Week 4 of the NFL betting slate is upon us, which means it is time to run the board for the Mile High Sports primer! Last week, we had some nice reads, cashing in on the Rams and Packers outright and riding the under in the Broncos-Jets game.
We have some exciting news to share about the future of the primer. Thrilled to announce the world-famous SuperBook Sports will be a sponsor for the primer this NFL season! SuperBook sports is a premier sports betting operation in the United States with extensive Colorado connections. The SuperBook Sports team is led by sports betting industry icon Jay Kornegay, a Colorado native and one of the most respected and successful operators in the sports book industry.
There are quite a few interesting games this week, and I like a couple of road favorites at first glance… which makes my stomach turn to be honest. So let’s dive into the Week 4 slate and get a read on these games from a betting perspective.
The overall goal of this primer is to paint a picture of the weekend NFL betting slate so you can dive into it with your head on straight. Sports betting is here, and if you are going to bet, you might as well get an edge, right?
Manage your bankroll. Stick to your units. Watch the lines.
New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints: NO -7, NYG +7, o/u 42
The New York Football Giants blew a prime chance to get their first win of the season in Week 3 at home against the Atlanta Falcons. New York will travel to New Orleans to take on the Saints, who are fresh off of a road win in New England against the Patriots. Joe Judge’s disparaging comments about the analytics provide a real sense of the tough-nosed grit he’s allegedly instilled within the organization. Daniel Jones hasn’t looked all that bad through three weeks. He has yet to throw an interception, but he has also only found the end zone twice through the air. He’s posted ratings of 90.7, 102.2 and 90.9, respectively the first three weeks and if the Giants can get some flow on offense, they could cover this spread against an underwhelming New Orleans offense to this point.
Jameis Winston has yet to eclipse 200 yards passing per game, and the Giants have covered in seven of their last eight games as a road underdog during the Judge regime. This will be the Saints’ first game in New Orleans, so there is an emotional factor to consider here.
This total is really low, and for good reason. A game the Saints should win, but cover, I’m not sold. Their Week 1 win over Green Bay is hollow to me, considering the Packers straight up did not come to play. A good game from Danny Jones could lead to the Giants covering the spread.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles: KC -7, PHI +7, o/u 54.5
What the hell is wrong with the Chiefs? I want to think they have what it takes to go into Philly and slaughter an Eagles team my Cowboys ravaged less than a week ago. Kansas City looks lost, but the Eagles are truly dreadful. I just don’t feel comfortable laying this many points with the Chiefs right now. They have yet to cover a spread this season, and I can see that trend continuing into Week 4 despite how bad the Eagles looked. Kansas City is 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games… which is nearly an entire season of Ls ATS.
I’m probably passing this game entirely, although the under is intriguing. The Eagles Week 1 offensive performance was a flash in the pan, and the Chiefs are far from perfect. The under is 4-0 in the Chiefs last four games coming off a loss.
Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys: CAR +4, DAL -4, o/u 51.5
I love this game. As always, proceed with caution as I am a Cowboys fan, but I love us in this spot. I did go back-and-forth at the -3.5 for the home game against Philly, but the Cowboys showed their ability to run it up. They’ve looked sharp in all three games this season and now get a good test against the undefeated Panthers.
Like the Broncos, the Panthers have had a relatively easy opening schedule with games against the Jets and Houston Texans, although they managed to get the best of New Orleans in Week 2, which was impressive. That said, how good are the Saints this season? Without CMC, I think the Panthers will struggle to keep up with the Cowboys’ offense if they come out gunning. With that, the Cowboys are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game, and the Panthers’ defense has been solid to start the year.
I’m laying the points here as I think the Cowboys are one of the four best teams in the NFC this season. However, if you think the Cowboys’ offense struggles out of the gate, which could very well happen, then the under is the play for you.
Under is 6-0 in the Panthers’ last 6 games overall, and Carolina has covered 6 in a row as a road underdog.
Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills: BUF -17, HOU +17, o/u 47
Big spread. Bad team vs. good team. Much better games on the slate, so I’ll probably pass this one. Tyrod Taylor won’t play, so the Texans will probably look awful, especially in a hostile environment. I’ll be throwing the Bills in my ML parlay for the weekend, but that’s about it with this one.
Cleveland Browns @ Minnesota Vikings: CLE -2, MIN +2, o/u 51.5
This should be a great game if the Vikings come to play like they did last week. After dropping the ball the first two weeks, the Vikings earned a solid home victory against the Seattle Seahawks last week, and looked good doing it. Kirk Cousins is 20-9 ATS as a dog in the early time slot, and this feels like a game many can overlook as it’s tucked into the morning slate.
After starting slowly against the Bears, the Browns throttled Chicago in the second half en route to an easy victory, although it was the second consecutive week in which Cleveland faced little offensive resistance. Minnesota has covered four of their last five against the Browns, and Cleveland is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 as a road favorite. The Browns are the publics’ darling child, but I’m still not sold. Baker Mayfield has looked shaky, and we saw they can crumble against a high octane offense. It’s a sell-high spot on the Browns for me. Lean Vikings ATS.
