints or pass.

Seattle Seahawks @ Houston Texans: SEA -7.5, HOU +7.5, o/u 41.5

The Houston Texans have betting worse as the season goes along. Davis Mills is in for this one, and it means nothing to me. The Texans are vying to be the worst team in football. Seahawks or pass. Short and sweet. I also like teasing them down here.

Afternoon Delight 

Detroit Lions @ Denver Broncos: DET +9, DEN -9, o/u 42

Ask yourself this… should the Broncos be a double-digit favorite against any team right now? To me, the answer is an easy no, yet here we find ourselves with the Broncos as the heavy favorite against a Lions team fresh off their first dub of the season. Typically, it’s best to back Teddy Bridgewater as a road underdog, not a home favorite. Throw in the fact he’s been hobbled by an injury, and there are plenty of questions to go around for this one. Denver is 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite. The ship has sailed for the best number on the Broncos as they opened a -8 favorite and dipped as low as -7.5 before rocketing up to 10. With that, the Broncos have the perfect game plan to blow out the Lions. Vic Fangio needs to make life hell on earth for Jared Goff. Goff struggles greatly under pressure, and if he’s running around for his life, it’s tough to see Detroit putting up many points.

We are talking about Fangio’s Broncos, though. Easier said than done. Detroit has been blown out a few times this season, but has also kept some games relatively close. I keep looking back to their home loss to Philly. The Eagles came in and ran up a 44-6 victory against Detroit earlier in the season. The Broncos and Eagles are on a similar playing field IMO, so it’s really up to the Broncos to do their job. I’m just not sold on this Denver team right now and have nowhere near enough confidence to lay a TD+ with them, typically.

it is sure to be an emotional scene due to the passing of Demaryius Thomas, and I really think the Broncos will come to play. The best play here for me is to tease them down.

New York Giants @ Los Angeles Chargers: NYG +10, LAC -10, o/u 43

The Chargers are fresh off a thorough victory against the Bengals this week. Daniel Jones is out for this one, and backup Mike Glennon is listed as questionable. I learned my lesson with the Giants last week, and as tempting as the points are, the Chargers are the only way to look here for me. I like to think Joe Judge can inspire his players for a good performance, but this Giants team can’t score. Even if the Chargers’ offense sputters out of the gate, it’s hard to see them not pulling away at some point. This is a prime teaser candidate for me.

Buffalo Bills @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: BUF +3, TB -3, o/u 53.5

One of the best games on the slate. The Bills soured what was overall a solid Week 13 for us. I’m really not as sold on Buffalo as I was early in the season. Josh Allen and Sean McDermott both looked like annoyed teenagers out there versus New England, focused more on complaining than buckling down to win a football game. 

The Bills haven’t really beat anyone of meaning this season. Their “marquee” win was against Kansas City early in the season. Outside of that, Buffalo has lost to the Patriots, Colts, Jaguars, Titans and Steelers. They’ve quite literally lost to every quality opponent they’ve faced outside of the Chiefs. The Bills have their back against the wall in a way and need to prove they are still capable of playing at the high level we have been accustomed to over the last two seasons.

Unfortunately, they run into the buzzsaw Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have won three in a row since losing to Washington a few weeks back. Unlike the Bills, Tampa has quality wins over teams like Dallas, Indianapolis, and New England. I like betting on a dog with its back against the wall, but I told myself I’m not betting against the GOAT unless there is a really strong case for it. I can’t make that case this week. Tampa is 4-0 in their last four games as a home favorite, and there’s no reason why they shouldn’t be able to take care of business at home. Brady is very familiar with this Bills organization, owning 32 wins in 35 games played against them. The Bucs can also claim the division crown with a win Sunday. Buffalo has a top-10 offense and defense, but they are 3-4 in their last 7 games and they aren’t battle-tested enough to just flip the switch in my opinion. I’ll lay the points with Tampa here. 

San Francisco 49ers @ Cincinnati Bengals: SF -1.5, CIN +1.5, o/u 48.5

If you are familiar with the primers, it will not come as a surprise that I’m not sold on the Bengals. We were on the Chargers last week against Cincy, and that worked out well. Now the Bengals take on a 49ers team that lost to the Seattle Seahawks. That said, the 49ers have been sharp on offense since committing fully to Jimmy G, averaging  29.5 points per game over their last four contests. The Bengals’ offense also has some boom potential, and both squads will be looking to get right after losses in Week 13. Cincy and San Fran are both hanging onto playoffs spots in their respective conferences, so this game is critical for both teams. Each suffered bad losses last week, but the 49ers beat themselves by turning the ball over twice and allowing a special teams touchdown. It took the Bengals a while to wake up against the Chargers, but they got straight-up outplayed. These teams are on similar playing fields, and it could come down to which team is better prepared. Joe Burrow is still banged up and last week was a trap spot for San Francisco. I like them this week in this matchup. I’m still waiting for Zac Taylor to catch up to Cincy later in the year, and I think there is a clear coaching advantage for the 49ers. Toss in the fact that Burrow is banged up, and I’ll rock with the short road favorite here. 

Sunday Night Football

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers: CHI +12.5, GB -12.5, o/u 43.5 

This seems like way too many points, even for a team that Rodgers has bent over time and time again in his career. Green Bay hasn’t scored over 24 points in five weeks, and they’ve won by more than 12 points three times this season. The last two Packers’ games have been close, but they did beat the Bears by 10 points in Chicago a few weeks back. Justin Fields is back under center for the Bears, and that should be a slight upgrade compared to Andy Dalton. Green Bay is 7-3 in their last 10 games hosting Chicago, and the only thing making me hesitate with this one is the number. Green Bay can cover this spread, but Aaron Rodgers is still hobbled by an injury. The Packers have played in a couple big evening primetime games against the Cardinals and 49ers this season, winning each of those games by less than four points. 

That said, it’s hard to have confidence in the Bears whatsoever. I stay saying they would still be on their losing streak had they not played the Lions on Thanksgiving, and I think this week is no different. We smashed the Cardinals last week for an easy cover. While I think this is too many points for a division game, it’s hard to entrust this Chicago team led by Matt Nagy. Rodgers has made the Bears his bitch, and I’m not going against that. I’m not sold on Green Bay full given the near two touchdown spread, so I’ll lean towards them here in a teaser. 

Monday Night Football

Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals: LAR +2.5, AZ -2.5, o/u 51.5 

Yet another banger Monday Night Football game. The Rams were my Super Bowl pick, and they are still considered one of the favorites to come out of the NFC. This game has MASSIVE implications on the state of the NFC West. Arizona throttled the Rams in their last meeting, and at 10-2, a win here by the Cardinals would really boost their division title odds, with the Rams sitting at 8 wins. L.A. got back on track last week against the Jaguars, but the Rams are known for letdown games under Sean McVay.

The Rams are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a win of 14+ points the previous week. This played out exactly when these two clashed in Week 4. The Rams were riding high off their win versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers the week before and wound up losing 37-20 to the Cardinals the following week at home. I’ve been dead wrong on the Cardinals this season. I’m still not sold on Kliff Kingsbury, but his team has been ready to play nearly every week this season, and former Broncos head coach Vance Joseph has done a masterful coaching up the Cardinals’ defense. All good things come to an end, and it feels like the Cardinals are due for a reality check at some point, but I’m not betting on it this week against an inconsistent Rams squad. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Rams won outright, but the Cardinals are playing sound football. They dominated the Bears last week, and with Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins back, it’s hard to bet against this red-hot Cardinals team, so I’ll lay the points. The second week in a row I’m laying points on MNF. Hopefully, this one works out.

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