Broncos to cry Wolfe?
While the Patriots, Steelers, Titans and Jaguars are busy prepping for the Divisional Round of the AFC Playoffs, general manager John Elway and the Denver Broncos are dissecting their roster and payroll trying to determine what moves they can make to get them back into championship contention.
With a roster chock full of former All-Pros, Pro Bowlers and Super Bowl champions, Denver has some tough decisions to make in 2018 if it is going to free up enough cap space to purse a marquee free agent quarterback, as many suspect they will.
The massive contracts of wide receiver Demaryius Thomas ($12.03 million cap hit in 2018) and Aqib Talib ($12 million cap) seem like two of the most logical places to cut dollars. Considering the advancing age of both Thomas (turned 30 in December) and Talib (turns 32 in February), Denver might be wise to move on sooner than later.
However, Brent Sobleski of Bleacher Report believes that Denver’s most pressing big-money contract decision is with defensive end Derek Wolfe. He explains as part of his “Deal or No Deal: Negotiating Every Team’s Priciest Contract Decision” column…
DE Derek Wolfe
The Denver Broncos’ Derek Wolfe signed a four-year, $36.7 million contract extension prior to the 2016 NFL draft. He could be released less than two years later due to a neck injury and a significant cap hit.
Wolfe battled multiple injuries throughout the 2017 campaign, but continued numbness in his right arm eventually forced him onto injured reserve after 11 games. The defensive lineman has spinal stenosis.
“We get [the neck] fixed up, and I won’t have to deal with it ever again,” Wolfe said, per ABC 7 Denver’s Troy E. Renck. “I did a lot of neck strengthening [after a neck injury in 2013]. And sometimes that closes the holes where the nerves come out. I have to make sure to keep those clear and keep pressure off the neck.”
While Wolfe expects a full recovery, the Broncos may not be willing to retain his $10.8 million cap hit considering his history. The team saves $7 million by releasing the defensive end.
No Deal
A $7 million savings would certainly help the Broncos should they need the $30-plus million it could take to pursue potential free agent Kirk Cousins (who could still be franchise tagged by Washington). It could take a restructure or release of Thomas, and the release of both Talib and Wolfe to make up that ground.
That would be a major risk, however. Although Wolfe has never earned Pro Bowl honors as a 3-4 defensive end, he is Denver’s most versatile interior defender. Paired with nose tackle Domata Peko and defensive end Shelby Harris, Wolfe helped return the Broncos’ run defense to elite status in 2017 after a down year in 2016.
That unit took a huge step backwards after the departure of Malik Jackson and Sylvester Williams, going from the No. 3 rush defense in 2015 to the No. 28 unit against the run in 2016. Following a return to the top 5 in 2017, John Elway would be be taking a big risk parting ways with Wolfe next season unless it’s clear his health is questionable.
Yes, Wolfe has a history of injury with a very precarious body part — the neck — but if he’s fully recovered as he expects to be, the Broncos would be wise to keep one of the emotional and physical leaders of the defense.
The Alex Smith option?
Much of the speculation about Denver’s future quarterback surrounds Cousins, as mentioned earlier, however an intriguing option could exist with Kansas City’s Alex Smith.
Sobleski explains why Smith is KC’s big-money “Deal or No Deal” decision…
QB Alex Smith
The Kansas City Chiefs are prepared for life without quarterback Alex Smith. Financially, it makes sense to move on from the veteran signal-caller even though he’s in the midst of his best professional season.
Smith set new career highs with 4,042 passing yards, 26 touchdowns and an average of 8.00 yards per attempt. The Chiefs quarterback also led the NFL with 17 completions on passes thrown at least 30 yards downfield this season, per ESPN Stats & Info.
His future will likely be determined by how well he performs in the playoffs, because everything else points toward his eventual departure.
The Chiefs are $3 million over the projected 2018 salary cap, while Smith holds a $20.6 million cap hit next season. Kansas City can save $17 million with his release. Finding a trade partner would be even more beneficial to move the entire contract while adding a draft asset.
Plus, Patrick Mahomes has superior arm talent and playmaking ability outside of structure. He’s the future after the Chiefs traded up and used the 10th overall pick to select him.
No Deal
Smith (and Chiefs head coach Andy Reid) choked away a 21-3 halftime lead in the Wild Card round against Tennessee, failing to score a single point in the second half in KC, so it seems more than possible that the Chiefs choose to turn the page after another disappointing playoff performance.
But would they ever trade Smith to a division rival? Unlikely.
It was clear in 2017 that even a moderately competent quarterback would have been enough to keep the Broncos in contention in the AFC West, so it would be foolish for Kansas City to drop Smith directly into Denver’s lap.
Denver’s best hope in this scenario is that Kansas City can’t find a trade partner and the Chiefs are forced to release Smith to the open market.
Sobleski believes Minnesota will be sticking with Case Keenum and Drew Brees will return to New Orleans. Beyond those two, Smith and Cousins, the market thins out. Eli Manning is a coin flip to return to New York, but his skills have greatly diminished. Tyrod Taylor is likely out in Buffalo, but his play has been middle-of-the-road at best throughout his career.
Smith ended the 2017 regular season with the best passer rating in the NFL and career numbers as Sobleski points out. He could be come a viable option for the Broncos if the Chiefs are disappointed enough with their playoff flop and no other team is willing to participate in a trade, but Denver may not be able to wait long enough for Kansas City to cut him.
Smith’s price tag in a trade scenario would be $20.6 million, and he could command more if released. If the Broncos have not yet resolved the QB situation at the time he hits the market, they may have a tough choice to make with Wolfe.
