Week Eight of the NFL season is mostly in the books, with only the Broncos-Chiefs matchup left to be played. The Broncos currently sit as the ninth-ranked team in the AFC playoff standings, making Monday’s contest enormously important for Denver.
Ahead of the Broncos are the Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars, each with a combination of four wins and three or four losses. If the Broncos win against Kansas City, they will jump up to seventh place over the Dolphins. They would have ties in record and conference record, and have one common game (the Chargers). This means the tiebreaker would most likely go to strength of victory — the combined winning percentage of the teams they have beaten — which the Broncos would hold a slight advantage of .487 compared to the Dolphins .467.
Along with that, the Broncos would be 4-3 and 3-1 in the division, while the Chiefs would fall to 5-3 and 1-2 in the division. This scenario puts them a half-game back against the Chiefs, who have yet to have a bye week, while holding both the first- and second-most important tiebreakers for the division — head-to-head and divisional record.
The Broncos, of course, would have to continue to find ways to win against the 7-1 Philadelphia Eagles and the 6-2 New England Patriots to bolster their record and tiebreakers, as well as hope for a Kansas City loss to the Dallas Cowboys, although that would not be a necessary part of the Broncos moving into the division lead due to tiebreakers held at that point. If these situations fell into place, though, the Broncos would sit at 6-3 and would simply have to keep pace or better with the Chiefs, gaining the division lead in Week 10, with six more weeks to hang on or build a lead before facing the Chiefs again — at home — to close out the regular season.
If things go wrong for the Broncos tonight, though, they could go horrifically wrong for the course of the season. The Broncos would drop to a 3-4 record and 2-2 in the division, handing both the head-to-head and divisional record tiebreakers over to the Chiefs, who would be 6-2 overall and 2-1 in the division. The Broncos would also squander a chance to build some distance between them and the Raiders and Chargers, both of whom lost this weekend.
In the wild-card race, a Broncos’ loss would drop them to 11th place overall, with both the Houston Texans and Cincinnati Bengals holding a conference-record tiebreaker over Denver. The Broncos would then have to face the Eagles and Patriots back-to-back, resulting in a worst-case scenario of the Broncos entering Week 11 with a 3-6 record, practically eliminated from the playoff picture, and potentially in last place in the division.
The Broncos’ schedule would ease up for the next six weeks, only playing one team with a record over .500 (Miami), before facing off against the Chiefs for the season finale. All seven games would be must-win in order for the Broncos to have a chance to make the playoffs as a wild card, however, the division may be far out of reach.
The next three games for the Broncos weigh greatly on their chances of making the playoffs, but if Denver wants to have a solid chance moving forward, they have to start with a win in Kansas City tonight.
