John Elway — the most iconic sports figure in the Mile High City — has brought three championships to this city, two as the quarterback and one as the general manager. Elway is quickly climbing the ranks as one of the best executives in the NFL, and has only been doing it for five years.
The best way to evaluate a general manager is to look at their player personnel decisions. Last week we looked at the five best free agent signings during Elway’s time and evaluated the top five players that Elway let leave the Broncos. After reading both of those, it is pretty clear why Elway is already viewed as one of the best executives in the league.
When it comes to evaluating Elway, and his personnel staff, it is easy to point to free agency because of the flashy names of Peyton Manning, DeMarcus Ware and Aqib Talib; however, it is just as important to look at the draft.
Even thought Elway didn’t have the title of general manager until 2014, he has been calling the shots since joining the team in 2011.
When evaluating the drafts since 2011, there is good news and bad news. The good news is Elway has had two fantastic drafts. The bad news is Elway’s last great draft was in 2012. Last year’s draft can turn it around, but it is still too early to tell.
It is almost hard to believe how one executive could have two great drafts, and then follow them up with two very bad drafts. Without further to do, here are the rankings of the Elway drafts from worst to best:
5. 2013
Players In The League As Of 2015: 7 (5 on practice squad)
Players Set To Be Starters For Broncos In 2016: 1
High Value Picks (Round Drafted In): 0
Quality Picks (Round Drafted In): Sylvester Williams (1)
Busts (Round Drafted In): Montee Ball (2), Kayvon Webster (3), Quanterus Smith (5), Tavarres King (5), Vinston Painter (6), Zac Dysert (7)
The 2013 draft was by far Elway’s worst draft; not only did it produce only one starter, but it only produced two players who are regularly on an active roster. While it took Sylvester Williams a few years to develop, he has turned into a quality anchor for the Wade Phillips defense as the nose tackle.
At the time Kayvon Webster was picked, many people thought the Broncos reached by choosing him in the third round. After developing into nothing more than a backup that has seemed to play less and less each year, it’s hard to not call him a bust.
The biggest misjudgment of this draft was no doubt choosing Montee Ball in the second round. Not even taking into account the other players whom the Broncos could have drafted with this pick, Ball never even came close to the record-setting player that he was at Wisconsin. Ball never really showed flashes of greatness, as he couldn’t break a tackle or outrun defenders.
While all of the other players were fifth-round picks or later, none of them were consistently on the active roster or ever made any contribution to the team. Coming out of a draft with one player that regularly makes a contribution is truly terrible.
4. 2014
Players In The League As Of 2015: 6
Players Set To Be Starters For Broncos In 2016: 1-3
High Value Picks (Round Drafted In): Bradley Roby (1), Matt Paradis (6)
Quality Picks (Round Drafted In): Corey Nelson (7)
Busts (Round Drafted In): Cody Latimer (2), Michael Schofield (3), Lamin Barrow (5)
While the 2014 draft was considerably better than the 2013 draft, it still had major flaws. The Broncos hit in the first round, choosing Bradley Roby with the 31st overall pick after watching him slide all the way to the end of the first round. Even though Roby technically is not a starter, he has the impact of one. With names like Talib, Chris Harris Jr. and T.J. Ward, Roby’s name is sometimes forgotten as a member of the “No Fly Zone,” but he is a major factor.
Another great pick was Matt Paradis in the sixth round. After not contributing his rookie season, Paradis was the only offensive player to play every snap in 2015. Paradis showed how smart and versatile he was by having to adjust to two different quarterbacks during the season. Paradis could be the long-term option at center for the Broncos moving forward.
This coming season will be very telling for Corey Nelson. With Danny Trevathan going to the Bears, Nelson will have an opportunity to compete for the starting linebacker position. Even if Nelson doesn’t win the starting job, he is a solid backup; and getting a solid backup in the seventh round is a good pick.
The major disappointments in this draft were the second- and third-round picks, Cody Latimer and Michael Schofield. Second- and third-round picks should be very good players, especially a few years after the draft. Both of these guys have been given plenty of opportunities and both have come up very short.
Latimer is knows for being an all star in practice and training camp, but doing very little in game action. Schofield is remembered for giving up four sacks to Khalil Mack in the Raiders’ victory over the Broncos in December.
It is very hard to miss on your second- and third-round picks and still have a good draft. Elway missed on both of these and was not able to overcome it in the later rounds.
3. 2015
Players In The League As Of 2015: 8
Players Set To Be Starters For Broncos In 2016: 2-3
High Value Picks (Round Drafted In): Shane Ray (1)
Too Early To Tell (Round Drafted In): Ty Sambrailo (2), Jeff Heuerman (3), Max Garcia (4), Lorenzo Doss (5), Darius Kilgo (6), Trevor Siemian (7), Taurean Nixon (7)
Busts (Round Drafted In): Josh Furman (7)
The verdict is still very much out on the 2015 class, as it has only had one year to prove itself. The good news is there is still a chance that it can turn out to be a very good draft class; however, it can still be a bust, too.
