It’s that time of the week once again! Week 13 of the NFL season is here, which means it’s time to run the board with an NFL betting primer presented by SuperBook Sports! If you are looking for a new sportsbook to bet with in Colorado, look no further than our friends at SuperBook Sports!
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The overall goal of this primer is to paint a picture of the weekend NFL betting slate so you can dive into it with your head on straight. Sports betting is here, and if you are going to bet, you might as well get an edge, right?
Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears: AZ -7.5, CHI +7.5, o/u 44
The Cardinals have yet to lose on the road this season and now they head to Chicago laying 7.5 points coming off the bye. The Cardianls are a perfect 6-0 on the road this season, with all six wins being by at least 10 points.
The Cardinals defense is stout, allowing just over 18 points per game this season and the Bears are averaging just 16.3 points per game, the fourth lowest mark in the NFL ahead of only the Texans, Jaguars and Lions. The biggest thing here is the health of the Cardinals. Arizona is expected to welcome back Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins to the mix after both player missed three games due to injury. Despite that, the Cardinals managed to win two of the three games. The Bears are uninspiring across the baord, and the only reason their losing streak ended is because they had a crash course with the Lions. I’ll lean towards the team with the best record in the NFL.
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans: IND -10, HOU +10, o/u 45.5
The Colts are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games in Houston. After a disappointing loss last week to the Bucs, the Colts need to get up for this game. The public has loaded up on the Colts here, so if yopu want to fade that noise feel free. That said, the road team is 11-3-2 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
I like me some Tyrod Taylor but he let me down last week against the Jets. Houston is still one of the worst teams in football, and even though it’s a division matchup, it’s hard to see a path for the Texans here. I’ll lean with the Texans, although it’s certainly far from my favorite game on the board.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals: LAC +3, CIN -3, o/u 50.5
The Chargers have been one of the more disappointing teams in the NFL this season. After beating the Steelers, the Chargers laid an egg against the Denver Broncos last week. The Bengals have won two in a row, and while they have been one of the more exciting stories in the league this season, they are primed for a letdown game. Justin Herbert has the intangibles to expose this Bengals defense, so long as he can be smart with the football.
These two played early last season and the Chargers escaped with a 16-13 road victory and managed to cover the -2.5 spread. Virtually the same set of circumstances for this Week 13 matchup. Coin flip game and I’ll lean towards the points for this one.
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions: DET +7.5, MIN -7.5, o/u 46.5
The Vikings failed to cover last week against San Francscio and now head to Detroit. The Lions lost in painful fashion on Thanksgiving. Detroit has been dreadful this season, and the Vikings are still fighting for a playoff spot considering how volatile the NFC has been this season. The Vikings have covered in seven of their last 10 games in Detroit. The favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 head-to-head meetings and the under is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings.
I have little faith in Detroit at the moment, and while the Vikings have been a frustrating team this season, I’ll trust them to get the job done here against the Lions. Vikings are my lean for this one.
New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins: NYG +5, MIA -5, o/u 41
The Giants aren’t as bad as people think. The same could be said for the Dolphins. Daniel Jones was just ruled out and Mike Glennon will get the start for Big Blue. This could actually be an advantage as Jones has been awful once again this season. My first thought is I’m not sure the Dolphins should be this big a favorite against anyone, regardless of the Giants injuries. Miami is riding high on a four game winning streak, with dubs over the Ravens, Texans, Jets and Panthers. This could be the prime spot to sell high on Miami.
The Giants have been on the wrong side of a lot of close games this season, and have managed to stick around in games with the Falcons and Chiefs to pair with outright wins against the Eagles, Raiders and Panthers. I’m going to lean towards the Giants here and fade the line movement as well. This was at Miami -4 earlier in the week and is now -5.5 with the Jones news, which I don’t put much stock into. Not a strong lean here, but with hope the league has played out, no favorite feels safe. The road team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven matchups.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets: PHI -6.5, NYJ -6.5, o/u 45
I just talked about how awful Daniel Jones has been, but Zach Wilson has been worse. This man has shown absolutely nothing in his rookie season. Betting against him feels like a blessing every week. The Jets are the worst team ATS this season, having covered just three times and one of those instances came when Wilson was sidelined due to injury. It feels like this team is not capable of winning two games in a row, and with Philly coming to town off a loss they should be primed and ready to go.
Jalen Hurts has been questionable for this game, which means Gardner Minshew would be in line to start assuming Hurts can’t go. I want nothing to do with the Jets. Philly has beat them the last five times they’ve clashed. Perhaps this line moves if Hurts can’t go. Either way it’s Philly or pass for me.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons: TB -11, ATL +11, o/u 50.5
This feels like too many points and an inflated line for the Bucs. Tampa is just 1-6 in their last 7 games as a road favorite, although that one win was last week agaisnt the Colts. That said, Tampa was the short three-point favorite in that game and are now laying double digits on the road. The home team is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings. These two clashed earleir in the season, and the Bucs won stedaily thanks to a pair of tunrovers from Matt Ryan.
Now the Falcons are at home. They could very easily get buried coming off their win last week versus Jacksoville. Tampa is 5-6 ATS this season, although they’ve won four games by double digits this season. I’m split here, but the Bucs have a knack for the blowout, but can they do it with no Antonio Brown? Over is 9-2 in the last 11 head-to-head matchups in Atlanta.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Los Angeles Rams: JAX +12.5, LAR -12.5, o/u 48.5
The biggest spread on the board. The Rams have lagged in the middle portion of the season. Is this their chance to get right? Or will the Jags stun the Rams like they did the Bills a few weeks ago? I’m not comfortable playing either side here so I’ll pass the game.
