It’s time to take stock.
The Denver Nuggets have nearly reached the halfway point of the season, and they’re currently sitting with a record of 15-24, putting them on pace for 32 wins (one more than they had last season). In most every imaginable scenario, that would mean the Nuggets are in the midst of a lost season. Somehow, though, that is not the case.
Against all odds, the Nuggets are two games out of the the playoffs, as of January 15, and that means Denver’s front office is about to face an extremely tough, franchise-defining decision. And unfortunately for Tim Connelly and company, that decision was made even tougher by the Nuggets’ upset over the Golden State Warriors on Wednesday night.
Here’s the decision: Buy, sell or stay put?
The answer to that decision could determine what this franchise looks like for the next three, four, five years, if not more. And what makes it so hard is that all three options make a lot of sense.
Now, they have some time — the trade deadline is on February 18 — but the sooner they act, the more profitable they may be.
So let’s help them out a bit; here’s a breakdown of where each path could lead the Denver Nuggets:
Buy:
Not only are the Nuggets in the playoff race, but you can make a legitimate case that they’re the favorites for the eight seed. As of January 15, the Jazz are currently in that final spot, with the Trail Blazers and Kings in between them and the Nuggets, but the Nuggets team that has gotten to this point is not the Nuggets team we should expect to see going forward.
They’re just getting rolling!
We’re two-and-a-half months into the season, and Wednesday night against the Warriors was the first time all year that Michael Malone entered the game with a full roster — sorry, J.J. Hickson, I doubt you would have seen the court with or without the root canal — and look what happened. They beat the Warriors!
Now, I’m not saying a healthy Nuggets team is better than the Warriors — they’re not — but the truth is, we have no idea how good they are. Maybe they’re just a borderline playoff team, but maybe they are just as good as a team like the Mavericks or Grizzlies. I doubt it, but I can’t say for sure.
Until last night, some combination of Jusuf Nurkic, Emmanuel Mudiay, Gary Harris, Kenneth Faried, etc., etc., etc., has been sitting on the sidelines, doing nothing for the Nuggets on the court. That’s debilitating, especially for a young team with a brand new head coach.
For 39 games, Malone has been like the NBA’s version of MacGyver, assembling lineups out of new materials every night. How can we expect him, or the players, to create any kind of stability when you have a starter or two missing at all times.
And remember, this team is almost entirely built of first- and second-year players who are still learning how to play NBA basketball. Whether it’s them missing time or the guy next to them, there’s no question that their development as a team has been stunted, and yet Malone has still done a great job in getting all of these young guys to surpass expectations.
You’d hope that as they get (and remain) healthy, they’re only going to get better from here. And if they think they’re in position to make a late push up the playoff picture, then why not turn some of these assets into someone who can push you over the edge?
Right now, Denver has five big men deserving of starter’s minutes; they’re not getting that here. So why not turn Kenneth Faried and the Trailblazers’ lottery-protected first round pick (if it doesn’t transfer this season, it becomes two seconds), into a stretch four like Ryan Anderson?
How dangerous would the Nuggets become if they trotted out a starting lineup that included four perimeter shooters in Jameer Nelson, Gary Harris, Danilo Gallinari and Anderson, with Jusuf Nurkic bodying up guys on the inside? Heck, Nelson and Anderson have already run a very successful offense that did just that when they were in Orlando with Dwight Howard.
The counterpoint to making a move like that would be that even with the eighth seed, the Nuggets would only be trounced by the Warriors in the first round. My counterpoint to the counterpoint: Who says the eight seed is the ceiling? Denver is 6.5 games out of the fifth seed, and if the Nuggets really can make a move that turns them into a truly competitive team, I’m not so sure that’s an insurmountable number.
Sell:
With all that said, the Nuggets are a long ways away from being a championship contender, no matter what they do. They could trade Danilo Gallinari for Kevin Durant right now, and they still wouldn’t come close to taking down the Spurs or Warriors.
So why throw away assets for the immediate gratification of the playoffs, when they could build for the future?
The Nuggets may be two games out of the playoffs, but they’re also just 2.5 games away from falling towards a top-five pick in the NBA draft. Wouldn’t it make sense for Tim Connelly to become a major seller at the deadline, bring in assets (both players and picks), let Denver’s young nucleus play heavy minutes, lose games and walk away with a top-five pick and another building block for next season?
