Mile High Sports Week 10 NFL Betting Primer

Nov 7, 2021; Arlington, Texas, USA; The Denver Broncos fans celebrate during the second half against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

It’s that time of the week once again! Week 10 of the NFL season is here, which means it’s time to run the board with an NFL betting primer presented by SuperBook Sports! If you are looking for a new sportsbook to bet with in Colorado, look no further than our friends at SuperBook Sports!

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The overall goal of this primer is to paint a picture of the weekend NFL betting slate so you can dive into it with your head on straight. Sports betting is here, and if you are going to bet, you might as well get an edge, right?

Manage your bankroll. Stick to your units. Watch the lines.

I can’t believe we are already in Week 10. I am writing this primer from the world-famous SuperBook at the Westgate in Las Vegas! Let’s go ahead and make some money this week.

Early Slate

Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys: ATL +9, DAL -9, o/u 54.5

What went wrong with the Dallas Cowboys last week? I thought the Broncos were a live team to cover the spread, but I did not expect them to blow out Dallas on the road. Now the Cowboys have an opportunity to get back on track after being humbled last week, and what better opportunity to do so than against Dan Quinn‘s former team in the Atlanta Falcons.  

I had a good read on the Falcons last week, cashing them against the spread versus New Orleans, and now they travel to Dallas as a near double-digit underdog. There have been plenty of questions circulating around the Dallas Cowboys over the last week. Was that loss last week a reflection of who they are? Or just a flash in the pan?  If you don’t know me, I’m a Dallas Cowboys fan, and I’m inclined to believe that last week was a flash in the pan. Mike McCarthy will probably ultimately cost the team, but I like Quinn and Kellen Moore to get this team back on track.  I don’t expect Prescott to play nearly as badly as last week unless there are still some injury concerns lingering. There is plenty of meat on the bone with this slate. I lean towards Dallas here. 

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets: BUF -12, NYJ +12, o/u 47.5

Like the Cowboys, what the hell happened to the Bills last week? Not only did they lose to the Jacksonville Jaguars, but Jacksonville failed to score a single touchdown.

Quarterback Josh Allen has been a little up-and-down these last few weeks, and Buffalo has struggled to find its footing since losing to the Tennessee Titans in Week 7. On the flip side, we have seen the New York Jets look somewhat competitive in light of rookie quarterback Zach Wilson’s injury. Mike White has looked OK as the starter, and the Jets nearly managed to solidify a back door cover last week against Indianapolis. Now, they are the near touchdown dog at home against a division opponent that has struggled in recent weeks. 

At first glance, it is easy to want to hammer the Bills here, considering how high the ceiling is any given week. But I find myself questioning Buffaloes ability to blow a team out at the moment. They can absolutely do it, but the Jets have shown an ability to hang around in games the last two weeks, and who’s to say they can’t do the same this week against a familiar opponent? I think the Bill should absolutely win this game, but I’m not going to be touching them against the spread. If I had to make a play ATS for this one, it would probably be the Jets. 

Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots: CLE +1.5, NE -1.5, o/u 45.5

Last week the Browns-Bengals game was another one we nailed right on the head here in the primer. Now the Browns head to New England for a date with the Patriots. The Patriots are playing their best football of the season right now, riding high after back-to-back wins over the Los Angeles Chargers and Carolina Panthers, with both of those wins coming on the road. So I do think this line is about right. My first thought is to play the Browns here outright, as I believe they are the better team. That said, the status of running back Nick Chubb is up in the air and the Browns have been a bit underwhelming this season. I think last week was actually the first time I’ve backed Cleveland all season, as I think they are the public’s darling child. Everyone wants to see Cleveland win for the most part. 

I’m a big fan of Bill Belichick but think that Kevin Stefanski is one of the best head coaches in the league right now. This is a potential sell high spot on New England. The Browns are the better team across the board here, and while it’s tricky betting against the Pats at home. The Browns need to go in there and get a dub. Give me the Browns. 

Detroit Lions @ Pittsburgh Steelers: DET +8.5, PIT -8.5 o/u 42.5

The resurgence of the Pittsburgh Steelers over the course of the last few weeks has been fantastic to witness and bet on. Now the Steelers get to battle with the Detroit Lions. Pittsburgh has managed to rip off four consecutive wins after suffering a three-game losing streak earlier in the year. At first glance, it is easy to overlook the winless Lions, but they enter this game coming off of bye, which means they are sure to be rested. We have yet to see the Steelers win a game by more than 8.5 points this season. That could come to an end this week, but I’ll be looking at Detroit in this spot. It’s a total sell-high spot on the Steelers as they continue to ride this winning wave. I’m not saying Detroit will win this game, but I like them to keep it within a touchdown or so. We have seen the Lions put up a fight against solid teams and cover in these types of situations. Detroit is 4-4 ATS this season, but the covers came against the Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, and Minnesota Vikings. Too many points here, even though the Steelers are the better team. Lions or pass for me. 

