With the first-round playoff bye now officially in the rearview mirror and the team nearing full-strength, it’s officially time for the Denver Broncos to put their focus on the Pittsburgh Steelers and a Divisional Round matchup this Sunday.
Partly through some luck, but mostly through perseverance, the Broncos carry the AFC’s No. 1 seed and need just two wins to secure a berth in their second Super Bowl in three years. The regular season by no means came as easily as it did in 2013 when the team last held a top seed. Denver relied heavily on defense this year, securing nine of their 12 victories by seven points or less with several games hinging on defensive scoring plays.
But this is the playoffs and Denver cannot afford to be one-dimensional. Still alive in pursuit of football’s ultimate goal are other smothering defenses, as well as high-powered offenses. Denver’s first test comes against the Steelers who ranked fourth in scoring during the regular season, with either New England (third) or Kansas City (ninth) to follow. The 19th-ranked Denver offense is going to have to find ways to put points on the board to win it all.
It’s perhaps hyperbole to say that “every guy needs to show up,” in order for the Broncos to win. At this point in the season, it’s most important for the right guys to show up.
In this week’s “Studs & Duds” we examine which players on offense need to deliver big performances throughout the playoffs, and those who can afford to falter, if Denver hopes to be hosting a Super Bowl parade come February.
Can be a Dud No. 3 – Pick a Guard, Any Guard
In the second half of the season, Gary Kubiak began employing a guard rotation that saw rookie Max Garcia spelling veterans Evan Mathis and Louis Vasquez both to preserve their long-term health as well as keep them fresh within each game. As a result, Garcia has accelerated his progress as a rookie and Mathis and Vasquez are as healthy as they’ve been all season, now heading into the most important games of the year.
Not only has the rotational system been good for health and development, it’s also yielding positive results in the statistics as well.
Since Week 8, Denver has rushed for more than 100 yards seven times and gone 6-1 in those games. Mathis was graded the best run-blocking guard in the league all season by Pro Football Focus and the combination of Garcia and Vasquez have allowed just two sacks in over 1,400 snaps. Garcia has been at his best in the running game, which Denver figures to rely heavily on in the playoffs.
Thanks to the high level of skill with all three of these guards, plus the rotational system now in place, one of these guys can afford to not be at his best because there’s someone behind him to step in and pick up the slack. Head coach Gary Kubiak and offensive line coach Clancy Barone just need to keep their eyes peeled and have a quick hook if any one of them starts to struggle.
Individually, one can have an off day, but there are too many other weak links on Denver’s offensive line for the guards, as a unit, to come up empty.
Must be a Stud No. 3 – Owen Daniels
The storyline following the offseason acquisition of tight end Owen Daniels was that he was entering an offense that would likely see him post big touchdown numbers for the first time in his career. Fantasy owners who expected him to pick up where the departed Julius Thomas left off in the double-digit TD department were sorely disappointed. Peyton Manning himself didn’t even post double-digit touchdowns this year, let alone his new tight end.
In the early parts of the season it appeared that Daniels was a poor replacement for Thomas, as he had only two touchdowns and one game of even five receptions through Denver’s first eight games. He has only found the end zone one time since Week 9, but Daniels’ value has showed up in other critical areas.
Late in the season he became a late-game first down machine. Third and ten? Whether it was Manning or Brock Osweiler at the helm, Daniels was pulling in long conversions in the toughest situations. The ten-year veteran absorbed some crushing blows along the way, but always came up smiling and helped seal two critical wins in the closing weeks of the season. He’s been the definition of clutch down the stretch and will need to continue to have sticky hands in the playoffs.
The biggest area that Daniels needs to improve is on his run and pass blocking. Daniels has historically graded out very well in the run game and acceptably well in the pass game, but he’s having one of his worst years as a pro in that department this year. With several frightening edge rushes still to come, and the questionable protection at either tackle position, Daniels has to get his body on somebody or it could be devastating to Manning and the Broncos’ playoff hopes. At this point, Denver can’t expect the combination of Michael Schofield, Ryan Harris and Tyler Polumbus to contain the edges; Daniels has to help.
Must be a Stud No. 3a – Virgil Green
Because of the concerning run- and pass-blocking reasons outlined under Owen Daniels, and because midseason acquisition Vernon Davis has proved to be almost as ineffective this year as the future draft pick that was surrendered to acquire him, tight end Virgil Green must also play a major role in keeping Peyton Manning upright.
Green is hands-down Denver’s best blocking tight end and he’ll have a big task helping make up for the deficiencies at tackle that have been so apparent all season. His value follows very shortly behind Daniels’ in a deep playoff run.
“Studs & Duds” is presented in part by…
[adrotate group=”1″]Can be a Dud No. 2 – Demaryius Thomas
Wide receiver Demaryius Thomas put up more than 1,300 yards on 105 catches this season, yet at times Broncos fans and the media were darn near calling for him to be cut. That’ll happen when you only find the end zone six times and have several critical drops after signing a goliath offseason contract. But despite his struggles (yes, they were real, not perceived), Thomas was still the top receiver on the top team in the AFC.
Thomas certainly cost his team at times – his fumble against Oakland being a key example – but his presence on the field, especially late in the game, makes the Broncos one of the most dangerous teams in the hurry-up offense. His ability to catch and run – see San Diego and Cincinnati – force teams to double-cover him during the uptempo offense, freeing guys like Emmanuel Sanders and Owen Daniels to make chain-moving plays.
