Mile High Sports Week 12 NFL Betting Primer

It’s that time of the week once again! Week 12 of the NFL season is here, which means it’s time to run the board with an NFL betting primer presented by SuperBook Sports! If you are looking for a new sportsbook to bet with in Colorado, look no further than our friends at SuperBook Sports!

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The overall goal of this primer is to paint a picture of the weekend NFL betting slate so you can dive into it with your head on straight. Sports betting is here, and if you are going to bet, you might as well get an edge, right?

Morning Slate

Atlanta Falcons @ Jacksonville Jaguars: ATL -2, JAX +2, o/u 46.5 

The first game on the slate and probably the least attractive one. I don’t have any thoughts on this one other than I need the Jaguars to win because I bet my boy Squizzy 100 bucks they would win over four games this year. This is a winnable spot for Jacksonville, but they could quickly get buried if the Falcons’ offense shows up. With that, the Falcons are allowing the second-most points per game at 28.8, so there could be an opportunity for Trevor Lawrence to show out against a suspect Atlanta D. Plenty of better games on the slate. 

Trends:

  • Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their L6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record
  • Under is 13-3 in Falcons L16 games following a double-digit loss at home
  • Under is 5-0 in Jaguars L5 games

Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins: CAR -2.5, MIA +2.5, o/u 42

The Cam Newton homecoming was spoiled last week. Now Carolina heads to Miami for a road game against a Dolphins team that beat the Jets last week. Newton beat the Dolphins last season in Week 1 and lost to them again in Week 15, so there is some familiarity with how the team operates.

Backing the Panthers as a road favorite usually isn’t the best idea, but I’m keen on it here. It’s a short number for a team that has some boom potential, well, more boom potential than their opponent. Carolina is averaging 2 more ppg than the Dolphins, and there’s a stark difference in defense, with Carolina allowing 20.0 ppg, which ranks 2nd in the league compared to Miami, which is allowing 24.5 ppg, which is near the bottom of the leaderboard. If the Panthers’ offense can get going and find some mojo, this is their game all the way. Road favorites are always a bit sketchy, but I think the Dolphins three-game winning streak comes to an end here. 

Trends:

  • Under is 4-0 in Dolphins L4 games overall
  • Under is 7-1 in Panthers L8 games as a road favorite

New York Jets @ Houston Texans: NYJ +2.5, HOU, -2.5, o/u 44.5 

Two teams that aren’t very good. Pick your poison here. That said, the Texans are coming off a pretty impressive victory last week against the Tennessee Titans. The Jets have also beat the Titans this year, so they share a common victory in that sense.

The Jets lost last week to the Miami Dolphins with Joe Flacco under center and now head to Houston for a road game with Zach Wilson expected to return. This line is about right considering the skill level of both of these teams. My initial thought is to lean with Houston here. I’m not too worried about the idea of selling high on them given their victory last week, and I think they should be able to put together a solid performance against this Jets squad. Houston is an entirely different team with Tyrod Taylor running the show, and now that he’s had a few weeks to get reacclimated, he should be able to settle in against this Jets defense. 

I’ll look at the Texans here. 

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants: PHI -3.5, NYG +3.5, o/u 45.5

The only thing that makes me hesitate about firing off the Eagles is that this is a division match-up. Still, the Giants are in a complete state of disarray, and the Eagles, believe it or not, have an outside chance at going on a run with the Cowboys’ recent blunders. As a Cowboys fan, I have seen every team in the NFC East play time and time again.

The Giants just look like a hopeless team, especially on offense. I am not a believer in the Eagles long-term, but I just think that they are the far better team straight up in this match-up in New York. It’s clear that the Giants need to completely overhaul the way they go about their business on the football field, and perhaps they managed to rally together for a win against this division opponent, but I’m not betting on it—Eagles or pass for me. 

Trends:

  • Over is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings in NY
  • Road team is 5-1 ATS in their L6 meetings
  • Dog is 4-1 ATS in their L5 meetings

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals: PIT +4, CIN -4, o/u 45

Are people still riding the Bengals hype train? It was a fun ride earlier in the season, but I’m off it for Week 12. I’ve been backing the Steelers for the majority of the season and intend to do it again here. 

