Most Colorado State football fans aren’t nervous about this weekend’s matchup with the University of Texas at San Antonio. They see the Roadrunners as an easy game, a free win to pick up before conference play begins next week.

On the surface, this confidence seems understandable. After all, the Roadrunners are 0-3 this season, having been outscored by a whopping 141-49 in the three defeats. In just their fifth season of existence, the UTSA program doesn’t appear to be ready for primetime quite yet.

But a closer look inside those numbers reveals that Rams fans should be careful about looking too far ahead. When the two teams take to the field on Saturday night at the Alamodome, anything is possible.

Want some evidence? Here are three reasons why CSU fans should be nervous this weekend:

1. The Roadrunners 0-3 record has been amassed against some stiff competition. They’ve played two top-25 teams on the road, hanging touch in the opener at Arizona and then getting blasted last week at Oklahoma State, with a game against Kansas State sandwiched in between. There aren’t a lot of teams in the country that wouldn’t be winless with that early season schedule, including Colorado State.

2. UTSA has been so grossly outscored primarily because they’ve committed nine turnovers that have led to 59 points. Take away that stat and the Roadrunners have played their three top-tier opponents fairly evenly. Based on other important numbers, like first downs (63 to 69) and total offense (1,100 to 1,339), they should be playing closer games.

3. Larry Coker (yes, the same head coach that led Miami to a national championship) has bowl aspirations this season in San Antonio. In order to reach that goal, however, his team can’t afford to go winless in non-conference play; they have to get a victory prior to the start of their C-USA schedule. They see Colorado State as just the perfect opportunity, as the Rams are clearly the weakest team on their September slate.

So don’t sleep on the Roadrunners, Rams fans. A 2-2 start to the season is no sure thing.