The Three Best NFL Week 11 Upset Picks ATS

nfl week 11 upset picks ats
PHOTO CREDIT: CRAIG DUDEK

NFL underdogs have been barking loudly over the last three weeks. An underdog moneyline bettor wagering $100 on every game for Weeks 8-10 would be up over $2,800 in that span. In the spirit of those tremendous returns, we scoured the Week 11 Sunday card and identified three underdogs that we believe should cover — and perhaps even win outright.

Let’s take a look at our three favorite NFL Week 11 upset picks, backed with complete betting analysis and ATS predictions.

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NFL Week 11 Upset Picks

Football Team vs. Panthers

This game had to be circled before the season began for Ron Rivera and his Washington Football Team. This will be Rivera’s first trip to Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte since being let go by the Panthers in 2019 after nearly nine years as head coach. On top of that is the defeat Washington suffered against Carolina in Week 16 last season in Landover, one for which the Football Team will be looking to exact some revenge.

Washington enters play off an outright double-digit dog victory over Tampa Bay, avenging a home loss to the eventual champions last season. The victory cost them Chase Young, who was lost for the year to an ACL tear, but Washington can claim a 10-4 ATS record in its last 14 games following a SU victory. In fact, WFT is a stellar 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games off an outright underdog win.

Rivera may have an added edge here, too, as it appears that Cam Newton will get the start for Carolina. No coach knows Newton better than Rivera, and you have to believe his old mentor will have a solid plan in place to defend him, especially given the limited playbook with which Newton will surely be working.

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Trends to Know

Carolina is off a big upset victory of its own, knocking off the Cardinals, 34-10, a week ago. However, that was just the team’s second win and cover since starting the season 3-0. The Panthers have covered just four of their last 17 home games and just three of their last 10 as favorites. When listed as home favorites, they are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven tries. They have also dropped six straight home games ATS against opponents with losing road records.

The Panthers struggle against bad teams in general. They have covered just one of their last five against teams with losing records and have dropped five straight cover opportunities as home favorites of more than one point against teams with losing records. Carolina is also just 6-19 ATS in their last 25 when an opponent’s win percentage dips to .400 or below.

Carolina’s defense is solid, one of the league’s best. But, if the unit has a weakness, it is against the run. This just so happens to be Washington’s offensive strength. Conversely, despite a defense that’s 27th in yards allowed, Washington is sixth best against the run, which is Carolina’s bread and butter, especially with Newton back in the fold.

Football Team vs. Panthers Pick

The underdog in this head-to-head is 13-3 ATS all-time and Washington has covered five of its last seven visits to Charlotte. Look for the Football Team to replicate its 2019 trip when it won 29-21 as double-digit dogs.

Our Pick: Washington +3.5

Colts vs. Bills

Here we go again with another critical game for the Colts against an elite opponent. They slipped up last time they had a big chance like this, blowing an early lead before falling to Tennessee in overtime. Now, the AFC South race is a distant memory and Indy has to travel to Buffalo in search of the win that finally gets this team over .500. However, we think the Colts have the chops to compete here.

Indianapolis currently sits 10th in the AFC standings at 5-5, but are a mere ½ game behind the seventh and final playoff spot. Being on the back end of a crowded playoff picture like that makes a win here crucial for Frank Reich’s squad. Luckily, they catch Buffalo having to juggle two games in five days’ time, as the Bills have a Thanksgiving night game in New Orleans.

Could the Bills take their collective foot off the brake late in this one, allowing Indy to cruise to a win or steal a backdoor cover?

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When you look back at Buffalo’s schedule thus far, its 6-3 record and NFL-best defense start to look a touch overblown. Bills’ opponents average win percentage this season is only .394 and the Bills wins have come against teams with a combined .316 average win percentage. Those six wins came against the Dolphins twice, the Jets, Texans, Washington, and Chiefs. Only the Kansas City has more than three wins in that list.

Indianapolis possesses two attributes that can win almost any football game against any opponent. The defense has generated the second most takeaways per game thus far, trailing only the Bills in this category. Indy also owns the league’s sixth best rushing offense even without the boost of a dual threat quarterback.

Jonathan Taylor and company are running rampant behind a loaded offensive line that is just rounding into health. Buffalo has struggled against quality rushing attacks this season, losing to Tennessee, which leads the NFL in rushing attempts per game, and Jacksonville, which is second in the league in yards per rush.

Trends to Know

Buffalo bounced back from a 9-6 loss at Jacksonville two weeks ago to thrash the Jets last week, a 45-17 win that was bolstered by five takeaways. However, Buffalo has also failed to cover any of its last five as favorites of four or more after scoring 35 or more points prior.

Indianapolis usually rises to the level of quality competition. The Colts narrowly lost, 27-24, to Buffalo on this field in last season’s playoffs in a similarly lined game. Indy has covered 18 of its last 26 against winning teams and nine of its last 13 on the road against teams with winning home records. The Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last five as road dogs, part of an 8-2 ATS run in their last 10 away games overall.

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Bills vs. Colts Pick

Look for them to make it five straight covers following an ATS loss as they give Buffalo all it wants here.

Our Pick: Indianapolis +7

Packers vs. Vikings

While it appears the NFC North Division race is already over, this divisional matchup has immense implications for both teams. Green Bay will be looking to keep its hold on the NFC’s top seed, while Minnesota aims to remain relevant with regards to the playoffs. The Vikings are 4-5, currently sitting eighth in the NFC, a half game behind the final playoff spot. A win here could jump them up the standings, but would at the very least increase the Vikings’ conference win percentage which is already gives them the tiebreaker over the conference’s other 4-5 teams.

Green Bay has not had a ton of continuity the last few weeks with Aaron Rodgers’ COVID stint and now will have to try to win this one without Aaron Jones. The Packers could also get caught in a bit of a look-ahead spot here, as they host the Rams next week, a rematch from last season’s playoffs.

Trends to Know

The Packers blanked the Seahawks last week, but they have covered just two of their last 12 off a double-digit SU non-divisional victory. In fact, they are just 1-11 ATS off a double-digit SU non-divisional win against divisional opponents who were underdogs last time out.

Further, they had just one other shutout in the last decade and followed that up by losing their next game SU and ATS at another divisional opponent, Detroit.

Also of note, U.S. Bank Stadium is no treat to visit for good teams either. Minnesota has covered 14 of its last 19 home games against teams with winning road records. The Vikings have also only dropped six of their last 25 ATS as home dogs. They play well as underdogs in general, in fact, covering 13 of their last 15 in that role.

Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer is 37-23 ATS at home and 31-20 ATS as a dog since taking charge of the team.

Keep in mind that divisional dogs are 20-17 ATS this season and have covered 56 percent of games over the last five seasons, while conference dogs of seven points or fewer are a tremendous 47-26 ATS this season. You should feel good having that bit of information in your back pocket while backing a Vikings team that has given the football away the least times per game in the league. This despite boasting an offense that runs the fifth most plays per game in the NFL and is ranked in the top 10 in the pass and run.

Packers vs. Vikings Pick

Minnesota has the fourth best strength of schedule amongst teams with 4-5 records or better (.530). They face a Green Bay bunch which has seen its eight wins come against teams with an average win percentage of just .438. We think this one will mean more to the Vikings and that the gap between these two is smaller than the public perceives. Take the generous home spot here.

Our Pick: Minnesota +2.5

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