As Avalanche fans continue to watch the tense, back-and-fourth battle for the playoffs between Colorado and the Minnesota Wild, there is a lot for them to be nervous about. Obviously, there is still a lot of hockey to be played and a lot that can go in Colorado’s favor, but as of now, there are a few obstacles going against the Avalanche, making the playoff push a difficult one.
The Wild continue to find ways to get wins, winning two of their last three games in a shootout. They most recently beat the Los Angeles Kings, one of the NHL’s most dangerous teams heading into the playoffs, 2-1 in tight, dramatic fashion.
The final nine games of the Avalanche’s season are all against powerful, talented teams that are either in the playoffs already or fighting desperately for their chance to get into the playoffs.
Not to mention, the top two point getters for Colorado in Matt Duchene (56) and Nathan MacKinnon (52) are missing crucial games down the final stretch. Both players are out with knee injuries and there are no exact timetables for their return.
With all of the above factors being out of Colorado’s control, the players would be the first to say that their focus must lie only in what they have the power of controlling. Following are four areas of the Avalanche’s game that will have to be on point if they are going to hold a Wild Card spot come seasons end.
The Penalty Kill
Colorado’s ability to kill penalties as of late has been one of the biggest reasons for their moderate success. The Avalanche have allowed only two power-play goals in the last 15 games and have positioned themselves 10th overall in the NHL’s penalty-kill statistics, with an 82.1% success rate.
Their kill will have to be sharper than ever down the stretch, as seven of Colorado’s final nine games are against teams that are top-ten power play teams in the league. Three of those teams — the Washington Capitals, Anaheim Ducks and Dallas Stars, respectively — are the NHL’s three best in power-play scoring.
Not only will stopping the league’s most potent playoff bound teams be a huge task in itself, but doing so while being a man down could single handedly make or break the Stanley Cup playoff hopes for Colorado.
EJ & Barrie
The success of the Avalanche often depends on the success of Erik Johnson and Tyson Barrie. The two defensemen who occupy the right side of the first and second pairings have both seen about 25 minutes a night recently. An injury to Eric Gelinas on the third defensive pairing and a shortage of confidence in the alternative options to fill his spot have given Johnson and Barrie a more significant role and heightened expectations.
The defensive unit as a whole is often the scapegoat for any lack of success throughout the season, and Tyson Barrie is frequently criticized for his minus-15 plus/minus while Johnson isn’t far ahead with a minus-9. The performances of the entire defensive group will need to be at its best to ensure success for the Avalanche and it must be lead by the core members in E.J. and Barrie.
Erik Johnson and Tyson Barrie have recently made their presences felt on the offensive end. With four goals and five assists between the two in the month of March, their help putting points on the scoresheet will be needed more than ever now that the Avs are facing detrimental injuries to their two top scorers.
92-34-18
Ever since the acquisition of winger Shawn Matthias right before the trade deadline, head coach Patrick Roy has found a line combination for the keeping. With Gabriel Landeskog opposite of Matthias, and Carl Soderberg handling the center duties, this trio has produced nine goals in eleven games. Of course, Landeskog was suspended for three of those eleven, yet the three members of this line have combined for 26 points since Matthias’ first game, a 4-3 shootout win against San Jose in late February.
With the injuries to Matt Duchene and Nathan MacKinnon plucking the centers out of three of the four lines, the Matthias-Soderberg-Landeskog combo is the only unit still in tact. The Avalanche will have to count on this line for a majority of its scoring, and looking at how they have gelled together so quickly, this line will be up to the task.
#VarlyVarly
As he has been known to do in the past, Avs goalie Semyon Varlamov will have to carry his team through this final stretch and into the playoffs. Considering the upcoming schedule, the impact on scoring the current injuries will have and the fact that the Avalanche are the NHL’s worst team in the Corsi category, Varlamov will have his hands full in the final nine games.
Varly’s play will have to be as hot as ever, but luckily, his play has been heating up down the stretch. His season stats to date are a 2.66 goals against average and a .917 save percentage. In the month of March, however, Varlamov has a 1.83 goals against and a .939 save percentage. This .939 save percentage is identical to his save percentage in March and April of the 2013-14 season when the Avalanche made a surprising run at winning the Central Division and Varly was a Vezina candidate.
Considering the current circumstances, it seems as though Varlamov will have to play out of his mind to finish out the season as the Avs hope for the playoffs. Varlamov, his teammates and head coach Patrick Roy are all confident in his ability to carry the team, now its simply a matter of execution. If Colorado is going to steal the final Wild Card spot in the Western Conference, Semyon Varlamov will have to be the main culprit.