Washington Football Team @ Las Vegas Raiders: WFT +1.5, LV -1.5, o/u 49.5
The Jack Del Rio revenge game? Del Rio is now the DC in Washington, but he is the only head coach to post a winning record for the Raiders in the last 34 years and the only coach to lead the franchise to the playoffs since 2003. I’m sure he has had this game circled on his calendar for a few months now. He never made the trek out to Las Vegas as he was canned after a 6-10 season in favor of bringing back Jon Gruden.
The Raiders beat the Cowboys on Thanksgiving and now are back home as the short favorite against Washington. The trend with the Raiders this season is score 30-plus points and win, or fail to put up 20-plus points and lose mercifully. Vegas has struggled at defending their home turf, with losses to the Bengals, Chiefs, and Bears at home. Vegas is 2-1 against the NFC East this season. I like the juice with Washington but don’t have an official play for this one. Vegas is just 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers: BAL -4.5, PIT +4.5, o/u 44
The Pittsburgh Steelers have absolutely crushed me the last few weeks. I’ve said on the show how I have a Mike Tomlin problem. I love him as a coach and believe in his ability to rally the troops. I should really stay away from the black and yellow this week, but this matchup is all too enticing. This is one of the tighter divsion matchups over the last few seasons. Three of the last four head-to-head matchups have ben one-score games, and the Steelers have won outright in each of the last two. I’m tempted to throw everything with the Steelers out the window for this game. I’ve been buying low on them the last few weeks, but now they are close to the cellar. The public is backing Baltimore here as we saw the line open Ravens -3.5, and is now -4.5.
Steelers are 17-4-2 ATS in their last 23 games as a home underdog and the dog is 10-1-2 ATS in this matchup since 2015. Baltimore has won in back-to-back weeks, but only posted 32 points in the span. Lamar Jackson looked awful last week, yet the Ravens still got the dub. It feels like Baltimore is due for a stinker game, and they have beeen suseptiable to it this season, losing to the Dolphins and Bengals in blowout fashion.
I think this will be a close game, and the Steelers are on the right side of the trends/history here. I’m goping back to the well with the Steelers this week. God bless Mike Tomlin and may he lead us to the green.
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks: SF -3.5, SEA +3.5, o/u 45.5
Seattle has owned this matchup historically, covering 11 of the last 13 games played against the 49ers in front of the 12s. The Seahawks have been rough this season, and the return of Russell Wilson has yet to get the team back on track. Seattle has won the last three head-to-head matchups, and is 4-3 ATS in the last seven matchups against the division rival dating back to 2018. The 49ers have hit their stride the last three weeks with quality victories over the Los Angeles Rams, Jacksonville Jaguars and Minnesota Vikings. With the exception of their victory against the Eagles, SF has posted at least 30 points in each of its victories this season.
The Seahawks have lost three in a row, failing to score over 20 points during this span. The 49ers are the public side here, and I’m leaning towards the public. I just get really negative vibes from the Seahawks. It feels like the remenants of the Carroll-Wilson era are crumbling, and overall there does not seem to buch enthusiam from the team. It’s hard for me to back a team that is down and out the way the Seahawks have been this season. To that point, the NFL has been whacky this season so it wouldn’t be all that suprising if Seattle flipped the switch. Wilson has looked shaky since returing from injury. If you like to play the historical trends, the Seahakws are your side. I lean with the 49ers here, but I do call them the Fraudy9ers for a reason, this is the perfect spot for their true colors to shine.
Sunday Night Football
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs: DEN +9.5, KC -9.5, o/u 47
The Broncos just might be my favorite bet of the week. Denver has won three of its last four games, and now head to KC to take on the mighty Chiefs, a team they have failed to beat in 11 consecutive games. The Chiefs have been awful at covering spreads in these spots, posting 1-5 marks in their last 6 games following an ATS win and as a home favorite. KC is just 4-7 ATS this season, and they have yet to cover this big of a number this season. The Chiefs are always inflated when it comes to spread betting, and they go up against one of the most profitable QBs of our generation: Teddy Bridgewater.
Teddy B. is 26-9 ATS as a dog in his career, and 20-5 ATS when he’s a road underdog. Denver is getting healthier with the expected return of Garrett Bolles among other key players.
The road team is 12-3 ATS in this matchup since 2013, and this is probably the best version of the Broncos the Chiefs will face with Patrick Mahomes under center. The NFL has just been so whacky this season, and with this being the largest spread on the board this week it almost seems destined to be a stinker, especially when you mix in the fact that this game was flexed into Sunday Night Football. The Chiefs are coming off the bye, although that has proved to be a bit wishy washy for teams this season. Perhaps there’s a little lag from KC out of the gate and we know the Broncos defense is great at limiting touchdowns. This just seems like too many points. I’m taking the Broncos.
Monday Night Football
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills: NE +2.5, BUF -2.5, o/u 42.5
The Pats have won six in a row and are looking ike the evil empire once again. Can they ripoff another win, this time against the Buffalo Bills? Thanks to their stout run, the Pats find themselvs in position not only to make the playoffs, but potentially win the divison. A win this week would go a long way in cemeting their case.
The road team is 11-2-1 ATS in the last 14 head-to-head matchups. Mac Jones has looked sharp and they are playing as good as anyone in the NFL this season. The Bills are 3-2 in their last 5 games, alternating between wins and losses during that span. This is the marquee game of the week and Bellichik has owned this spot historically, posting a 14-3 mark ATS in his last 17 matchups in Buffalo. On the flip, Buffalo is 3-1-1 in their last five meetings with the Patriots.
I’m going to lean with the Bills here. They have to get right and Josh Allen needs to get locked in like he was earlier in this season. They are the home team, and laying less than a field goal. I’ll take my chances here.