I know it’s not going to help fan attendance or support, but it’s not as if it can get any worse. The Nuggets are already last in attendance, and the only thing that’s going to change that is a successful team; that’s what they’d be building towards.
And here’s the other advantage: They’d be one of the only sellers.
Look around the league, the Nuggets aren’t the only sub-500 team vying for a playoff spot; 90 percent of the league still thinks they have a legitimate shot at the playoffs!
Teams like the Trail Blazers, Kings, Pelicans, Knicks and Hornets would all normally be clear “sellers” at this point in the season, but it’s hard to make that decision when you’re two games out of the playoffs. Instead, much like I laid out with the Nuggets above, they may be looking to add one more piece and make a playoff push. And if all these teams decide to take that route, there’s not going to be enough assets to go around.
That would leave the Nuggets in a very profitable situation. Whereas Randy Foye has been inconsistent at best in Denver, a “shooter” like him could immediately become the “missing piece” for a team looking to climb into the playoffs; if multiple teams feel that way, suddenly his price rises to the point that Denver wouldn’t be able to sign those trade papers fast enough.
The same goes for Kenneth Faried, Joffrey Lauvergne, Jameer Nelson, Will Barton and Danilo Gallinari.
Gut the roster, stash away a wad of picks and let the young guys play 30-plus minutes a game. Then, when it comes time to make a major move down the line, not only do you have a bunch of exciting young talent to offer, but you’ve got a treasure trove of draft picks.
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[adrotate banner=”16″]Stay Put:
Of course, the final option is to do nothing; defer to the second half, as the Broncos might say.
If Denver finds that they’re really not sure which direction they want to go, maybe it’s better to just not do anything. At least that way they can’t mess anything up.
In this scenario, they’d play out the season, we’d enter the offseason with a better understanding of who’s a building block and who’s expendable, and you make the big-time decisions during the draft. If picks are what the Nuggets want, then creating a package to move up on draft night may be more effective than trying to find them right now.
And really, do we know who’s a building block yet? I’ll admit: A month ago I would have been A-OK with trading Gallo; now, after the month he’s put up, I think he may just be our franchise player, a true No. 1 option. But these last few weeks could just be a fluke, too. I don’t know.
Likewise, the Nuggets currently have five big men who are playing some of the best ball of their career, but that can’t last; Michael Malone doesn’t need three centers. But which one do you trade? Joffrey Lauvergne’s the easy answer — he’s hardly playing with the return of Jusuf Nurkic — but maybe you get more bang for your buck with Nurkic or Nikola Jokic?
And what do the Nuggets really need, anyways? If they were going to go out and get that one missing piece, what is it? A stretch-four sounds nice, but if they can’t defend, does that do them any good? Again, the best option may be to use this season as an opportunity to take stock of what you have. The Nuggets can always change course down the line.
Solution:
I call this “solution,” but even I don’t believe it. As I wrote each option, I found myself agreeing emphatically with each one, and that’s what makes this so hard. They all could be the option that gets the Nuggets back to being a perennial playoff contender, and they all could be the option that sets Denver back another three years.
But if I had to choose an option, I’m going sell.
While I’d love to see the Nuggets back in the playoffs, even if they do just end up getting swept in the first round, this season is, and always has been, about the future, not the present. And when I close my eyes and imagine the Nuggets in three years, I most definitely don’t see guys like Randy Foye, Darrell Arthur, Joffrey Lauvergne, Will Barton or Kenneth Faried being there. So why not get something for them now, especially when “buyers” could be willing to pay well above market value.
Plus, a top-five selection wouldn’t be that bad, either. Who knows, maybe Denver wins the NBA’s version of the Powerball and walks away with Ben Simmons?
But as far as Gallo is concerned, I’d keep him. Remember, the guy is only 27 years old, and he essentially had two full seasons taken away from him thanks to a botched ACL procedure. He finally looks to be getting his legs under him, and he looks better than ever.
Any way the Nuggets decide to go, though, there’s reason to be optimistic. The rebuild process may not be fun, but it’s working.