Oh yay, another national television matchup for the Denver Nuggets, who seem to love those lately.

Let’s delve into the Phoenix Suns matchup:

Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns

Projected Starting Lineups

Denver: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Michael Porter Jr., Zeke Nnaji, Nikola Jokic

Phoenix: Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, Bol Bol, Nick Richards

Key Bench Players

Denver: Jalen Pickett, Russell Westbrook, Peyton Watson, DeAndre Jordan

Phoenix: COLLIN GILLESPIE, Tyus Jones, Grayson Allen, Royce O’Neale, Mason Plumlee

Notable Injuries

Denver: Nikola Jokic – QUESTIONABLE, Aaron Gordon – QUESTIONABLE, Zeke Nnaji – PROBABLE, Julian Strawther – OUT, DaRon Holmes II – OUT

Phoenix: Bradley Beal – QUESTIONABLE, Monte Morris – OUT, Cody Martin – OUT

Key for the Nuggets – Lock in during the first quarter

On the season, the Nuggets have the second best offense during first quarters using offensive rating. Defensively is another story.

Defensive Rating by Quarter

  • 1st  Quarter – 118.5 (29th in NBA)
  • 2nd Quarter – 115.8 (26th)
  • 3rd Quarter – 113.1 (8th)
  • 4th Quarter – 108.6 (6th)

It’s a pretty simple formula the Nuggets have followed for most of the year. They expect their offense to carry them and keep them close in the first half. Then, they lock in during the second half and exert a bit more effort and focus on that end. It’s often why the Nuggets are having such great second halves because they need to catch up.

Here’s a pretty simple number: the Nuggets are 38-2 when they win the first quarter. Ergo, win the first quarter.

Important Matchup – Kevin Durant vs Zeke Nnaji

I’m only kind of joking here. With Aaron Gordon, Denver’s primary Kevin Durant defender, questionable for this matchup, the Nuggets need other tall, competitive defenders to switch and guard against Phoenix’s wings. It’s especially Durant though, and outside of the freshly returned Peyton Watson, the Nuggets don’t have a lot of players to throw out there.

If all three of Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal play, I doubt the Nuggets leave Michael Porter Jr. to guard Durant in this matchup. I think they start Nnaji (or Watson) if Gordon can’t play, hoping he can capitalize on what was an impressive defensive performance vs the Sacramento Kings on Wednesday night.

Number of the Day – 23.03

23.03 is the rolling average game score of the last six games Nikola Jokic has played, according to Basketball Reference.

Six games is an arbitrary cutoff I used to include the Los Angeles Lakers game the Nuggets faced out of the break because it’s the first time Jokic and the Nuggets have seen such aggressive off-ball coverage deployed against him to this degree.

As can be seen, this is the lowest point of his incredible, all-time level season he has put together. He had a brief spell back in December when he was merely mortal. From December 13th to December 25th, Jokic averaged 25.7 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 7.0 assists, shooting 58.8% from the field and 50% from three-point range. Yes, you read that right. Jokic’s lowest point of the season prior to this year was 26-9.5-7 on 59-50-73 shooting splits.

This most recent six-game stretch, he’s averaging 21.2 points, 13.7 rebounds, and 11.5 assists, shooting 58.8% from the field again but only 25.0% from three. Teams have limited Jokic to merely 13.7 shots per game game, and they’ve also taken away his three-ball by guarding him with a quicker, more agile player so frequently.

So, yes. Jokic’s worst six game stretch of the season includes per game averages of 21 points, 14 rebounds, and 12 assists. Cool.

Nugget who should have a good game: Jamal Murray

Murray is rolling of late. There aren’t a ton of strong perimeter defenders on the Suns, and the last time Murray faced this team, he had 30 points about a month ago.

With the Suns likely to get buckets, the Nuggets will have to match. Murray’s a great option to break the coverage Jokic has faced consistently, and the more often he lets his three-ball fly going forward, the better off the Nuggets will be.