It’s been five years since a Colorado Rockies pitcher appeared in an All-Star game. That should change this year, but it probably won’t. The competition is just too stiff, both from outside and within.
After his brilliant one-hit, one-run performance against the Dodgers on Monday, Tyler Chatwood is now 7-4 with a 2.79 ERA in 12 starts. Most impressive is his 5-0 road record to go with a 0.65 ERA away from Coors Field.
Chatwood has been so dominant on the road this year, he actually raised his ERA in what was one of the best outings of his MLB career. In addition to allowing one run and one hit, he struck out five Dodgers and needed just 100 pitches to complete eight innings of work, evenly distributing ground ball and fly ball outs with nine apiece. Yet he saw his ERA jump, up from 0.53 entering the game.
In his first healthy stretch in more than a year-and-half, Chatwood is tied for the team lead and starts (12) and is leading all Rockies starters in wins (seven), innings pitched (77.1) and ERA (2.79). He’s quickly making a case to be an All-Star.
A hurler from the mountain time zone last appeared in the Midsummer Classic in the form of Ubaldo Jimenez in 2010. The hard-throwing righty ended a string of six consecutive seasons that saw a Rockies pitcher named to the National League All-Star roster.
Chatwood isn’t close to matching Jimenez’s phenomenal 2010 effort. Through 12 starts Jimenez was 11-1 with a 0.93 ERA over 87.1 innings. Jimenez had no-hit the Braves in that time, as well as posted an additional five scoreless outings. His 19 wins that season remain a franchise record.
But Chatwood’s numbers are comparable through 12 starts to Colorado’s 2009 pitching All-Star, Jason Marquis. At the same point that season, Marquis was 8-4 (one more win than Chatwood) and his ERA was 3.98 (more than a full point higher) with four more innings pitched.
They also compare closely to what Aaron Cook was doing in 2008 when he earned his only All-Star nomination. Cook was 7-3 with a 3.36 ERA over 83 innings through 12 starts.
Cook and Marquis would both go on to win four more games before the All-Star break, meaning Chatwood would likely have to do at least the same prior to the July 10 break (or at least be on his way when rosters are announced in early July.
The problem for Chatwood is that there are simply so many dominant pitchers in the National League this year, not to mention competition from his own teammates.
With (roughly) 13 roster spots available for pitchers, eight for starters (based on last year’s roster), Chatwood will have to keep racking up the wins and driving down his ERA. There are already six pitchers with more wins (and they boast names like Clayton Kershaw, Jake Arrieta, Stephen Strasburg and Jose Fernandez). Another seven (including Madison Bumgarner, Zack Greinke and Max Scherzer) are tied with Chatwood at seven. Noah Syndergaard and Jonathan Niese (among others) are lucking behind them at six wins.
That’s at least 16 starters vying for eight roster spots. Chatwood will have to be almost perfect in June to rise to the top half of that impressive group.
He will also battle his own teammates. Last year Colorado sent three players to the All-Star Game – Nolan Arenado, DJ LeMahieu and Troy Tulowitzki. Their record through 59 games is identical – 27-32 – so expecting any more than three would be a stretch.
Arenado is a lock and should be the starting third baseman (although fan voting will probably rob him of the honor); he leads the NL in home runs and RBIs and is again the best defensive player at his position in all of baseball. Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon and DJ LeMahieu, all former All-Stars, are hitting above or near .300 and rookie Trevor Story has been on everyone’s radar after a meteoric start to his MLB career. Of that bunch, it’s hard to single out one or two as locks, but all four have a very good case to be invited. Story is currently locked in a voting battle with Addison Russell for the starting shortstop bid.
It’s hard to see Mets and NL manager Ned Yost taking Chatwood if he’s already got two Rockies position players, and even a possible third. And if he’s tasked with picking someone on the bubble like Chatwood, Matt Harvey or Jacob deGrom (both Mets), there’s a good chance he’ll stick with his own guys.
Chatwood is enjoying one of the best seasons we’ve seen from a Rockies pitcher in the better part of a decade, and one that is right in line with previous Rockies All-Star pitchers, but it’s probably not going to be enough to earn him an invite to this year’s midsummer classic. There’s simply too much competition, inside and out.
