It’s currently mid-afternoon on Tuesday, and the Denver Broncos really have no idea whom they’re playing on Sunday.
With the health of Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and DeAngelo Williams up in the air, any number of Pittsburgh Steelers teams could be coming into Denver this weekend. If they get ahold of some of Russell Wilson‘s “Magic Water,” miraculously healing themselves overnight, then Denver could be facing one of the most explosive offenses in recent NFL history. But if one, two or all three of them miss the game, or are significantly hobbled, then the Broncos could be looking at a team falling apart at the seams.
Word coming out of Pittsburgh is that it may closer to the latter than the former, but I’d take that with a grain of salt; it’s not like Mike Tomlin isn’t known to play mind games.
Right now, the best thing the Broncos can do is prepare for a locked-and-loaded Steelers offense; if they catch a break, great.
Here are three things the Denver Broncos should keep in mind as they prepare for the Pittsburgh Steelers:
Bring the heat!
Ben Roethlisberger is great. He is really, really great. And when healthy, he may just be the best quarterback in the NFL.
But he’s not perfect.
There is a way to get to Ben Roethlisberger, and that’s by blitzing the crap out of him. According to Pro Football Focus, while Big Ben has accrued an outstanding 34.8 grade when not blitzed, he’s been a very pedestrian -2.7 when blitzed. Likewise, when under pressure, Roethlisberger finished the season with just the 20th best accuracy percentage.
Big Ben may be known for his playmaking ability when the things fall apart, but when faced with direct pressure, he’s an average quarterback. And I can’t imagine things will improve much when he’s dealing with an injured shoulder and a concussed wideout.
At times this season, Wade Phillips has been relentless with his pressures, but at other times, he’s relied on his front four to get to the quarterback; this can’t be one of those days.
If Denver brings the house all game, they’ll walk away with a win on Sunday.
The Broncos have to run the ball
Think of the Denver Broncos’ big wins this season. What’s the one similarity between the Chargers win, the Patriots win and the Packers win?
They ran the ball!
Every time the Broncos offense has come up big this season, it’s been because they’ve built their offense around their run game; in all four of those games, at least one of Denver’s backs scored a touchdown, and aside from the Bengals game, at least one crossed the 100-yard threshold.
But what happened in the Steelers game? Denver’s backs only totaled 18 carries on the night, and, you guessed it, they lost.
Now, remember, this was a game where the Broncos held a 17-point lead late in the first half. They had every reason to take control of the clock, grind out some yards on the ground and protect that lead. Instead, they put the ball in Brock Osweiler‘s hands, and he led eight second-half drives that took two minutes or less off the clock — the ninth took 2:03.
That’s unacceptable.
If you’re looking to salt away a two-touchdown lead in the second half, the last thing you want to do is take as little time off the clock as possible. The Steelers scored the game-winning touchdown with 3:24 left in the game; maybe they don’t get that touchdown if the Broncos drained a few extra minutes off the clock.
According to PFF, the Steelers have the 22nd best run defense in the NFL. If I’m Gary Kubiak, I’m giving Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson 15 carries each, I’m taking pressure off of Peyton Manning and I’m instilling our will on the Steelers’ front line. The Broncos are not winning any games where Manning (or Osweiler) is throwing the ball 45-plus times.
This piece brought to you in part by …
[adrotate banner=”16″]Forget Chris Harris Jr.’s last performance against the Steelers
Chris Harris Jr. may be one of the best, most-consistent cornerbacks in the NFL, but as we head into the postseason, all anybody can remember is his disastrous performance against Antonio Brown — and it was disastrous. On 13 targets, Harris gave up 12 receptions for 137 yards and two touchdowns, scoring the lowest PFF (-4.5) grade of his career.
In fact, since he entered the league in 2011, Harris has only graded lower than -1.0 (a “Red” grade) five times, none of which had come in the last two seasons. Actually, Harris didn’t have a single negative game in 2014, and he had just three in 2015 (all between -0.3 and -0.7) before his performance against Pittsburgh.
All of which is to say … Chris Harris Jr. is an unbelievably good cornerback.
Pro Football Focus has had Harris graded as a top-six cornerback in each of the last four years (he was No. 1 in 2014 and No. 3 this season), which is something no other cornerback can say, and that includes Richard Sherman, Darrelle Revis, Patrick Peterson and anyone else you want to throw out there.
Harris didn’t get lit up by Antonio Brown because he’s a bad cornerback; he got lit up because (a) Brown is great, (b) he was probably due for one bad game and (c) Wade Phillips asked Harris to do what no other defensive coordinator would ask their No. 1 cornerback to do: Try to stop Antonio Brown man-to-man for four straight quarters, an impossible task.
If Brown does end up playing this weekend, I can promise you that Phillips won’t do that again. I can also promise you that Harris won’t give up 12 receptions for 137 yards and two touchdowns.