How inclined are you to watch the NBA Draft Lottery tonight?
Airing at 6:30 (MST) on ESPN, tonight’s ping-pong ball show marks the 31st time the NBA has implemented a lottery system for its draft. Beginning in 1985, the league opted to employ this strategy, rather than awarding the team that possessed the league’s worst record with the first pick. Since 1990, the Association has used a “weighted” lottery system, allowing the team with the worst record the best chance (without guarantee, of course) at the top pick.
There are two basic reasons the NBA uses the lottery system instead of a traditional system where the worst record automatically receives the first draft choice: First, so bad teams don’t tank it in an effort to secure the No. 1 pick; second, so there’s some built in drama leading into the draft – call it “programming.”
Ironically, there are two basic truths about the NBA and its lottery: First, teams still tank it; and second, if you’re sitting in front of your television in Denver, Colo., there’s about a 4.8 percent chance you’ll enjoy the lottery show, which happens to be the same percentage the Nuggets have of landing the No. 1 pick.
And this isn’t just a homer’s lament, although it would be nice – for once – if the Nuggets would improve their draft slotting through the lottery. As luck would have it (or not), Denver has never “overachieved” in the lottery; in other words, the franchise has never drafted better than what it would have if the order were based on record. In fact, in the 11 years the Nuggets have been a part of the lottery, their position has gotten worse seven times.
The problem, regardless of whether or not we’ll tune in because the Nuggets have had bad luck in the lottery, is that too many teams – like ours, for example – are still tanking it. Sure, there’s no race to guaranteed first, second, third or even fourth pick, but there’s a handful of teams trying to improve their odds. With the lottery, everyone is in play for that No. 1 selection.
Sort of.
With only 16 wins, the Timberwolves only have a one-in-four chance of getting the first pick. The Knicks and Sixers, with 17 and 18 wins, respectively, own a 19.9 and 16.6 percent chance. Still, every team not battling for a final playoff spot now has incentive to lose games.
Going back to the Nuggets example, what good was it for Denver fans to watch “stars” get benched on back-to-back nights throughout the last third of the season? When interim head coach Melvin Hunt unexpectedly began to win, the franchise put on the brakes and started “resting” key players. Resting for what?
For piling up losses, I suppose. Still, a 4.8 percent shot at No. 1? That’s not worth it. A 15 percent shot at a top-three pick (which is how it tallies up for the Nuggets tonight)? More worth it, but still long odds. If we somehow knew that there was only a 15 percent of today being a good day, most of us would prefer to stay in bed.
But what’s the solution?
The desire to curb tanking is on point. On the flip side, perhaps the Nuggets would have played harder – or better, or “more entertainingly” – if they knew the Knicks, Sixers and T’Wolves were really the only ones that had a shot at a top-three pick. Then again, and considering that most experts believe this year’s rookie class to be fairly rich with talent, there still might be motivation to lose in hopes of getting a top-five pick. With just nine wins separating the Nuggets, who had the NBA’s seventh-worst record, and Lakers, who had the fourth, there still might have been some tanking.
What if the NBA explored some form of a reality show? Something along the lines of American Idol, The Voice or even The Bachelor (I mean, I’ve heard people like that show)? Here’s the quick Hollywood pitch:
Assemble a panel of NBA “experts” – former players, coaches and analysts. Maybe throw in a few super fans – maybe one from each city. Consider some kind of a weekly, public online vote. Maybe throw in Mark Cuban or Donald Trump just for good measure.
During the last two months of the NBA season, film a series of weekly “meetings.” In these meetings, the panel would gather to discuss the worst team in the league, and by show’s end, a new “worst” rankings would be established. But instead of just looking at record, the panel would examine and consider such factors as injuries, schedule and whether or not a team is tanking.
If the panel thinks a team looks like it’s tanking, let the drama ensue. Perhaps a conference call is arranged between members of the panel and the accused team’s GM.
“Mr. Connelly, can you explain the rationale behind giving Mr. Gallinari the night off?”
From there, the panel could vote on whether or not teams are operating in a legitimate fashion, or simply playing for the lottery.
Hold the episodes until the season is over, and then start releasing them during the playoffs. Run them non-stop on NBATV anytime games aren’t going on, building drama of who will get the first pick heading into June. The format could also be a better package in which to market the new draft class (college basketball certainly doesn’t do that any more, for crying out loud).
The show would accomplish two things: First, it might actually prevent teams from tanking, as they’d be penalized for doing so; second, it might actually be a program worth watching.
Unlike the draft lottery show that will air tonight.
We’ll sit there, building up hope – the kind of hope if you have a stack of chips on “green 00” – and then inevitably be disappointed. And then we’ll gripe for two weeks. And then we’ll gripe for two weeks after that about the foreign fella the Nuggets took at No. 9.
At one point, the lottery was a unique idea and held a legitimate purpose. But that’s not true today.
It’s time for a change.