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears: CHI -3, DET +3, o/u 42
This line opened Chicago -6 and quickly moved to Bears -3, where it’s held steady throughout the week. I would have gladly played the Lions at +6, but the ship has sailed there. I’m getting similar vibes with this game as I did in Week 2 against the Bengals.
Chicago looked gross against the Rams in Week 1, and we saw the line move big time, and the Bears wound up with the outright double-digit victory against the Bengals in Week 2. Last week Chicago looked foul against Cleveland and now take on a winless Lions team. The Lions have looked alright this season and should have won last week against Baltimore.
The underdog has covered the last 3 ATS in this head-to-head matchup, but I find myself wanting to fade the line movement. The Bears have yet to name a starting QB which will be the deciding factor in this one for me. Over 70 percent of the tickets are on the Lions here, and that just feels wrong, at least at +3 for a winless Lions team against a Bears franchise that has been in the playoffs two of the last three years.
Lions are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Chicago, but the Bears looked bad as can be last week. It’s Bears or pass for me at this point.
Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets: TEN -7, NYJ +7, o/u 44.5
This could be the trap game of the week. At first glance, the Titans seem like the surefire lock to win and cover this one. The Jets have been the worst team in the NFL this season and return home with nothing to feel good about. Zach Wilson has looked putrid while Sam Darnold is 3-0. Typical Jets. I do think Robert Saleh is a good head coach.
This game is less about the Jets and more about the Titans for me. They’ve looked all out of sorts this season… AJ Brown is out for the game, and Julio Jones is clearly not 100 percent. So get ready for this, the Jets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 head-to-head matchups with Tennessee. This could be the only time this season I consider playing the Jets ATS, but I honestly kind of like them here. The Titans have won seven of their last nine road games, but five were won by less than a touchdown, including a pair of overtime victories.
The public is all over the Titans, and this just screams trap game for me. Take the points or pass.
Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins: MIA -2, IND +2 o/u 42.5
Two teams struggling to find their footing out of the gate in 2021. Miami lost a game they could have won on the road last week in Vegas. The same goes for the Colts in Tennessee last week. While the Colts are winless, they have had three challenging games to start the year against the Rams, Seahawks and Titans. Now they will have a chance to find their footing against a depleted Dolphins team.
Jacoby Brissett is as good of a backup as a team could ask for, but I think the Colts are the better team here. The Colts can break out and get a W here on the road. I’ll take the points. Underdog is 13-2 in the last 15 head-to-head matchups. Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings, and I’ll take a look at the under as well.
Washington Football Team @ Atlanta Falcons: WFT -2, ATL +2, o/u 48
This was one of the lines that caught my eye at first glance. The Falcons labored to victory over the Giants, and their offense is still trying to round into form. Kyle Pitts was nowhere to be found, and the Falcons continue to spin in circles. I’m not putting much stock into the win last week and think Washington is the better team at the moment. The Washington secondary is suspect, but the Flacons have shown little on offense so far this season. It’s a coin flip game, and fading Atlanta has worked out well for me.
Road team is 4-0 ATS, and the underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. I lean Washington here as well as the under. Under is 16-2 in the last 18 games in October between the two. Under is 6-1 in Falcons last seven games as a home underdog.
Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos: BAL PK, DEN PK, o/u 45
The Broncos’ first real test of the season. A majority of people outside of Colorado are leaning towards Baltimore for this one which is why we have seen the line flip. Plenty of wise guys jumped in on the Ravens +2 when the line opened but now we are looking at the Ravens as the slight favorite. This game is a pick’ em, and I’m going to be riding with the hot hand in this game.
Let’s start with the total… I’m going to head back to the well with the first half under. It’s set at 23 and has cashed in every game to this point. If the Ravens do win this game, I don’t think it will be in blowout fashion. Justin Tucker will be busy, and it’ll take time for Lamar Jackson to get going. As Benjamin Allbright pointed out to me on Twitter, Jackson has a QB rating of 38.5 in the first quarter this season. The Broncos’ offense has yet to explode in a first half, and I don’t think that will happen this week with the injuries at wide receiver. I love the first half and full game under in this game.
Now for a side. Teddy Bridgewater just might become my favorite QB of all-time. The man is 39-14 ATS in his career as a starter and has brought a different energy to the Broncos locker room this season. I get the Broncos have played the three worst teams in the league, but they’ve looked sound in those games. The Ravens have been up and down, and the factors of playing on the road in altitude could come into play. I’m not going against the hot hand, and the Broncos are one of the few teams with a legitimate home-field advantage. The Broncos have looked like a solid team to this point. Let’s see if they can keep it up.
