This, is the game of the year in the West. If Vegas wins, they lock up the division crown. If Colorado wins, they control their own destiny to take the division title with a pair of home wins against Los Angeles later this week.
Let’s take a look at this matchup, the final meeting between Colorado and Vegas this regular season, from a betting perspective in our Avalanche vs. Golden Knights betting preview with odds, picks and predictions.
Making things even more interesting is these are arguably the two best teams in hockey. They rank No. 1 and No. 2 in the league in goal differential; No. 1 and No. 3 in goals scored per game; both are in the top five in goals allowed per game; they both have top 10 penalty kills. The only disparity is Colorado also has a top 10 power play, while Vegas has been below average with the man advantage, ranking 21st in the NHL.
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Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Betting Pick (May 10, 2021)
There is so much information to share about these two teams. Lets start in goal. Philipp Grubauer has been a Vezina Trophy candidate all season for the Avalanche and will be in goal tonight for Colorado, sporting a 2.03 goals against average (GAA) and a .919 save percentage (SV%). On the other side, Vegas has a two-headed monster. Marc-Andre Fleury has seen most of the action for the Golden Knights and has been right there with Grubauer all year (2.04 GAA, .927 SV%), but Robin Lehner has also been good for the Knights with a 2.30 GAA and a .913 SV%. Fleury is the likely starter, but it was not yet known at the time of this writing.
Offensively, both these teams bring it throughout the lineup. Mikko Rantanen has three goals in his last five games. Meanwhile, Andre Burakowsky has been a spark offensively (5-3-8) in that same span for Colorado with Nathan MacKinnon nursing a lower-body injury.
MacKinnon’s status ins uncertain for this game.
For Vegas, Reilly Smith has five goals and seven points in his last five games, while William Karlsson leads the Golden Knights in assists with four in the same time frame.
Vegas is also 4-3 in the series so far this season against the Avalanche with one win coming in overtime. Four of the seven games have been one-goal affairs and most have been low-scoring. Five of the seven games featured five goals or fewer. One had six total goals and the last meeting, two weeks ago, was the only game to reach seven total goals in a 5-2 Vegas win.
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Odds
Here are the lines for Avalanche vs.Golden Knights at DraftKings Sportsbook:
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5 +235), Golden Knights (+1.5 -286)
Moneyline: Avalanche (-112); Golden Knights (-105)
Over/Under: Over 6 (+102)/Under 6 (-122)
Bets We Like With an Avalanche Win
Avalanche to win AND UNDER 6.5 total goals (+215, DraftKings)
Colorado wants home ice advantage throughout the playoffs. With two games remaining, the Avs are 20-4-2 at Ball Arena this season. The ability to have the playoffs go through there for an entire postseason run would be very meaningful to the best home team in the league. They’re going to have to win this game against a Vegas team that has won seven straight at home as well 14 of 16 its last 16 at home overall. It’s a tall task, but if Colorado wants to get back to the top of the mountain, this is the steep hill they have to climb.
We already mentioned the low scoring between these two teams. So, if you bump the over/under number up a half puck, you’ll get great odds to combine an under cover with a Colorado win.
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Bets We Like With a Golden Knights Win
Golden Knights to win AND UNDER 6.5 total goals(+210, DraftKings)
We know this is going to seem like a cop out. But it’s not. There’s no doubt this game can go either way. That’s why the money line is all but offering an even money bet in this game. It’s not like Vegas doesn’t want to win the division. It sure does. So, they’ll have their “A game” ready to rock as well. The only constant is the over/under number. Bump it to 6.5 and you get great odds on that parlay. We’ll give you a pick in the game, but if you don’t like ours, these are two examples of how you can pick the game on your own and get better value than what the money line is offering.
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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome
Mikko Rantanen OVER 0.5 points (-114, FanDuel)
If MacKinnon can’t go, the Colorado offense runs through Rantanen. Heck, even with MacKinnon, the offense makes many visits to Rantanen’s neighborhood. Rantanen is one of only five NHL players with 30 goals this season, and he’s tied for ninth overall in the league in points. In such a big game, you have to expect the big players to make their presence known. This seems like an easy bet, even if it’s just average value on the odds.
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Prediction
This has the makings of a regular season classic. You can feel the tension hours before the start time.
Both teams will be pushing hard for the win. We love the under because in a close game in the third period, both teams might be interested in at least one point and overtime. While the Avalanche want to be No. 1, the reality is they’re only one point ahead of third-place Minnesota and risk losing home ice advantage in the first round with a regulation loss to Vegas. That’s why this is a low-scoring, slow it down, defense and goaltending type of game. We can see it going to extra time, but we’ll give Colorado the slightest of edges in a 3-2 game.