The Broncos and Steelers will kick it off on Sunday afternoon at Heinz Field. Denver is coming off a tough loss on Monday night, though Colorado bettors that took the points cashed a win. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh looks to ride the momentum of its emphatic season-opening victory. Let’s take a look at the line for Broncos-Steelers as of September 29, 2020 1:36 PM.
The Broncos-Steelers line for Week 2 is currently set with the Steelers a 7.5-point favorite on the spread and an over-under of 41.5. The Steelers are -360 on the moneyline, which implies a 78.3% win probability.
Broncos vs. Steelers Odds
Here are the current odds, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
|Broncos||+7.5 (-110)||+300||O 41.5|
|Steelers||-7.5 (-110)||-360||U 41.5|
The Broncos are a 7.5-point underdog against the Steelers, who opened at -6.5 with FanDuel Sportsbook on late Monday night. Since then, the spread has pushed up a tick and has past the key number of -7.
These two teams came away from their Week 1 Monday night openers with two very different vibes. Questionable clock management and a late Stephen Gostkowski field goal paired to sink the Broncos in what was just their third homer opener loss dating back to the turn of the century. Meawhile, Pittsburgh overcame a sluggish start to win by double-digits in what was a simply dominant defensive display.
Despite the noticeable absence of raucous crowds packing NFL stadiums in the early going, oddsmakers are still awarding roughly three points of betting value to home teams. While there is legitimate hope the Broncos can speed up the timeline and push for a postseason berth in 2020, the Steelers, typically, are a public darling and are widely thought to be a contender in the AFC this season. Therefore, it’s not hard to see why this spread isn’t a tight one.
The Broncos are +300 on the moneyline. The Steelers are priced at -360.
We think it’s always worth a look to take a look at “implied win probability” of the moneyline-essentially meaning what is the win percentage implied by these Broncos-Steelers odds?
At -360, the Steelers have an implied win probability of 78.3%. Meanwhile, at +300, the Giants are at 25%.
Of course, those two figures don’t add up to a perfect 100%. That’s because the difference is the sportsbook hold (juice). If there is 50-50 action on both sides (which is rarely the case), they would take a toughly 5% cut regardless of who wins.
The over-under for the Broncos and Steelers is set at 41.5. If the total holds, this game would represent the second-lowest total of the week. It is most certainly not difficult to see why.
The Broncos are coming off a stellar defensive effort in which they surrendered just 16 points to a balanced Tennessee offense. Meanwhile, the Steelers limited Giants star Saquon Barkley to just 6 yards on 15 carries a week ago and consistently applied pressure on quarterback Daniel Jones. Pittsburgh entered the season with what’s believed to be an elite defense, and it certainly looked the part in Week 1.
Offensively, Melvin Gordon had a decent night and Drew Lock completed 66% of his passes with a touchdown and no interceptions, but the Broncos missed big pop plays. After a slow start, Pittsburgh generated 26 points of offense behind a solid run game that averaged 4.7 yards per attempt.
After the Broncos vs. Steelers odds opened with a total as high as 43 on Monday night, early bettors hit the under, pushing it down to 41.5 points at the time of this post.
Where Is The Money Going?
The money is slightly tilted toward the Steelers. Currently, 60% of all spread bets and 57% of the spread money backs Pittsburgh.
Meanwhile, in terms of the total, the percentage bettors (57%) sides with the over, but an overwhelming 87% of the money is on the under. This means big bettors saw the early number and pushed it down. It will be interesting to see if that trend continues or if things will even out by kickoff.
Broncos vs. Steelers Props For Week 2
Player props aren’t yet available. However, they will be released near the end of the week leading up to kickoff. Sites such as FOX Bet typically excel in terms of offering expansive market of prop bets. We’ll update this post when they become available.