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts: JAX +10, IND -10, o/u 47.5

My primary thought on this game is this is way too many points for a divisional game, especially for the Indianapolis Colts, who have been inconsistent this season. The Colts have feasted on poor play, beating the Miami Dolphins, Houston Texans and New York Jets thoroughly, who are comparable to the Jags. The one “quality” win for the Colts this season game against the 49ers, but the overall quality of the win is dependent on your view of San Fran. If you want to play a trend, then you can take a look at the Colts here. The Jaguars are the exact type of team Indianapolis has feasted against all season. Personally, I am high on the Jaguars even though they are one roller coaster of a ride. Definitely not the sexiest game, honestly, so I’ll probably pass this one. The Colts burned me plenty of times this season, so it would probably be Jacksonville if I had to give a lean. That said, the Colts have been a good bet in this type of spot all season. 

New Orleans Saints @ Tennessee Titans: NO +3, TEN -3, o/u 44.5 

We made some money last week by feeding the Saints, and I am inclined to do it again this week. The Titans have been a thorn in my side this season, and typically I like to sell high on a team like this. But I’m very down on the Saints as a whole this year. It will be either Taysom Hill or Trevor Siemian under center for the Saints, and neither QB scares me for a Titans team playing sound football. 

Tennessee has ripped off five consecutive wins against some of the most talented teams in the NFL. Ever since losing to the New York Jets in Week 4, this team flipped a switch with victories over the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Indianapolis Colts, and most recently, the Los Angeles Rams. Over the course of this five-game winning streak, Tennessee outscored its opponents 160-100. We will see if the injury to Derrick Henry catches up the Titans, but they will need to pass the ball to win this game as the Saints boast the best run defense in the league, allowing an average of 73.8 rushing yards per game.  

The Tennessee defense is respectable and should be able to limit the damage of a depleted New Orleans offense. Sean Payton is typically a good coach to back as an underdog and coming off a loss, but I’m going to lean towards the Titans here. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Football Team: TB -9.5, WFT +9.5 o/u 51.5

We have a rematch of the NFC Wild Card game from last season. Clearly, the Washington defense has regressed from last year, and the Buccaneers continue to look like one of the better teams in the NFC. I don’t have much to say about this game other than I typically don’t fade the goat, and I don’t see myself doing it this week. I always tend to think these lines are inflated involving Tampa Bay, but with no home-field advantage in play and Washington continuing to sputter, I lean towards the defending champs. The total for the Wild Card game last season was in the mid-40s, it is now at 51.5. 

Afternoon Delight 

Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals: CAR +10, AZ -10, o/u 44

Sam Darnold and the Panthers continue to cost me money. Big spread, but it’s Cardinals or pass for me right now. I need to take a step back with the Panthers. 

Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Chargers: MIN +3, LAC -3, o/u 53

Watching and betting the Vikings has been soul-crushing the season. It feels like they have an opportunity to win every single week yet figure out a way to screw it up at some point or another. Now here come the Vikings with another game against a quality opponent. The Chargers got back on track last week against Philadelphia after losing in ugly fashion to the New England Patriots coming off bye. Believe it or not, every team in the AFC West has a chance to win the division at the moment, even the Denver Broncos. Every team in the division has five wins at the moment, so this game will be necessary for Los Angeles if its want to make a run at the title.  I find myself waiting for the breakout performance from Justin Herbert and the Chargers’ offense. So far, Los Angeles’ wins have been quality, but it has yet to truly knock the socks off of anybody. Could that happen this week against Minnesota?

One thing the Vikings do an excellent job of is keeping games close. They have lost all five of their games this season by a combined total of 18 points. Betting on the Vikings has been so painful, but they’ve shown an ability to hang around in these games regardless of the opponent. Part of me really wants to go ahead and play Minnesota here, knowing it’ll probably lose on a missed field goal or some other BS.

