Mile High Sports Week 15 NFL Betting Primer

It’s that time of the week once again! Week 15 of the NFL season is here, which means it’s time to run the board with an NFL betting primer presented by SuperBook Sports! If you are looking for a new sportsbook to bet with in Colorado, look no further than our friends at SuperBook Sports!

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The overall goal of this primer is to paint a picture of the weekend NFL betting slate so you can dive into it with your head on straight. Sports betting is here, and if you are going to bet, you might as well get an edge, right?

We are getting close to the end of the NFL regular season and have been thrown a bit of a curveball this week with COVID-19 running wild across the sport. A handful of games have been postponed and moved around the slate, which makes trying to get a read on these games a little bit more difficult. I decided to not cover the games that have been moved from their original time slot because I don’t have confidence in betting those games this early in the week, let alone at all. It’s better to be selective rather than force plays, especially with so many variables in play.

Saturday Slate

New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts: NE +2.5, IND -2.5, o/u 46

Saturday football and this is one of the best games on the Week 15 slate. Let’s hope this one holds up from a covid perspective. The Patriots come off the bye in prime position to seize the top seed in the AFC if they can continue along their winning ways. New England is red hot on a seven game win streak yet they are the underdog for this matchup. This game presents a few matchup opportunities that Indionaplois can take advantage of, especially with their run defense. DeForest Buckner and Darius Leonard are two brutes for the Colts defense and New England has built their winning streak off of using the running game to set up the passing game. Indy is sure to try and clog the middle, which will put pressure on rookie Mac Jones. When asked to pass the ball, Jones has been effective but this will be a big test for him as we near the completion of the regular season. 

These teams have 6 common opponents this season, including the Bucs, Bills and Titans. New England came out of those games in much better shape than the Colts. Additionally, it just feels like Bill Belichick will have his guys ready to go and develop a defensive scheme to confuse Carson Wentz. Belichick has had extra time to prepare for this one coming off the bye, although you could say the same with the Colts. I’m at the point where I have to be thoroughly convinced to bet against greatness, and I’m not there this week. Give me the Pats on the road. 

Early Slate 

Arizona Cardinals @ Detroit Lions: AZ -13, DET +13, o/u 47.5 

Really no thoughts on this one. I expect the Cardinals to bounce back, but I’m not laying the points here and even playing them in a teaser feels like a bit of a stretch. Pass for me. 

Carolina Panthers @ Buffalo Bills: CAR +12, BUF -12, o/u 44.5 

Much like the Cardinals game I do not have much to say about this one. Big spread during a whacky slate. I’d rather pass then take a flier and lose money. Buffalo should bounce back here and the Panthers have yet to win a game with Cam Newton back as starting QB. This could be a spot to tease Buffalo down but that’s about it for me in this one. 

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants: DAL -11, NYG +11, o/u 44.5

This is a prime teaser spot for me, assuming nothing crazy happens with the injury report.  The Dallas Cowboys looked really solid for three quarters last week against Washington. A rough fourth-quarter showed just how vulnerable this Cowboys team can be come playoff time. That said, this is an opportunity for the Cowboys to wipe the slate clean from their fourth-quarter blunder last week and get back track. The Giants are just awful this season. Daniel Jones will not playing this one, meaning it will be Mike Glennon under center for the New York Football Giants. I made the mistake of backing the Giants and Glennon a couple weeks ago against Miami Dolphins, and that was a harsh wake up call. There is a 0% chance I back the Giants, or any team led by Glennon for that matter, ever again.

If the Cowboys play like we know they can, they can absolutely blow this game wide open early and cover the spread with ease. The Giants have not shown and ability to put up a fight in recent weeks, and it appears like the team is slowly but surely giving up on Joe Judge. Even though the Cowboys have been one of the most profitable teams against the spread the season, I don’t feel comfortable enough to lay this many points with them. That’s why I’ll take a look at the Cowboys in a teaser, and pair them with one of the other sizable favorites on the board. 