Mike Tomlin on the road against a team that he is historically owned as a more than a field-goal dog? Please give me some of that. Pittsburgh is 16-4-2 ATS in their last 22 meetings in Cincinnati and 21-9-1 ATS vs. the Bengals straight up. Cincinnati has covered the spread in the previous two head-to-head meetings, but I think this line is still a little inflated given the hype around Joe Burrow and the offense. Tomlin came through ATS last week, and the Steelers haven’t tasted victory in 2 weeks. 

I’m just not understanding the line, and I’ll roll with the experience and energy of the Steelers so long as I can get the field goal. Truthfully, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Steelers won this game outright. But for educated betting purposes, I’ll take the points. Pittsburgh is a little banged up on D, but if their stars are available, it’s a no-brainer play for me. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Indianapolis Colts: TB -3, IND +3, o/u 53.5 

One of the marquee games on the Week 12 slate. Last week we backed the Indianapolis Colts in Buffalo against the Bills, and they won in dominant fashion, which is why the line is the way it is. I’ve said all season long in the primer that I believe the Buccaneers are always going to be inflated due to their public perception. But here we find ourselves with Tom Brady and Company as the mere field-goal favorite on the road. 

This season, Jonathan Taylor has been an absolute beast and a big reason why the Colts have ripped off three consecutive wins. Tampa got back to business last week against New York on Monday Night Football, and I think they are in line for a strong performance here.

I like the Colts, but I do think they are due for a little bit of a letdown coming off their best victory of the season. Carson Wentz and the offense played about as good as they have all year, and we’ve seen the Colts lose in these types of spots time and time again. Typically, I like to play the home dog here, but I’m gonna go ahead and ride with the defending champions. Tampa Bay still has one of the highest ceilings of any team in the NFL this season, and I do think that the Colts have been playing their best football over the last three weeks. All good things must come to an end, and I think that after hitting a little bit of a lull in the middle of the year, Tampa Bay is going to start figuring things out and finding their groove leading up to the playoffs. The trends don’t agree tho.  

Here are a couple of trends to paint a picture of the matchup: 

Bucs are 0-4 ATS in their L4 following an ATS win, Bucs are 0-6 ATS in their L6 games as a road favorite. Additionally, the Colts are 4-0 ATS in their L4 as an underdog. 

Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots: TEN +7, NE -7, o/u 43.5 

This is one of the better games on the slate. I can’t help but wonder what this number would have been if the Titans managed to beat Houston last week. Maybe closer to 5.5? Now, obviously, that did not happen, and the Pats will have had extra rest coming into this one, having played on TNF in Week 11.

Still, I think this number is a tad too high for this Patriots team. I know they have looked fantastic recently, but if there’s ever a time to back the Titans, it’s coming off a loss and as a near TD dog. Just two weeks ago, Tennessee was the top dog in the AFC, now they are back in the middle of the pack. That is a product of the lack of a dominant team in the league this season, but the Titans have shown an ability to play solid football, even without running back Derrick Henry available. 

I think the Patriots are a fantastic team and have a chance to make some noise in the playoffs. This game will be an excellent spot to gauge where New England is at. The deciding factor here is the availability of wide receiver A.J. Brown. With Tennessee already down Julio Jones and Derrick Henry, they need Brown to be available to have a shot on this one. To this point, New England has beaten the Jets, Texans, Jets, Chargers, Panthers, Browns and Falcons. A victory over the Titans would add a serious quality win to the mix. 

If Brown plays, I’m taking the points, and I think this could be a scrappy game between two alpha head coaches. 

Trends:

  • Titans are 5-0 ATS in their L5 games as a dog
  • Under is 4-0 in Patriots L4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record

Afternoon Delight 

Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos: LAC -2.5, DEN +2.5, o/u 48

Both of these teams have been a bit underwhelming this season. The Chargers finally got back on track last week by defeating the Pittsburgh Steelers at home, and now head to the Mile High City to take on the hometown Broncos. It’s clear the league has acclimated to the play of Justin Herbert, which is why he has hit a bit of a sophomore slump this year. I’m not surprised the Chargers are the short favorite here, as they probably should be, considering they have a little bit more upside across-the-board compared to the Broncos.

Denver is coming off the bye, although that has not been as significant a factor in betting as it has been in the past years. Both of these teams have been inconsistent this season, and while I want to think the Broncos can put together a strong performance against a division opponent, I’m just not so sure. The leadership under Fangio is still questionable at best, and it’s clear the Broncos are playing for another day.