Kansas City is the only AFC team remaining with at top-10 passing defense. If both Denver and New England can take care of business at home, the stats play out in the Broncos’ favor to make it to the Super Bowl. There they could face any one of three top-10 passing defenses in Seattle, Arizona or Green Bay (with the Panthers lurking at No. 11).
DT might not get such a pass if and when it comes to the biggest game of the year, but he’s certainly not going to be solely to blame if Denver can’t get there. With two soft secondaries potentially on the docket, the Broncos should have plenty of other weapons available if Thomas isn’t at his best. And let’s not forget, a “not at his best” Thomas was yet again the best receiver Denver put on the field.
Must be a Stud No. 2 – C.J. Anderson
Running back C.J. Anderson expected to have a big year. As a Pro Bowler last season and being in a contract year, he really wanted to show the league that the second half of last season was no fluke.
But this year has been a mixed bag, not the continued breakout he’d hoped. Anderson made huge runs in wins against New England, Cincinnati and San Diego (to name a few) but struggled with nagging injuries that hampered his season on the whole, especially early. He did not find the end zone until Week 8 and then only four times since.
But Anderson has been coming on strong of late. Save for two potentially costly fumbles in the final two weeks of the season, he’s been gaining steam as the weeks go on (much like last year). Anderson is the ground-and-pound runner that sets up change-of-pace back Ronnie Hillman, yet Anderson has proven that he can break big runs and even find the end zone on them.
With all the questions on the offensive line in pass protection, and a quarterback returning to action who has played just one-and-half quarters of football in the past six weeks, Anderson will be absolutely critical to any sustained playoff success. The Broncos are 8-1 this year when they rush for more than 100 yards. The running game centers on Anderson, who has to put any doubts he might have from the early part of the season, and any ball security issues he’s had of late, behind him and carry this team on his back just like he’s wanted to since the beginning of the year.
Can be a Dud No. 1 – Michael Schofield
Right tackle Michael Schofield has been such a liability this season that it’s necessary to dust off the very dated early-2000s game show reference and tell him he is “the weakest link.” But we’ve seen that up until the Week 17 win over San Diego, with a first-round bye and Peyton Manning’s fragile body on the line, Gary Kubiak was not only unwilling to say “goodbye,” to Schofield, he was also unwilling to give him any help.
In fact, Schofield is such a glaring weakness that he might even be working in the Broncos favor as defenses try to stack the box against him. Manning is a master of checking into plays once he sees a defensive formation, as we saw on display again in the win over San Diego. Whether it’s Schofield or Tyler Polumbus, Manning knows that his biggest risk comes on the right edge. Unlike Brock Osweiler, Manning has the experience to read the defenses pre-snap and the smarts to unload the ball if his tackle gets beat.
Fortunately, a light appears to have gone off for Kubiak and there’s a chance that Polumbus will start at right tackle in place of Schofield. Hopefully, a much bigger light has gone off and Kubiak realizes that whomever is on Manning’s right edge is going to need some help (see Owen Daniels and Virgil Green).
Given what we know about Schofield, there’s no reason he should be the reason the Broncos get beat in the playoffs. Any failure to replace him or augment his play will be on Kubiak at this point.
Must be a Stud No. 1 – Peyton Manning
Everything begins and ends with Peyton Manning. He’s finally healthy from the torn plantar fascia that hindered his performance during the early part of the season. He’s had a full season with Gary Kubiak to learn what works and what doesn’t in this offense. He knows the weaknesses of the offensive line and that he can no longer force throws or make hasty decisions like he did when the line was considered a “work in progress.”
The line is still the biggest weakness on this team and Manning has to overcome that somehow, some way. In the basest of terms, there are simply no more excuses for the veteran quarterback who is still tied with Brett Favre for all-time wins as a starting quarterback.
Chided as a perennial playoff underachiever, Manning now finds himself in the position of being a regular season underachiever as well. Despite Denver’s 7-2 record with him as the starter this year, Manning has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns for the first time since his rookie season and at a nearly 2:1 clip. While he is the starting quarterback for the AFC’s top seed, his 67.9 passer rating is the worst of his career and below players like Jimmy Clausen and Matt Cassel. In years past it was often said Manning’s teams won because of him; this year it could be argued the Broncos have won often in spite of him.
If he truly wants to be remembered as one of the best quarterbacks ever and not just the best “regular season” quarterback, Manning has to win it all. And he certainly can’t be the cause of his team’s undoing.
He can’t try to rescue the team with his arm or trust his initial read at the line of scrimmage. Those kinds of decisions will lead to more of the same that we saw this season – interceptions, not touchdowns. He has to trust his running backs, go through his progressions and have faith that his body will hold up even if his line breaks down.
Manning doesn’t have to do it all. He’s got a solid pair of running backs in C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman. He’s got a dynamic wide receiver duo in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. And he has hands-down the best defense he’s ever had in his entire career on the other side of the ball.
Last year Russell Wilson was one questionable play call away from winning his second consecutive Super Bowl. His final line would have been 12-of-20 for 247 yards and two touchdowns. His opponent’s line read 37-of-50 for 328 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions.
Manning doesn’t have to do it all. But he does have to win it all to secure his legacy and deliver Denver’s third Lombardi Trophy. This year, the best way for Manning to be a stud may be to not try to be one at all.