As of right now, we know two things. It is fairly safe to say that Shane Ray was a good pick in the first round. Ray was another example of top talent slipping to the Broncos in the later part of the first round. He showed signs of why the Broncos added a fourth pass rusher, and has the potential to turn into a star in a few years.
We also know that Josh Furman was a bust since he was not in the league last year. Since he was drafted in the seventh round, it isn’t really fair to categorize him as a bust and hold it over Elway, but that’s where he lands.
Besides those two, the jury is still out on every other player. Second- and third-round picks, Ty Sambrailo and Jeff Heuerman, had major injuries last year that prevented them from giving us an idea of what they could end up being. Next year will be very telling for them.
Max Garcia will have an opportunity to start at the guard position, and as of right now, it is his to lose. With the departure of Malik Jackson, Darius Kilgo will also have an opportunity to gain more playing time along the defensive line. The last player that, as of right now, could have a chance to compete is Trevor Siemian. With the quarterback situation being such a question mark, it isn’t fair to count anyone out of the race.
The telling piece about this draft will be the play of Sambrailo, Heuerman and Garcia. If they step up and become starters, then this will be a very good draft, if they don’t perform, it will be very difficult to call this even an average draft.
2. 2011
Players In The League As Of 2015: 7
Players Set To Be Starters For Broncos In 2016: 1-2
High Value Picks (Round Drafted In): Von Miller (1), Orlando Franklin (2), Julius Thomas (4)
Quality Picks (Round Drafted In): Rahim Moore (2), Nate Irving (3), Virgil Green (7)
Busts (Round Drafted In): Quinton Carter (4), Mike Mohamed (6), Jeremy Beal (7)
For Elway’s first draft, this was a beauty. In any draft it is very difficult to hit on every pick; Elway hit on two-thirds of the picks in this draft, which is very good. All of Elway’s busts — Quinton Carter, Mike Mohamed and Jeremy Beal — were in the fourth round or later, which, again, is acceptable.
The key part of this draft’s success was Elway doing well in the first few rounds, and hitting on some late round guys.
Even though most people still have resentment towards Rahim Moore for letting Joe Flacco’s ball get over his head in the playoff game against Baltimore, Moore was a quality starter for the Broncos in the secondary for four years. Saying that, he sure didn’t live up to his self-proclaimed nickname of Rahim “The Dream” Moore.
Orlando Franklin and Julius Thomas were both very good picks for the Broncos, too. Orlando was a four-year starter for the Broncos on the offensive line, and while he wasn’t perfect, he was a very good player.
After Thomas recovered from injuries in his first two seasons in the league, he was a monster his last two seasons with the Broncos. Elway, and his staff, did a fantastic job by getting such a talent in the fourth round.
Finally, the first pick of the Elway era was a guy by the name of Von Miller. Looking back at the No. 2 overall pick five years later, it was a no brainer to choose Miller. What most people forget, is Miller was not the consensus choice to be picked at No. 2. Many people thought the Broncos were going to choose defensive lineman Marcell Dareus. While Dareus has proven to be a fine player, it is fair to say the Broncos made the correct pick choosing Von.
1. 2012
Players In The League As Of 2015: 6
Players Set To Be Starters For Broncos In 2016: 1
High Value Picks (Round Drafted In): Derek Wolfe (2), Malik Jackson (5), Danny Trevathan (6)
Quality Picks (Round Drafted In): Brock Osweiler (2), Ronnie Hillman (3), Omar Bolden (4)
Busts (Round Drafted In): Philip Blake (4)
While it was difficult to decide which draft class was better between 2011 and 2012, 2012 took the cake because of what they did without a first round pick. The Broncos started the 2012 draft with the No. 25 overall pick in the first round and ended up completing two trades to move them back to No. 36 and essentially picking up a fourth round pick in the process — which was then used to draft special teams player Omar Bolden.
In this draft, the Broncos picked up three great defensive players: Derek Wolfe in the second, Malik Jackson in the fifth and Danny Trevathan in the sixth. All three of these players were huge in the Broncos being the best defensive in the NFL last year and bringing the Lombardi Trophy to Denver.
Wolfe has been a great player for being a second round pick, but Jackson and Trevathan have turned out to be unbelievable picks in the later rounds of the draft. Both of these picks could very easily be the best picks in the Elway era, and to do it in back-to-back rounds is incredible.
Along with these three, the Broncos added three other contributors. Bolden was a very solid special teams player for the Broncos, and for being a fourth-round pick that is just fine.
Ronnie Hillman has been a regular contributor out of the backfield, primarily being the second back. Some people felt like he could have done more, but just never got over the hump of being a full-time starter. Nevertheless, he has had a solid contribution to the team.
The last contributor to this team is Brock Osweiler. Going into the 2015 season it would have been okay to call the selection of Osweiler a bad pick since he had no impact on the team since being drafted. 2015 changed that.