Nuggets vs. Heat Betting Preview (August 1, 2020)

nuggets heat betting preview odds picks prediction
PHOTO CREDIT: KEN BLAZE-USA TODAY SPORTS

We will jump into our Nuggets vs. Heat betting preview and odds, picks, and predictions in just a minute.

But first, the NBA is back and that means this weekend represents the first chance for the Colorado online sports betting market to legally wager on basketball. Accordingly, there are tons of awesome promos out there, including:

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With that said, let’s jump into our Nuggets-Heat betting preview.

Nuggets vs. Heat Odds

Here’s the line for the Nuggets and Heat at DraftKings Sportsbook Colorado:

  • Spread: Nuggets -1.5, Heat +1.5
  • Moneyline: Nuggets -119, Heat +102
  • Total: 210.5

 

Bets We Like With a Nuggets Win

FiveThirtyEight gives the Nuggets a 64% chance of winning the game outright with a predicted spread (RAPTOR) of Nuggets -3.5. In this case, there is some slight value on the Nuggets in comparing RAPTOR with the market point spread.

Nuggets Win and Under 210.5 Total Points (+255, DraftKings Sportsbook CO)

The Nuggets have a few things working against them heading into this matchup with the Heat. Denver didn’t have the benefit of utilizing its full roster during the scrimmage portion of the NBA’s restart. Notably, Denver often had to go heavy on big men, and, in turn, struggled to close out on opponents’ three-point shooting. That’s a concern in this one against a Heat team that has been one of the league’s most effective three-point shooting teams this season, both in terms of makes and efficiency.

If Denver is going to win this one, it will need to slow down the Heat’s long-range attack. Miami has the ability to stretch the floor with its bigs, and this game feels like one where Denver will need to really grind things out to open up with a win.

Get the Nuggets to win and under 210.5 points here.

Nuggets to win by 1-10 Points (+175 at FanDuel Sportsbook CO)

FanDuel Sportsbook Colorado offers players the ability to bet on victory by margin. In this case, for the reasons mentioned above–continuity and perimeter defense–we don’t believe that Denver runs away with this contest. If the idea is that it will take a slowed down, grind-it-out approach, the expectation is that a motivated Heat team should put up a fight, particularly in a game with such a short spread. While a blowout or two is inevitable this weekend, this doesn’t feel like a spot where one squad will run away from another in a meeting between two quality teams.

Grab the Nuggets to win by 1-10 points at FanDuel Sportsbook Colorado right here.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

(Heat -105 First Half Money Line at FOX Bet Colorado)

We like the Heat with this prop at FOX Bet Colorado. The thinking here is that the Nuggets are the better team, but ultimately are positioned to struggle out of the gate. That being said, is the gate the first half or the first game?

We’ll hedge a little bit and reduce this to the first half. The Heat are in better overall shape in terms of availability and continuity based on the restart schedule, so we see an opportunity for them to capitalize on the offensive end in the early going and take a lead into halftime.

Keep in mind, FOX Bet is also offering a $3 bonus for every three-pointer the Nuggets score with a $3 minimum bet on the Nuggets (bonus caps at $50). This promo creates terrific value in that a low-risk bet can pay out a substantial bonus, so FOX Bet is absolutely worth a look prior to locking your Nuggets-Heat bets.

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Nuggets vs. Heat Prediction

Pick: I’m a bit wary of the Nuggets’ ability to slow down the Heat in this game, but, ultimately, I’m going to stay off the side. If I take the Nuggets, I’m going to attempt to maximize value with the DraftKings Sportsbook Colorado same-game parlay bet, or with a margin of victory bet from FanDuel Sportsbook Colorado.

Ultimately, I’m definitely in on FOX Bet’s $3 point bonus promo and the over, and I’m taking the Heat to win the first half. 

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