When looking at this Nuggets vs. Heat betting preview with odds, picks, and predictions, remember that it’s all about Denver’s health. Or lack of health.

The Colorado online sports betting market was treated to a dud of a performance by the Nuggets on Saturday in what was the first opportunity for the state’s bettors to legally wager on them. A banged-up squad limped its way to a 125-105 blowout loss to the Heat in that one. Without three of its top players, Denver struggled to defend the perimeter and could face similar issues on Monday afternoon against the Thunder. That being said…

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Is Denver in store for a bounce back effort, or will it be more of the same in its second restart game? Let’s take a closer look in our Nuggets-Thunder betting preview.

Nuggets vs. Thunder Odds

Here’s the line for the Nuggets and Thunder at DraftKings Sportsbook Colorado:

  • Spread: Nuggets +6, Thunder -6
  • Moneyline: Nuggets +195, Thunder -240
  • Total: 219.5

Analysis: The Nuggets were +4.5 on Sunday night and this spread has now stretched to +6 (and likely on the move still). That’s a little bit concerning for those backing Denver. The impact of injuries to Jamal Murray, Gary Harris and Will Barton III were on display in the Nuggets’ 20-point loss on Saturday afternoon and figure to be once again today.

At full-strength, the Nuggets are likely the superior team, but following an impressive win on Saturday over the Jazz, the healthier Thunder are understandably a fairly substantial favorite in this spot.

Bets We Like With a Nuggets Cover

Nuggets win and Nikola Jokic to score at least 20 points (+390, FanDuel Sportsbook)

With Murray, Barton and Harris out yet again this afternoon, there’s absolutely no way the Nuggets win this game unless Nikola Jokic goes off. Therefore, I’m skipping the regular moneyline and going with Jokic to score at least 20 points and Denver to win at +390 odds. In fact, if you really want to extract value here, you could consider Jokic to score at least 25 points and Denver to win at +690.

Often with such props, we tend to overemphasize the correlation between one individual player’s performance with game outcome, but in this case, it’s going to take a dominant performance from Jokic to carry Denver. He’s had scoring success against the Thunder this season, too, dropping an average of 30 points per game.

Note: FanDuel Sportsbook also offers third quarter moneyline bet insurance. If you’re team is leading after three quarters and goes on to lose, you’ll get back up to $50 on the wager. This is particularly useful insurance when trying your hand at a strong underdog.

Get a $500 risk-free bet and Jokic and the Nuggets to win at +360 odds with FanDuel Sportsbook by clicking here.

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Jokic To Score Over 21.5 Points (-138 at FOX Bet)

FOX Bet Colorado is offering Jokic’s scoring over/under at 21.5 points today. It’s juiced up a bit at -138, but again, it’s likely worth a look–particularly if you think the Nuggets are going to win (or even cover). Jokic has eclipsed 21.5 points in 30 of 66 games this season, including in both contests against the Thunder. He logged 32 points and 28 points against OKC in two previous meetings and shot nearly 80% from the floor in those two contests.

Moreover, it’s contextually a solid play, given the offense is likely to run through him today.

Meanwhile, if you’re all in on the Nuggets, you can try a FOX Bet odds boost of Jokic to record a triple double and Denver to win at boosted +1400 odds. Jokic has averaged 10.5 rebounds and more than eight assists per game against the Thunder this season, so there’s some potential value on this play.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Thunder Moneyline (-240 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

This suggestion comes with a caveat. We noted prior to the Heat game how Denver has truly struggled to defend the perimeter and that was on full display Saturday. If you’re going to take the Thunder moneyline, we recommend doing so with DraftKings Sportsbook because of its 110-point insurance. You’ll get up to $25 back on a loss if the Thunder score at least 110 points.

If the Thunder are going to win, they’ll likely do so by taking advantage of a thin Denver defense. Keep in mind that 10 of 12 teams scored at least 110 points yesterday. This includes five teams that went on to lose, so this promo has been extremely helpful to DraftKings bettors.

Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction

Nuggets vs. Thunder Pick: I have significant concerns about Denver’s rhythm and health entering this game. If you’re a believer in momentum, these are two teams simply in different places right now. The opening 4.5-point line was revealing and that it’s surging away from Denver is probably telling, too. For these reasons, I’m on the Thunder to win the game at -240 (but I’m going to reduce the risk with DraftKings Sportsbook’s 110-point insurance). 

Meanwhile, given Jokic’s success against the Thunder this season, I’m going to roll with him to eclipse 21.5 points today at FOX Bet.