Home team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers: SF -3, SEA +3, o/u 52
The Fugazi bowl! The four teams in the NFC West all go head-to-head this week, so this Sunday is sure to be critical for the state of the division. Both teams are coming off of tough losses, although this will be the second consecutive road game for Seattle and the second game at home in a row for San Fran. Will the 49ers drop two in a row at home? That seems unlikely for Kyle Shanahan at first glance. That said, the Seahawks have dominated this matchup ATS, posting a record of 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 meetings with the 49ers. Additionally, the 49ers are 5-21-1 ATS in their previous 27 games as a home favorite.
Both of these teams are frauds, but I think the Seahawks are a little bit more put together. It’s a coin flip game for two teams on the same playing field. I like the trends here and will take the points.
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams: LAR -4.5, AZ +4.5, o/u 55
Another great game involving the Rammies with a bit of line movement. The Rams opened at -6, but it quickly fell to -4.5. I admit I’m a little surprised by this. If anything, I thought the line would go up, but what do I know. If you’ve read the other primers, you know I love the Rams this season, and they were my pick of the week for Week 3. The Cardinals showed some vulnerability for the second week in a row, and now face their most formidable opponent of the season. I’m not a Kliff Kingsbury guy, and while Kyler Murray is playing at a high level, I just love this Rams team.
The Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC West and 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The Rams have covered eight in a row against the Cardinals, and I think they’ll continue to roll here. It’s a letdown spot for both teams. Give me the Rams.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Green Bay Packers: GB -6.5, PIT +6.5, o/u 45.5
Who are the Steelers these days? Two bad losses in consecutive weeks and now faced with a buzzsaw in Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers found his mojo last week, and if the energy arrives over for both teams, the Steelers don’t stand a chance.
The Steelers also tend to start slow ATS and, once they settle in, historically, they have been profitable under Mike Tomlin. Pittsburgh is 35-14-2 ATS under Mike Tomlin once Week 3 comes around.
If you want to hold on to one lasting trend from the old guard, it’s this: Steelers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home. So it’s a buy-low spot. Damn near everyone is down on the Steelers and Big Ben looks like a senior citizen out there.
That said, the Packers have been inconsistent collectively this season. Will they parlay their win from last week to Week 4? Or can the Steelers pull a rabbit out of the hat? Eighty-three percent of the tickets are on Green Bay. Take the points or pass for me. There are plenty of other options out there, but this could be a fun game between two iconic franchises if Big Ben turns back the clock. The availability of TJ Watt will be a deciding factor in this one.
Sunday Night Football
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New England Patriots: TB -7, NE +7, o/u 49.5
The game of the week. I actually bet this game before the Bucs lost last week, knowing the line would skip up. I got the Bucs at -5.5, but it jumped to -7 and has held pretty firm throughout the week. If you are on betting Twitter, you have probably seen all the news about the sheer amount of tickets, dollars, parlays, and teasers that have the Bucs over the Pats. It’s literally the Bucs against the world from a ticket perspective, which feels disrespectful and inappropriate for Bill Belichick.
— Jay Kornegay (@JayKornegay) September 30, 2021
The Pats have not looked good. Mac Jones looks like a rookie, and the Bucs are looking to repeat as champions. I’m sitting on the -5.5, and that’s about it in this one for me. This is one of the few instances where I’ll be able to sit back and enjoy this game as a pure spectacle regardless of dollars. I just think Belichick will have something drawn up. Maybe the Bucs blow them out, perhaps the Pats have some fight. I’m just going to sit back and enjoy the ride for this one.
If you haven’t bet the game at this point, I’d say go ultimate contrarian and take the points. Why not?
Monday Night Football
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers: LVR +3, LAC -3, o/u 51.5
Another great divisional matchup for MNF. Both of these teams are riding high as the Raiders are undefeated, and the Chargers are fresh off a win in Kansas City. This is a game with significant implications for the Broncos and will play a role in the early definition of the AFC West.
I’ve heard a lot of chatter about how this will be a home game for the Raiders given their California connection, but that might not matter for Justin Herbert. He went into KC last week and delivered an incredible performance with 281 passing yards and four touchdowns.
This is a prototypical Gruden letdown spot, but so was last week. The Raiders generally looked good so far, and Derek Carr is a big reason why. This should be an epic game, and the line is just about right. Two teams that are close to even, I’m inclined just to take the points and let it ride.
I’m going to look at the trends for this one. Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings, and Underdog is 18-6 ATS in their previous 24 meetings.
I’ll take a look at the under here as well, as it is 16-4-1 in the last 21 meetings in Los Angeles.
Aniello Piro is our Digital Media Manager. Piro has covered every professional sports team in town at one point or another and has been with Mile High Sports since he was in high school. AP currently covers the Denver Nuggets and Colorado Rockies for Mile High Sports and hosts the 20th and Blake Podcast + the MHS Nuggets podcast. Piro recently graduated from the Metropolitan State University of Denver with a bachelor’s degree in journalism and a minor in communication studies. You can follow AP on social media to stay up with his NFL Betting primers @MediaByAP