The Chargers will probably not make much noise down the stretch of the season, but they still have a little bit more to play for here. I expect the Chargers to come to town locked in after their win last week, and I’ll lay the points with the road favorite here. I just think they are the better team. 

Trends:

  • Over is 6-1 in the L7 meetings in Denver
  • Chargers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Denver
  • Underdog is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings

Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers: LAR -1, GB +1, o/u 47

I ended up getting burned with the Packers last week, but now we find ourselves with Green Bay as the home underdog against my preseason Super Bowl pick, the Los Angeles Rams. I’m still confident in the pick, but the volatility in the NFL this season has been insane, so there’s not a clear-cut favorite in either division at this time. Every team is beatable.

I don’t like betting against Rodgers, let alone as an underdog coming off a loss. On the flip, the Rams are coming off the bye and have lost two consecutive games. Von Miller and OBJ have been nonfactors, which oddsmakers have been right about so far. With the Cardinals on a bye, this is a prime chance for the Rams to make up some ground in the division if they can win on the road. 

Still, the Packers are banged up, and Rodgers seems to be hobbled by a toe injury. Will he be at 100%, let alone push himself? Or will he look ahead for the rest of the season? Either way, the Packers have their issues and injuries, and the Rams are healthier across the board. Additionally, the Rams have had time to reset with a week of rest and two consecutive losses. It’ll be interesting to see how they come out, and in a pick em game I’ll look to the Rams here. 

Trends:

  • Rams are 0-7 ATS in their L7 meetings
  • Favorite is 10-1 ATS in their L11 meetings

Minnesota Vikings @ San Francisco 49ers: MIN +3, SF -3, o/u 48.5 

Congratulations to the Vikings for finally getting on the right side of a coin flip game last week. Now let’s see if they can carry over that momentum into San Francisco against the 49ers. That victory last week helped keep the Vikings’ season alive, as they are still rocking on playoff relevancy. San Francisco is also playing solid football, having won two games in a row.

With that, oddsmakers view this as two evenly matched opponents, with the slight edge going toward San Francisco being they are the home team. However, I don’t put much stock into this as the 49ers have one of the worst home-field advantages is in the league since moving to Levi Stadium. San Francisco has actually lost nearly 10 games more than they have one in their home stadium since moving there a handful of years ago. 

I call them the fraudy9ers for a reason, and in this game, I’m going to back the Viking’s momentum. This could very well come back to bite me in the ass, as the Vikings have been a letdown team time and time again this season, but perhaps that victory last week is enough to inject some momentum into the team. I’ll go with Minnesota. 

Trends:

  • Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their L4 road games.
  • Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their L6 games as a dog

Sunday Night Football

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens: CLE +3.5, BAL -3.5, o/u 47

Baker Mayfield is not good, and the Browns are not the team everyone hyped them up to be this season. Lamar Jackson should be good to go for this one, and with this game in Baltimore, the Ravens are the only play here for me. Perhaps I’m holding a grudge against the Browns, but I’m really not a believer in Baker Mayfield at this point in time. Yes, he tends to play his best football when his back is against the wall, but the Ravens also have something to prove. 

Baltimore managed to get the win on the road last week in Chicago with a backup quarterback, but if Jackson is back under center, it will be his first game since that disgusting performance against the Dolphins. A win and strong showing would knock down the Browns and solidify the Ravens’ position as the favorite in the division in my eyes. With the Steelers and Bengals set to class this week as well, a Baltimore win here can do a lot for their playoff aspirations this season. 

Trends:

  • Road team is 4-1 ATS in their L5 meetings
  • Browns are 3-8 ATS in their L11 meetings
  • Favorite is 7-3 ATS in their L10 meetings
  • Under is 7-3 in the L10 meetings in Baltimore

Monday Night Football

Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Football Team: PK, o/u 47 

We haven’t seen too many Pick’ em games this season. I’ll have more thoughts on this one as we get closer to Monday, but my initial thought with these types of games is to go ahead and play the team with a better quarterback. Washington had a good performance last week in Carolina, and the Seahawks looked horrendous last week against a backup quarterback with the Cardinals.

Of all the games on the Week 12 slate this is one of the least attractive matchups. 

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That’s it for the primer! Good luck and happy betting… don’t forget to get your $500 dollar-for-dollar deposit bonus when you signup with SuperBook Sports!

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