The undefeated Denver Broncos will get their first true test of the season on Sunday when they host the Baltimore Ravens, fresh off their last second win via Justin Tucker’s record-setting right foot. The Broncos’ first three opponents have a combined 0-10 record to begin the season, with two of those teams starting rookie quarterbacks. This will be a whole different ball game against a Ravens bunch which has plans to contend for a Super Bowl this winter. This important AFC contest offers some interesting individual matchups, and we have identified three player prop betting options we believe offer solid value.
Let’s jump into this marquee NFL Week 4 matchup with a look at the best player props picks for Ravens vs. Broncos.
The Top Ravens vs. Broncos Props
Tim Patrick Over 41.5 Receiving Yards
Tim Patrick has gone from an afterthought on this Broncos team to perhaps its most important offensive player. With KJ Hamler and Jerry Jeudy out for the foreseeable future and Courtland Sutton now seeing opponents’ best cover guy, Patrick has become the safe outside option for quarterback Teddy Bridgewater.
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Bridgewater leads the NFL in completion percentage at 76.8% and has yet to throw his first interception of the season. As such, he is going to want to distribute the ball to guys he knows offer sure hands. What better option than Patrick, who has pulled down 12 of his 13 targets on the young season.
All Tim Patrick does is make impressive catch, after impressive catch, after impressive catch. pic.twitter.com/yDxRwdm1Oj
— ThatsGoodSports (@BrandonPerna) September 29, 2021
Patrick has reached at least 37 yards receiving in each of the team’s three games this season, culminating in a team high 98 yards last week on five receptions, tied for the most on the team, as well. He’s been near or above this prop’s number in all three games but has seen his role in the offense increase as the other receivers have dropped off with injury.
Bridgewater and Patrick will be facing the league’s third worst pass defense in this one, as well. And, while Baltimore has had a tough slate thus far and is unlikely to end up near the bottom against the pass, they have proven vulnerable through the air nonetheless, especially against wideouts who aren’t necessarily a team’s first option. Detroit’s Kalif Raymond caught six of 10 passes for 68 yards last week.
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Mecole Hardman (5 of 8 for 55 yards), Byron Pringle (2 of 2 for 63 yards), and Demarcus Robinson (3 of 4 for 46 yards) all eclipsed this prop’s number for the Chiefs against Baltimore in Week 2. Lastly, Bryan Edwards (4 of 5 for 81 yards), Hunter Renfrow (6 of 9 for 70 yards), Zay Jones (2 of 2 for 46 yards), and Henry Ruggs III (2 of 5 for 46 yards) all topped this prop bet’s total in the opening game against the Ravens. It’s hard to imagine Patrick will do less with more balls thrown his way than most of these guys saw.
Javonte Williams Over 40.5 Rushing Yards
Javonte Williams has found himself in a timeshare with Melvin Gordon in the Denver backfield this season. The Broncos’ second-round pick has received 39 rushes this season, compared to 42 for Gordon. After topping this prop’s total in each of the Broncos’ first two games, Williams rushed for just 29 yards on 12 carries in Week 3, watching Gordon gain 60 yards on 18 runs. However, in true Melvin Gordon fashion, he came away from Week 3’s game with a rib injury that limited him in practice this week.
— Justin Groc (@justgroc) September 26, 2021
Williams could find himself the beneficiary of this minor setback for Gordon, as the extra practice reps will increase his confidence in and knowledge of this offense. In the event of a late lead calling for run plays to milk the clock, Denver is surely more likely to use a healthy back than one who is dinged up.
Williams is already averaging 13 carries per game, which would require just 3.2 yards per carry to cash this prop. The Denver back is already averaging 3.5 yards per tote and will face a Baltimore defense that, while quite good against the rush in the early going, is still allowing 3.6 yards per rush on the season. In fact, only four teams in the league allow less than 3.2 yards per carry in 2021.
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Also of note, all three backs that rushed the ball at least 12 times against Baltimore this season (less than Williams’ average) have eclipsed this prop’s number, including both primary running backs for Detroit last week. Javonte Williams should be able to join that group and ease past this number here at home even if splitting carries once again with Gordon.
Mark Andrews Under 4.5 Receptions
Mark Andrews seemed to finally arrive back at what fantasy football owners would call “his normal” last week against the Lions when he caught five of seven targets for 109 yards. Yet, while that yardage number is spectacular, his targets and catches are still not eye-popping at this point in the season. Andrews caught just three of five targets in Week 1 and all five thrown his way in Week 2. That means he has not had a game with more than five catches this season and is averaging less than six targets per outing.
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That’s hardly a ringing endorsement to want to play over this prop bet, so despite the historical optics that might lead you to think five catches is an easy number for a featured tight end to obtain, we, instead, have to favor the under here, even with the hefty price tag. Keep in mind, Baltimore has played a very high-scoring slate thus far, as their games have produced the fourth most total points in the league through three weeks and that included an overtime game.
You shouldn’t expect that same pace of play here against a Denver team whose games have seen the third least total points in the league entering this week.
Mark Andrews was a big-time part of the Raven's success this week. Tune into The Situation Room, where me and Gabe break down what the Ravens did with Andrews to be so successful. https://t.co/M325F6JvuJ pic.twitter.com/xXdGzFe8EI
— Jordan Kough (@RavensSitRoom) September 27, 2021
And, more specifically relevant to this prop, the Broncos have made opposing tight ends completely irrelevant this season. Denver has only allowed seven catches on 12 attempts to tight ends through three games for a grand total of 55 yards. Forget individuals…no team’s entire group of tight ends has had more than three combined catches or five combined targets in a game this season against the Broncos.
Of final note, Andrews failed to reach five catches in any of the teams final three games in 2020, including their two playoff games. He only topped five catches in three of 16 total games last season, in fact, meaning that if you bet this over, your best shot to win is likely a narrow five catch victory and that’s no way to have to watch this one. The far safer play here against this defense is the under.
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