It’s Anyone’s Call in the AFC
The road to Super Bowl 50 may run through Denver on paper, but it could certainly make other stops along the way (or bypass the city altogether). While it may pain Denver Broncos fans to hear it, there’s a chance that the team representing the AFC in Santa Clara might never breathe the Mile High air in January.
The American Football Conference this year has already seen a dizzying round-robin of results between playoff opponents during the regular season. The No. 1 seed has defeated the Nos. 2 and 3 seeds, while splitting with the No. 5 seed and losing to the No. 6 seed. The No. 2 seed has lost to the No. 1 seed, but defeated the Nos. 4 and 6 seeds. The No. 3 seed has defeated the No. 5 seed, split with the No. 6 seed and lost to the Nos. 1 and 6 seeds.
Here’s another way to put it: The No. 4 seed Texans beat the No. 3 seed Bengals who beat the No. 5 seed Chiefs who beat the No. 6 seed Steelers who beat the No. 1 seed Broncos who beat the No. 2 seed Patriots who beat the No. 4 seed Texans. Confused yet?
The bottom line is this: The AFC is wide open. So with that in mind, we attempt to rank the AFC title contenders as they currently stand, heading into Wild Card weekend.
No. 6 – Houston Texans
Someone had to win the AFC South. The league requires it. Enter the 9-7 Houston Texans who won out against Indianapolis, Tennessee and Jacksonville to clinch the league’s worst division. (And that’s saying something, considering how bad the NFC East was this year.)
Brian Hoyer will start at quarterback after leading the win at Jacksonville to clinch the South (and a No. 4 default seeding), despite a rocky season that saw him benched both for performance and concussions. He was one of four quarterbacks to lead Houston to a victory this year, the first time a team has accomplished such a feat since 1950.
The Texans, much like the Broncos, are led by a stout defense, one that ranked third in the league in yards per game and tied for seventh in points per game. Houston’s biggest problem all year (beyond their quarterback carousel) was their inability to score. They finished the year scoring just 21.2 points per game, tied for 21st in the league.
Their first opponent, Kansas City, allows just 17.9 PPG, good for third in the league. The Texans will need their middle of the road passing (18th) and rushing (15th) attacks to make a big leap forward to escape even the Wild Card round, let alone win on the road afterward.
No. 5 – New England Patriots
Tom Brady and the New England Patriots appear to be in a tailspin. After starting the season 10-0, they have lost four of their last six games, including their last two games of the regular season. Either win would have locked up a No. 1 seed.
They still ended up with the second seed, which is good news for a team that has been ravaged by injuries. New England has 14 players on injured reserve at present and Julian Edelman is questionable for their Divisional round matchup. Brady was nicked up in the season finale against Miami, but with two weeks to recover should be back to full strength.
The real question is whether the Pats are truly reeling or if Bill Belichick is just playing possum. On Sunday, Brady made just six pass attempts in the first half, the lowest of his career. Some critics say it’s because their offensive line is struggling so mightily, but what if it’s just another Belichick ruse? The Pats aren’t afraid of traveling to Denver for a rematch, and another Broncos Divisional round loss could put the AFC title game in Foxborough for the fourth time in five years.
Momentum is everything in the NFL; can the Patriots regain theirs?
No. 4 – Pittsburgh Steelers
Unlike their AFC North counterparts (the Cincinnati Bengals), the Pittsburgh Steelers have proven they can win in the playoffs. This year they’re going to have to prove they can do it on the road.
As the No. 6 seed, they’ll open with a trip to those very same Bengals, whom they beat in the jungle just one month ago. A win there would lead to a Divisional round game against the Broncos in Denver and it would be anyone’s guess from there. Pittsburgh stumbled in Week 16 against the Ravens, but has won five of their last six, including wins over both Cincinnati and Denver.
The Steelers’ defense has been above-average, but not outstanding, this year, ranking 11th in points allowed. Where Pittsburgh has done its damage is through the air. They boast the AFC’s top passing attack, despite quarterback Ben Roethlisberger starting only 11 games. They rank third in the entire NFL in passing and scoring.
The biggest question mark for their Wild Card matchup with Cincinnati will be whether or not that high-powered passing attack will be the same without the threat of DeAngelo Williams on the ground. Williams, who surprised this year in place of the injured Le’Veon Bell is doubtful for the game because of an ankle sprain. With a healthy Williams, the Steelers might have been ranked as high as second on this list.