I can’t help but think that this could be the breakout game for the Chargers offense. We’ve seen them put up 40-plus this season, so can the defense limit Kirk Cousins? The Vikings are great at moving the ball between the goal lines, but for a team that ranks in the top portion of passing and rushing yards per game, the fact they average only 24.3 points per game is rather disappointing. Coin flip game for me. If I am following trends from the season, I’ll play Minnesota against the spread, but if I’m better with my heart, it’s the Chargers for me.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Denver Broncos: PHI +2.5, DEN -2.5, o/u 45

Let down spot for the Broncos? It’s so strange just a couple of weeks ago we were talking about how everybody in the organization needs to be fired. Now after back-to-back wins, the Broncos find themselves in the thick of it in the AFC West. Are the Broncos going to make noise this season? Probably not, but right now, they are in the driver’s seat to do so. So far, they are a perfect 3-0 against the NFC East and will look to finish the division sweep this week when the Eagles come to town.  Clearly, there is still some driving determination was in the locker room, which was undoubtedly a question a few weeks ago. The Eagles have lost three of their last four games, with the lone win being against the Detroit Lions two weeks ago. Their Week 1 victory over the Atlanta Falcons is looking a bit hollow, and they managed to squeak out a dub a few weeks ago against Carolina. 

The Eagles and Broncos were both flashes in the pan to start the year, but the Broncos have shown more resiliency as the season has progressed. The Eagles are just no good. The spread is about right, and so long as it doesn’t balloon to over a field goal, I’ll take a chance and play the Broncos here. I don’t have much trust in Denver as a favorite, and it’s a big letdown spot after the victory over the Cowboys last week, but the Eagles have plenty of flaws and will be coming to altitude to face a red hot team that appears to have some sort of confidence. The spread is manageable and Teddy Bridgewater looked sharp last week. If the Broncos continue to run the ball and balance out the offense with both backs, I think they should be able to win this and cover.

Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers: SEA +3, GB -3, o/u 49.5 

It seems like Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers will both return to the field this weekend to clash with each other. I understand a lot of people are feeling some type of way towards Rodgers at the moment, but let’s not forget that this guy is one of the most impactful quarterbacks the league has ever seen. If he plays last week, Green Bay wins by two-plus scores. On the flip side, we learned that Russell Wilson is the complete heart and soul of the Seattle Seahawks. His return is much needed for a team that has lost three of its last four games. Seattle is coming off a bye, which will undoubtedly bode well for them as they head to Lambeau Field. The status of Rogers is the ultimate deciding factor in this game. It appears he will be good to go, but there is still a chance that he will be unable to play due to some lingering issues with his COVID situation. 

To make things simple, I’ll put it this way: If Rodgers plays, I’m all over Green Bay. Seattle is a sinking ship, and Pete Carroll looks like he kind of has one foot in and one foot out the door. I’ve always been down on the Fugazi Seahawks, and I’m a big Rodgers guy. Perhaps am leaning into much with my heart here, but give me Rodgers and the Packers all day.

Sunday Night Football

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders: KC -2.5, LV +2.5, o/u 51.5

I say it every week, but what the hell is up with the Chiefs? They’ve gone from on top of the world to the middle of the pack. This is a big game for the state of the AFC West division. If Kansas City plans to go on a run and return to their championship-caliber form, now is the time to implement it.  Somehow, someway through all the adversity their face, the Raiders have managed to stay afloat. Clearly, that locker room is tight, which is not currently the case in K.C. There’s an apparent disconnect going on right now. 

The Chiefs are just 2-7 ATS this season. Kansas City has covered the spread in three of the last five head-to-head matchups, although Las Vegas has covered in back-to-back games against the Chiefs. Additionally, the home team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 head-to-head meetings. I’m still waiting for the Chiefs to hit their stride, but I’m inclined to take the home underdog in the spot. Over the course of the season, both of these teams have been relatively even, with a slight edge towards the Raiders. I get the Chiefs’ ceiling is as high as any team, but we have yet to see them take off this season. 

 

Monday Night Football

Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers: LAR -4, SF +4, o/u 49

Word just came down that Odell Beckham Jr. is planning to sign with the Los Angeles Rams. I’ll keep this one short sweet, the Rams were my Super Bowl pick before the year, and they still are my choice despite their lousy loss last week. The rich get richer. They add Von and now OBJ. This team has everything you could ask for. 

Last week I went against my gut and played the fraudy 9ers ATS against a depleted Cardinals team. But, of course, it came back to bite me in the ass. San Fran is one of the worst teams ATS this season, and I will not be touching them against the Rammies. 

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