So you’re telling me there’s a chance!
Lloyd Christmas, Jim Carrey’s character in “Dumb and Dumber,” is responsible for that phrase and it’s one a lot of people apply to their lives.
Buy a Powerball ticket? So you’re telling me there’s a chance!
Apply for a job you’re extremely underqualified for? So you’re telling me there’s a chance!
Ask someone way out of your league on a date? So you’re telling me there’s a chance!
And while the country focused on the World Series Tuesday night, something happened about an hour before first pitch that sparked Buffs fans across the front range to utter the saying as well…
So you’re telling me there’s a chance!
In the first edition of the 2016 College Football Playoff rankings, Colorado checked in at No. 15.
Sitting at 6-2, with losses to No. 3 Michigan (a game they were leading in the second half) and USC (only by four on the road), CU clearly impressed the CFP committee. So much so, in fact, there is actually a scenario where Colorado winds up in the final four and makes the college football playoff.
It’s unlikely, sure, but it’s not absolutely outrageous.
Let’s dissect this thing, with a simple 11-part plan to get the Buffaloes playing on New Year’s Eve with a spot in the National Championship on the line:
- CU wins out, including beating an undefeated Washington team in the Pac-12 Championship
- Alabama, Clemson and Michigan all win out, making it very clear to the committee those teams deserve the top-3 spots
- Texas A&M loses at least once – November 24 vs. LSU looks like an option
- Ohio State loses to Michigan on November 26; remember the Wolverines need to win out to help CU
- Louisville falls at Houston on November 17 as Tom Herman’s squad proves their win versus Oklahoma wasn’t a fluke
- Wisconsin loses in the Big 10 Championship Game, as Michigan hands the Badgers their third loss of the year
- Auburn falls to Alabama in the Iron Bowl (again, root hard for ‘Bama, Clemson and Michigan), handing War Eagle their third loss
- Nebraska loses to Ohio State in a close one, and then stumbles at Iowa Nov. 25
- Florida loses to LSU in their makeup game (which caused each to cancel a cupcake non-conference contest) and then gets wrecked by Alabama in the SEC Championship
- LSU earns loss No. 3 against Alabama this weekend – Roll Tide, y’all
- Oklahoma loses to one of the three ranked teams they play down the stretch (No. 17 Baylor, No. 20 WVU or No. 18 Oklahoma State); after all, it is Bob Stoops
Whew, got it all?
Here are a few key points to simplify what is outlined above.
First, it would give every team ahead of CU with at least one loss at least two and every team with two losses at least three. Regardless of what Penn State does at No. 12 (even though they’ll probably lose at least once), CU would jump them by winning out and winning the Pac-12 Championship.
Second, in this scenario, Washington would only have one loss, but you’d think the committee would take a two-loss CU team over a one-loss Washington when the Buffaloes just beat the Huskies in a title game.
Finally, as long as Clemson wins the Atlantic Division of the ACC, the conference’s championship game would be inconsequential to the Buffs’ fate. Again, just for the sake of cleanliness, it’s probably better for CU if the top three spots in the playoff are perfectly clear to the entire country.
If you’re still not totally convinced, here’s how the final College Football Playoff rankings would look should the 11 steps above play out. This is, of course, a ballpark guess based on “style points” in victories.
- Alabama (13-0)
- Clemson (13-0)
- Michigan (13-0)
- Colorado (11-2)
- Texas A&M (10-2)
- Ohio State (10-2)
- Washington (12-1)
- Wisconsin (10-3)
- Louisville (10-2)
- LSU (8-3) *Had a game cancelled
- Auburn (9-3)
- Nebraska (9-3)
- Penn State (9-3)
- Oklahoma (9-3)
- Florida (8-3) *Had a game cancelled
The biggest challenge would be convincing the committee CU deserves to be in over Texas A&M and Ohio State, to which the response would be a three-part answer.
First, at least Colorado made their conference championship game.
Second, oh yeah, they won said game.
Third, they beat an undefeated team in the process.
Seems logical enough.
The reality is, a lot has to go Colorado’s way for the team to make the playoff. First and foremost, CU has to run the table – which in and of itself is going to be extremely tough.
Nothing in the 11-part plan is super unrealistic; having all 11 things happen is, of course, fairly unrealistic.
But maybe the perfect storm will indeed come together. Maybe, just maybe, the Buffs will be playing Bama on New Year’s Eve.
So you’re telling me there’s a chance!