No. 3 – Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are one of three AFC teams with big questions at quarterback entering the playoffs. After Andy Dalton was injured in a Week 14 loss to the Steelers, A.J. McCarron has gone 2-1, beating the 49ers and Ravens, losing to the Broncos in overtime in Denver.
McCarron hasn’t been asked to do much, having passed for no more than 186 yards in any of his starts, but he hasn’t needed to. Cincinnati’s suffocating defense is doing enough to keep games close and their 18 rushing touchdowns this season are putting points on the board regardless of who’s under center. The Bengals rank behind only the Chiefs (19) in rushing TDs on the year. They rank second in points allowed at just 17.4 per game.
The biggest challenge the Bengals may have at the No. 3 seed is mental. This year will mark their fifth consecutive trip to the playoffs and sixth in seven years. They have yet to win a playoff game in that time. They get the Steelers at home, with a potential date in New England to follow. The Bengals and Steelers split during the season, with each team winning on the road.
It wouldn’t be a stretch to say that this is the year the Bengals get over the hump (fool me six times shame on Marvin Lewis?), but facing the playoff-tested Steelers and two-time Super Bowl champion Ben Roethlisberger to start this year’s run seems like a tall order.
If McCarron can continue to manage the game and the defense remains stout, there’s a good chance they’re headed to Foxborough, as the Steelers without DeAngelo Williams are beatable.
No. 2 – Denver Broncos
Gary Kubiak knows who his quarterback will be for the Divisional round game on January 17 at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. He just hasn’t informed the public.
Make no doubt though, Kubiak is already game-planning with either Brock Osweiler or Peyton Manning. While the rest of the team enjoys some much-needed time to get healthy, Kubiak and his QB have to figure out how to fix the offense.
The Broncos have key defensive starters nursing injuries, including Darian Stewart, Chris Harris and DeMarcus Ware, but defense hasn’t really been the question for Denver this year. The league’s No. 1 defense in sacks, yards allowed and passing yards allowed (they’re also third against the run), has found a way to stop opponents all year despite injuries and suspensions.
The problem for Denver has been putting points on the board and holding on to the ball. Denver did not score in the second half of three consecutive games late in the season. They rank 19th in the league in scoring, last among playoff teams not named the Texans.
They are the only team in the playoffs with a negative plus/minus turnover margin, swung from break even to a minus-4 in the season finale against the Chargers, who finished the year 4-12.
Still, the Broncos are finding a way to win. Only three of their 12 victories are by more than six points and they have needed overtime to win on three occasions. It hasn’t been pretty, but the Broncos will enjoy home-field advantage for as long as they can keep scratching out victories.
The question is whether or not they can keep finding ways to win as the pressure mounts. The best news for Broncos fans is that Denver is 4-0 in prime time games against playoff opponents this year. When the brightest lights are shining, Denver finds a way to win.
No. 1 – Kansas City Chiefs
To paraphrase the immortal Crash Davis, you don’t mess with a streak. The Bull Durham protagonist may have been talking about baseball and women’s underwear, but the logic certainly applies to the Kansas City Chiefs, who enter the playoffs as the NFL’s hottest team.
The winners of 10 straight, Kansas City has not suffered a loss since before Halloween – Oct. 18 to be exact. Some have been of the blowout variety (33-3 over the Chargers) and some have been nail-biters (10-3 over those same Chargers), but one thing has been consistent: Kansas City has won and their opponents haven’t scored much.
Like their stealthy win streak, the Chiefs have crept up into the top-three in the league in scoring defense, top four in sacks and top five in takeaways. They have a ferocious front seven that has been problematic for teams with weak offensive lines, which could spell trouble for both Denver and New England if Kansas City can beat Houston in the Wild Card round.
Also propelling their success is a running game that hasn’t missed a beat with the loss of Jamaal Charles. KC ranks fifth in the league on the ground and has 19 rushing touchdowns, tied for most in the league.
Perhaps most importantly, the Chiefs aren’t giving the ball away. They are second to New England in giveaways with 15, but have an impressive plus-14 differential thanks to 28 takeaways.
To beat the Chiefs, you have to stop their front-seven, stop the run and take the ball away from them. For three straight months, no one has been able to do that. They may be the No. 5 seed, but they look like a team that could grind its way to a Super Bowl berth in the wide-open and question-filled AFC.