With a win on Sunday against the Browns in Cleveland, the Denver Broncos would enter their bye week with an unblemished record of 6-0. It would be the third time since 2009 the team has rattled off six wins without a loss to open the season, having done so that year and again in 2013.
The 2013 Broncos, led by Peyton Manning, finished the season 13-3 and rode one of the most prolific offenses in the history of the NFL to the franchise’s seventh AFC title and the Super Bowl. The team led the league in yards, passing yards and scoring, with Manning setting single-season NFL records in passing yards (5,477) and touchdown passes (55). Save for the epic collapse in Super Bowl XLVIII, it was one of the greatest seasons in franchise (and nearly NFL) history.
2009, on the other hand, was an entirely different story. After starting the year 6-0 under what appeared to be a wunderkind new head coach, Josh McDaniels, the team lost four in a row on their way to an 8-8 season. The year ended with another four-game slide, including a 44-24 beatdown at home at the hands of the Chiefs, who finished 4-12, in the finale. The slide set the stage for what was to come in 2010 – the disastrous season that included “McSpygate” and the unceremonious ouster of McDaniels.
Two 6-0 starts, two vastly different directions.
The 2015 Broncos appear poised to post another 6-0 start. Strangely, however, there are some similarities between both the 2013 and the 2009 teams.
In 2013, Denver had a questionable defense but it’s offense was capable of overpowering nearly every opponent. In 2015, the offense has struggled to find form, but has been buoyed by a defense that has thus far been tops in the league.
In 2009, the team was stout on defense, but by no means world class. The offense, led by Kyle Orton, was serviceable at best. It was a team with obvious flaws that started hot and came crashing down to earth. So far in 2015, Denver has been exposed to have obvious flaws on offense and fans are fearing that things on the defensive side of the ball could crumble at any minute.
So which team is the 2015 incarnation of the Denver Broncos more likely to become? A team that sets franchise and NFL records en route to a Super Bowl, or the one that finishes 8-8 and missed the playoffs? We asked two experts from Mile High Sports AM 1340 for their take.
Eric Goodman of Afternoon Drive says he sees more of the 13-3 team.
Joe Rico of The Final Word says they’re closer to being 8-8.
A win on Sunday against Cleveland will put the Broncos at 6-0, the exact same place they were six games in to the 2013 season in which they went to the Super Bowl, riding an historic offense.
This year, it’s the defense that is carrying the team. Through five games, Denver has league best 22 sacks (on pace for 70.4 for the year) and has allowed just 15.8 points per game – second best in the NFL. Both of those numbers figure to improve against a Browns offensive line that has allowed 18 sacks and 46 QB hits en route to a 2-3 record.
Eric Goodman of Afternoon Drive on Mile High Sports AM 1340 says the 2015 Broncos are far more likely to find themselves with a 13-3 record like the 2013 Broncos than the 2009 Broncos – the other team since that time to go 6-0 – who ultimately finished the year 8-8 and out of the playoffs.
“I don’t see this defense slipping,” says Goodman. “This defense is good enough to carry the team to double-digit wins and a playoff berth.”
Goodman isn’t convinced the team can run away with 13 wins in the same fashion the 2013 team did, hardly being challenged along the way, but he also doesn’t see the nail-biting trends of Weeks 1 through 6 continuing either.
“The Broncos aren’t going to need Bradley Roby to return a fumble, or David Bruton to punch a ball out of a receiver’s hands so Darian Stewart can intercept it, or Chris Harris to return an interception for a touchdown in every game. At some point the offense is going to do its part more and won’t need to be save in the last five minutes by the defense,” Goodman says.
That doesn’t mean he sees things going perfectly.
“Aaron Rodgers and the Packers may carve up the Broncos,” he says. “He’s just so athletic and is playing at such an elite level right now. But he’s the exception. So are the Patriots. This defense won’t win every game, but it will get the team to the playoffs.”
Joe Rico of The Final Word isn’t so confident. He sees this Broncos team looking more like the 2009 team that started 6-0 and ended 8-8.
A win on Sunday against Cleveland will put the Broncos at 6-0, the exact same place they were six games in to the 2009 season in which they finished 8-8 and failed to make the playoffs.
This year, Denver has played a fortunate schedule that includes five teams who are below .500 (including one winless team) – a trend that continues when they face the 2-3 Browns with a chance to go 6-0. Denver got off to a hot start in 2009, surprising quite a few teams (as the defense has done so far in 2015), but came crashing down to earth with four consecutive losses and another four to close out the season.
Joe Rico of The Final Word sees more than a few similarities between the 2009 team and this year’s team.
“It all starts with the quarterback,” he notes. “Who did they have in ’09? Kyle Orton. Maybe we’re seeing the Kyle Orton version of Peyton Manning in 2015.
“It’s apparent that Manning isn’t capable of lifting his play any more. His arm is shot – it was never great to begin with – and he’s either taking self sacks or making bad decisions because he’s afraid of playing behind this offensive line.”
It’s the line that Rico thinks will be the team’s ultimate undoing.
“With the status of this o-line, it’s a wild card if Manning is even going to be able to finish the season. He’s on pace to be sacked more than 40 times this year. His career high is 29 and his average is 16. Can he withstand that kind of punishment?”
Unfortunately for Broncos fans, Rico says Denver’s worst games are ahead of them.
“Manning couldn’t score a touchdown on one of the worst secondaries in the league. They might not crash as hard as the ’09 Broncos (losers of four straight after starting 6-0), but I can foresee three games in the month of November in which the offense doesn’t score a touchdown.
“Will they be 8-8? Probably not. But they’re a lot closer to being 8-8 than 13-3. This defense can’t stay this miraculous forever.”
Rico also reminds us that the 2006 Broncos allowed just 44 points en route to a 5-1 record to start the season, but failed to make the playoffs after finishing 9-7.
“9-7 could win the division this year if things continue to play out the way they have been in San Diego and Oakland so far, but the Broncos won’t just run away with the West like everyone is thinking they will.”
Where do you weigh in? Are the Broncos more likely to turn this undefeated start into a 13-3 season or an 8-8 season? Give us your thoughts in the comments section below.