It may not be Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady, but Broncos vs. Patriots is just as big as ever.
Nobody expects anything from the Denver Broncos anymore, but a win against the undefeated champs would go a long way towards changing that. This is about as important of a game the Broncos have played during the regular season in a long time; a win could mean a shot at the No. 1 seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs, while a loss could cap the Broncos ceiling at the three seed.
Luckily, based on the Patriots last two performances, the Broncos may be catching Tom Brady and Co. at the perfect time, if that’s possible.
Either way, here are five things the Denver Broncos have to do to beat the New England Patriots on Sunday:
Protect the ball:
The Broncos aren’t just playing an undefeated team; they’re playing the undefeated New England Patriots. There’s a difference. Between Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, this team will take advantage of every little opportunity they’re given, and an extra possession is a big one.
The Patriots are fifth in the league in turnover differential at a +6, which doesn’t exactly bode well for a Denver Broncos team that’s already turned the ball over 19 times this season and is trotting out a first-year starter against a Belichick-led defense. If Denver wants to remain in this game, they need to take every precaution with the football; they need to treat it with the same protection they would a wandering toddler.
And I’m not just singling out Brock Osweiler. Obviously, he needs to be careful with the ball, but if worse comes to worse, I can forgive an interception; I won’t be as likely to forgive a fumble from a veteran — a dropped pass, too, for that matter.
For the Broncos, when they get two hands on the ball, they need to stay there. To beat the Patriots, you need to play the perfect game.
Bring the blitz:
Tom Brady may be the best quarterback in the league at getting the ball out before the blitz gets to him, but when it does, he’s not the same guy.
Since the Giants beat the undefeated Patriots in the ’07 Super Bowl, there’s only been one thing that’s every truly thwarted Mr. Uggs: Pressure. It’s been the case in every one of the Patriots big postseason losses, and it’s shown itself again this season, especially against the Bill on Monday night.
Rex Ryan brought the blitz all night, hitting Brady nine times, and it showed, as Brady arguably had the worst game of his season.
In the last few weeks, Wade Phillips has seemingly eased off the gas pedal, which may have been because he was looking to contain some of the league’s best scrambling quarterbacks, but he has to come at Brady with everything he’s got this weekend; and he’s got a lot.
Again, while Brady is widely regarded as the MVP frontrunner, he hasn’t been nearly the same quarterback when facing pressure. According to Pro Football Focus, Brady is tied with Peyton Manning as the 12th most accurate quarterback when under pressure; that’s just about the most average of a stat you’ll ever find about Tom Brady.
Get Vernon Davis involved:
With Emmanuel Sanders still questionable for this weekend, Vernon Davis will likely play the role of the Broncos’ No. 2 wideout, and they need him to play at his best. For the last few weeks, Malcom Butler has been shutting down elite wide receiver after elite wide receiver for the New England Patriots, and that means Demaryius Thomas might not be the most available option for Brock Osweiler.
Last week, Davis may have had his best game in two years, catching all six of his targets for 68 yards. A week before, he let slip that he wasn’t all too happy with the role the Broncos had given him, but now that he has the opportunity, he better back it up.
Against this Patriots defense (and with this Broncos offensive line), Osweiler is going to need his safety blankets to be open at all times. Aside from a few play-action bombs, I expect nearly every one of Osweiler’s passes to be between 5 and 15 yards downfield, with Davis being his main target.
This Gary Kubiak offense — which, yes, is different from the one Manning has been running — is about as friendly to tight ends as you can get. Hopefully, last week was just the start.
Stop Rob Gronkowski:
The game plan for stopping the Patriots offense is fairly simple: Contain Rob Gronkowski. Unfortunately, slowing down the greatest tight end in NFL history isn’t exactly, uh, easy.
But if there was ever a week to do it, it would be this week.
While the Patriots are still the league’s No. 2 scoring offense, they’re a shell of their peak selves. With Dion Lewis, Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and Aaron Dobson all likely out for the Broncos game, that basically leaves Brandon LaFell as the only true pro receiving talent to complement Gronk; that’s good news for the Broncos.
And as we saw on Monday, even when Amendola and Dobson were in the game, it’s a lot easier to contain Gronk when there’s nobody else worth covering. That’s exactly what Rex Ryan and the Bills did, as they focused in on Gronk, holding him to season lows in receptions and yards.
I expect Wade Phillips will let his secondary go one on one versus the Patriots wideouts while bracketing Gronk with Brandon Marshall and T.J. Ward, or a similar combination. If they can do that, this game should become a defensive struggle, and I’ll give the advantage to the Broncos.
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[adrotate banner=”6″]Gary Kubiak needs to call one hell of a game:
Not many people have outsmarted Bill Belichick, but Gary Kubiak may need to do just that if the Broncos are going to beat the Patriots on Sunday night.
There’s no getting around the fact the Broncos are playing at a disadvantage; no matter what you think of Brock Osweiler, he’s still a 25-year-old kid going up against a guy most people would call the greatest coach in NFL history. He’s not winning that battle.
If Denver’s offense is going to get the best of New England, it’ll be because Kubiak calls the perfect game. There will be moments when Denver should allow Osweiler to throw off the chains and sling it down field, but they can’t get greedy, either. It’ll be a delicate balance, but I think they’re capable of putting it together.
This will be both Kubiak and Osweiler’s second week running the true “Kubiak offense,” and I think they’ll both look better in their roles. Much like Peyton Manning was weighed down by the hybrid offense the Broncos had been running for the last five or six weeks, so was Kubiak; the pistol is not his forte, as evidenced by the fact that the Broncos immediately moved back under center with Brock.
The Broncos may be the underdogs, but sometimes that’s the best place to be.