The 3 Best Eagles vs. Broncos Player Props for NFL Week 10

eagles broncos player props
PHOTO CREDIT: CRAIG DUDEK

The Philadelphia Eagles and Denver Broncos will meet at Mile High Stadium Sunday afternoon, and the two teams appear headed in different directions. The Eagles have lost three of their last four, while the Broncos have won two straight to climb over .500 and re-enter the AFC playoff hunt. Given the line on the game, this could be a closely contested affair.

Let’s take a look at our three best Eagles vs. Broncos player props picks, complete with full matchup analysis.

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Best Eagles vs. Broncos Player Props Picks

Noah Fant Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Noah Fant leads the Denver Broncos in receptions per game (4.6) and is second to only Courtland Sutton in targets per game (6.6). Despite missing last week’s contest on the COVID-19 list, Fant has the second most receiving touchdowns with three. In games in which the Iowa product has played, other Broncos tight ends have just 18 total catches, exemplifying Fant’s position as the primary tight end target.

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His three touchdowns this season have come against Las Vegas, Jacksonville, and Baltimore, each of which allows a lower passing touchdown percentage than Philadelphia. The Eagles are allowing 1.8 touchdowns per game through the air, which places it firmly in the lower half of the league. Interestingly, half the receiving scores yielded by the Eagles have gone to tight ends.

Philadelphia has allowed opposing tight ends to rack up eight touchdowns so far this season, including at least one in six of the team’s last seven games. The Chargers had two tight ends pull down scores last week, in fact.

Opposing tight ends are averaging over seven catches and 66 yards per game against the Eagles. Over the last four games, those numbers have spiked to nine catches and 87.5 yards per game. Fant is one of the league’s most dangerous tight ends and should find opportunities to score against a subpar Philadelphia linebacking group and beaten up secondary.

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Dallas Goedert Under 45.5 Receiving Yards

By contrast, the Broncos defend the tight end position far better. In fact, not a single tight end has scored against Denver this season, and no tight end has been targeted more than six times or caught more than five balls through nine games.

Moreover, the only three tight ends to top 42 yards receiving against this defense have been Mark Andrews, Darren Waller, and Dalton Schultz. Those three guys are ranked second, fifth, and seventh among NFL tight ends in receiving yards and second, fifth, and sixth, respectively, in catches. Dallas Goedert ranks just eighth and 15th in those respective categories.

Meanwhile, he is averaging just 3.4 catches and 50 receiving yards per game and now lacks the protection that Zach Ertz provided him. While he should receive increased attention from quarterback Jalen Hurts, he will also received increased attention from opposing defense.  Goedert now draws opponents’ best cover options and often sees safety help as the team’s second leading receiver.

While his targets and receiving yards per game have increased since Ertz was traded, it has not been by a significant amount. He has caught just three passes in two of the three games since the trade and managed only 43 yards last week against the Chargers. Even with the league’s No. 3 yards per catch average amongst tight ends (14.9), three catches here still wouldn’t get Goedert over this prop’s requirement.

And three catches or fewer is certainly a possibility against Denver, as top tight end options have pulled down just two catches or fewer in six games. In fact, No. 1 tight end options are averaging just 2.8 catches, 3.7 targets, and 32.4 receiving yards per game. Four of those opposing tight ends did not have a single catch against the Broncos that trumped Goedert’s average yards per catch number. What’s more, no tight end has a reception of over 34 yards against Denver in 2021.

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Javonte Williams Over 48.5 Rushing Yards

The Broncos have split their running back duties pretty evenly this season between Melvin Gordon III and Javonte Williams, but we like Williams to shine against the Eagles this week. Philadelphia has been stingy with big plays against its run defense, only allowing five opposing backs to tally runs of 15 yards or longer. Williams has proven the ability to break some big runs early in his rookie season, totaling five such explosive plays of 20 yards or longer. By comparison, Melvin Gordon III has just one, which came all the way back in Week 1.

Williams and Gordon have been within four rushes of each other in all but one game so far this season, and the rookie has rushed it 11 or more times in more than half of his appearances. He averages nearly five yards per carry, compared to Gordon’s 4.4 yards per tote, and has reached 45 yards on the ground in six of his nine games.

Notably, he had his first 100-yard effort as a professional last week when he tallied 111 yards on 17 carries in a win over Dallas.

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Normally, we would be leery of playing an over prop on a guy who just saw a season high in rushes his last time out, but, ironically, so did Gordon. The 28-year-old certainly does not have a rookie’s legs and it’s hard to imagine Denver pounding him with late rushing attempts after carrying the rock 21 times last week.

Note: Be sure to check out this Eagles-Broncos betting preview.

After rushing it 18 times back in Week 4, Gordon saw only nine rushes in each of Denver’s next two games. In fact, Gordon has not had back-to-back games with 20 or more attempts in over two years.

Expect the rookie, Williams, who averages 51.8 yards per game on the ground, to see the bulk of the rushing duties late in this one. This prop’s number should be a reasonable ask.

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