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars : HOU +5, JAX -5, o/u 39.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars have cleansed themselves of Urban Meyer. The situation was dire and rumors swirled that players were considering a protest of Meyer, so this move seemed like the only option. This line has steamed up to Jags -5 after opening Jags -3 before Meyer was shown the door. Plenty of people think this breath of fresh air is exactly what Jacksoville needed and I agree… it will be interesting to see how they play down the stretch here. We are talking about the Jags here, though. Regardless of Meyer, they are still a flawed team but perhaps this is some momentum they can use to their advantage. Houston isn’t much better, although they have dominated this matchup in recent memory, winning seven consecutive meetings and 13 of the last 15, including Week 1 of this season. Davis Mills had his best game of the season, throwing for over 300 yeards in a loss to the Seahawks last week. Let’s see him do it again… I like the Jags in the game but the -5 is a tough pill to swallow. 

I’ll look for a live spot to bet this game. 

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins: NYJ +9.5, MIA -9.5, o/u 41

The Dolphins have picked up some steam and take on the Jets coming off the bye. Miami is looking to be the first team to make the playoffs after starting the season 1-7. The Dolphins have won five in a row and are primed for another win this week against the Jets.

This line opened Miami -8.5 and has since moved a full point. Miami is red hot and has owned the Jets, covering in nine of the last 11 head-to-head matchups with New York. Fading the Jets is never a bad idea and while the line is a bit big, the Jets are once again one of the worst teams in the NFL this season. Dolphins or pass, and I like the idea of teasing Miami down to -3.5 for this matchup as well. Miami needs to take care of business and not overlook the Jets as they continue on the quest for the playoffs. 

Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers: TEN PK, PIT PK, o/u 43

Here we go… this is the first time in a long time I am going to go ahead and fade Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers. I’m not understanding this line movement. We saw the 9-4 Titans open as the -2.5 favorite and now this game is at pick’ em. The Titans are still in position to seize the #1 seed in the AFC and have beat a number of quality opponents this season. Tennessee plays up and down to the level of their opponent and I tend to stay away from the Titans when they are a favorite but now that the line has dropped I’ll consider them in this game.

What I really like in this game is the Titans first half ML. The Steelers have been down by at least 17 points in three separate games over the last month. Furthermore, Pittsburgh leads the league in 4th quarter scoring with 144 points this season. Translation: The Steelers start slow and finish strong. Being that I like Tomlin, it would not surprise me if Pittsburgh makes this a game at the end, but I do expect their first half struggles to continue. Julio Jones is set to return and the Titans are playing for big stakes in the playoffs. Lean Titans.

Afternoon Delight 

Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers: ATL +9.5, SF -9.5, o.u 46.5 

I might have to stop calling them the Fraudy9ers because San Fran is playing well at the moment. The 49ers have won four of their last five with the lone loss coming to Seattle, which is a traditional let down spot for them. They beat a solid Bengals team last week in overtime and are back home against a weak Falcons team. San Fran is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. It’s weird to think these two teams are one game apart in record, but Atlanta has beat up on some bad teams in recent time like the Panthers and Jaguars. If you want to put stock into those games be my guest. 

The Falcons are not a good team and their record is a bit of a mirage. I like San Fran here. 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos: CIN +3, DEN -3, o/u 44 

A classic case of betting with your head vs. betting with your heart. I’m going to bet with the heart and believe in the Broncos ability to put their best foot forward in this one. I have been pretty down on the Bengals for majority of the season, and while the points are tempting here I’m riding with the hometown team. Last week the Broncos destroyed Detroit using fuel from the DT situation. Is this a let down spot for them now? Will they be up for this game? 

As it stands, the Broncos currently have a 21% chance to make the playoffs. A win Sunday boosts their chances to 31%, however a loss drops their percentage all the way down to a measly 6%. The Broncos are essentially playing for their season this Sunday against Cincinnati. Both of these teams are solid on the defensive side of the ball, expect to Bengals try and neutralize the Broncos’ run game and Denver try to take out Cincinnati’s passing game. Whichever team can take away the opposition’s biggest strength will have a clear path to victory. It will be up to Teddy Bridgewater and the offense to put up points in this one at home.

We saw Teddy Bridgewater rip off a five game winning streak back in 2015 when he was the quarterback of the Minnesota Vikings. That winning streak propelled Minnesota to the postseason that year as a wildcard. Teddy has been there and done that, now he needs to do it for the orange and blue. At the same token, Vic Fangio is essentially coaching for his job. There is a widespread belief that the only way Fangio will be back coaching the Broncos next season is if they manage to make the playoffs. Unfortunately, Fangio does not give you the most confidence in the world as a head coach, but neither does Zac Taylor in my opinion. Denver has struggled to cover as a home favorite, covering just five times in the last 15 games that meet this criteria, but let’s go ahead and roll the dice on the hometown team. 

Green Bay Packers @ Baltimore Ravens: GB -7, BAL +7, o/u 44

On paper this is a fantastic matchup, but when you factor in the spruce of injuries that both teams are dealing with it become a bit of a wild card. Both the Packers and the Ravens are two of the best teams in the regular season over the last three years. Green Bay has won 36 regular season games and the Ravens have won 33 in that span. John Harbaugh is one of the best coaches in the league, so there is no question that his team will be ready to play come Sunday. We have seen the Ravens stick around in these games regardless of the injuries they’ve had to deal with this year, but I do wonder if that catches up to them this week against Aaron Rodgers.

Besides leading the league with players on injury reserve, QB Lamar Jackson is dealing with a sprained ankle that forced him out of last weeks game against the Cleveland Browns. Aaron Rodgers is also dealing with an injury of his own, but since discovering that the Packers have not skipped a beat, averaging over 30ppg in that span. Additionally, Aaron Rodgers has thrown 10 consecutive touchdown passes without an interception. He’s playing exceptionally well despite the injury to the toe, and while that is still in the back of my mind for this game I think we can go ahead and trust Rodgers and the Packers here. Green Bay is 11-2 against the spread this season, the best record in the NFL. I liked this game a lot more when Green Bay was at -5.5, but the way the world is going now things change fast.

I think Green Bay is still a prime candidate to cover the spread, however, I think the best way to play them this week is in a teaser. You can get them down to -1 which is essentially asking them to win the game. I’d look to pair GB with one of the big favorites on the board. 

Sunday Night Football

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: NO +11, TB -11, o/u 46.5

This was shaping up to be an interesting game but with Saints’ coach Sean Peyton testing positive for COVID everything has changed. I would go as far to say that Peyton is as important as any individual player on that roster. He knows how to scheme for Brady and now that’s out the window for this game. Unfortunately, I think this hinders the betting options on this game. This week is so wacky, but sometimes the best bet to make is not bet at all. I really wish I could give you guys more for this game, but with Peyton not coaching it’s obvious that the Buccaneers are the side here. That said, I don’t feel confident enough to lay the points here. Could be another teaser play or pass entirely. 

Monday Night Football

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears: MIN -4, CHI +4, o/u 44 

An NFC South showdown on Monday Night Football. Kirk Cousins historically struggles in prime time and as a favorite, which makes me take an extra look at Chicago here despite how dreadful they have been. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 h2h meetings and Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Chicago. The under is also 13-6 in the last 19 meetings between these two.

Much like Vic Fangio, Matt Nagy is coaching for his job. If the Bears lose this week is this the end of the road? The Vikings are still vying for the playoffs, so you would expect their A+ effort, but you never know what you are going to get with a Mike Zimmer led team with Cousins as the QB. Most Vikings games tend to be tight, which is why when I see Chicago as the field goal+ home dog I have to think about it. It’s juicy and I’m not trying to force underdog plays but this could be the one. Minnesota is 3-3 as a favorite and I think this could be too many points as we creep towards a -7 for Minnesota. I’ll lean with the Justin Fields led Bears. 

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